23456 Ottawa Rd · Apple Valley, CA 92308

$88,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Land · 23 Days on market

Built 1982

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Double Wide 2 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home nestled in nice and quit senior mobile home estates, very close to apple valley senior center. Brand new carpet through out, very good condition, large covered front porch to enjoy. Space rent only $280.00. Park has pool, jucuzzi and club house to enjoy. Washer & Dryer & refrigerator stay. Master bath has sunkin tub and a seperate walkin shower, for only $38,000 or Best offer.

Key facts

• Plantation shutters
• Hickory cabinets
• Completely renovated

Tags

• COMPLETELY RENOVATED
• GATED
• NEW WINDOWS
• PLANTATION SHUTTERS
• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• HICKORY CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $689 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 3.5% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#532 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Apple Valley Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #955 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 417 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $89k implies a 169% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,566 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.21%
• DSCR: 2.48
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $31,685
• Equity at exit: $13,255

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.75×
• Total profit: $93,404
• Equity at exit: $7,686

Cash invested: $24,892 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92308

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 417
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$466
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,334/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $689

Break-even live

Break-even rent $778

Max offer price $88,900

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $750	-5% $720	+0% $689	+5% $658	+10% $628
Rent	-10% $559	-5% $624	+0% $689	+5% $754	+10% $819
Rate	-1.0pp $734	-0.5pp $712	base $689	+0.5pp $666	+1.0pp $642

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,225
• Closing costs: $2,667
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $88,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $88,900 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $88,900 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $88,900 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $88,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $88,900 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $88,900 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $88,900 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $88,900 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $88,900 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $88,900 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $88,900 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $88,900 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $88,900 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $88,900 Active
16. 2022-08-01
    historical
17. 2022-04-05
    price $69,900
18. 2022-03-04
    listed $80,000 Active
19. 2006-08-22
    soldstatus $33,000 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    Double Wide 2 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home nestled in nice and quit senior mobile home estates, very close to apple valley senior center. Brand new carpet through out, very good condition, large covered front porch to enjoy. Space rent only $280.00. Park has pool, jucuzzi and club house to enjoy. Washer & Dryer & refrigerator stay. Master bath has sunkin tub and a seperate walkin shower, for only $38,000 or Best offer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,797
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,980
• − Property taxes: −$1,334
• − Insurance: −$444
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,584
• − Management: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$2,586
• Taxable income: $7,286
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,749
• After-tax cash flow: $6,519/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600017
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,264
• Composite: 30.91/100
• National rank: #11351
• State rank: #955 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #17800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 83,889
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,709
• Household income: $66,568
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1389.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 19% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.60%
• Current HPI: 359.2305
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.30%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+169.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $88,900 FSBO.com
• 2022-08-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-04-05 Price Changed $69,900 CRMLS
• 2022-03-04 Listed $80,000 CRMLS
• 2006-08-22 Sold (MLS) $33,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,119 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.