17536 White Oak Orch · Deerwood, TX 77306

$139,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1987 0.34 ac lot $109/sqft · at area comps Est $144k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home, offering affordability & convenience in a great location. Feel right at home when you step into a lovely family room with a nice kitchen. The open-concept family room flows seamlessly into the kitchen and family area, featuring with windows that allow natural light to pour in. The larger yard and perfect front porch are made for morning coffee or sunsets. Lots of space for the Kids to play out front or in back. -Endless Possibilities -Pool, Swing Set, Garden, Shed, or whatever your heart desires! Conveniently located near Hwy 105, I-45 & 59. About 15 minutes away from I-45 and I-69. Conveniently located near Conroe, Lake Conroe. A

Key facts

• Open-concept
• Front porch
• Larger yard

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT
• LARGER YARD
• FRONT PORCH
• NATURAL LIGHT
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• LOW TAX RATE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces north
• Construction: Built in 1987; Wood siding; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Front porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other rooms)
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen/family room combo; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $458 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 5.4% in Deerwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Creighton El (math 31% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 940 students, 92% FRL); Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 34% district-wide (51 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $140k implies a 1299% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,801 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.05%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,413
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -2.36%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17532 Old Highway 105 E	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-2%)	11mo	$190,000	$152	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $6,537
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $43,312
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,758 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,664/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $458

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,178

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $538	-5% $498	+0% $458	+5% $419	+10% $379
Rent	-10% $320	-5% $389	+0% $458	+5% $528	+10% $597
Rate	-1.0pp $529	-0.5pp $494	base $458	+0.5pp $422	+1.0pp $385

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6621 W Forest Rd Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	952	$1,450	$1.52	44d	1	0.45mi
2140 Cedar Bend Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1871	$1,995	$1.07	11d	1	1.16mi
15743 Del Norte Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1811	$1,895	$1.05	44d	1	1.22mi
15581 Briar Forest Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,545	$1.10	0d	1	1.31mi
10050 Cerritos Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,499	$1.07	25d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 45 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,900 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    status Active 752-char remark
16. 2026-04-17
    historical Active Under Contract 752-char remark
17. 2026-03-17
    price $141,000 752-char remark
18. 2026-02-08
    listed $145,000 Active 752-char remark
19. 2026-02-06
    historical
20. 2026-01-16
    price $145,000
21. 2025-10-30
    listed $149,000 Active
22. 2025-04-16
    historical
23. 2025-04-07
    price $155,000
24. 2025-04-07
    listed $150,000 Active
25. 2025-04-05
    historical
26. 2025-03-13
    price $154,999
27. 2025-02-08
    price $159,999
28. 2025-01-17
    listed $165,000 Active
29. 2025-01-11
    historical
30. 2024-08-23
    historical
31. 2024-07-20
    historical
32. 2024-07-20
    listed $173,500 Active
33. 2024-06-01
    listed $177,000 Active
34. 2024-05-31
    historical
35. 2024-05-06
    price $179,000
36. 2024-04-27
    listed $185,000 Active
37. 2024-04-26
    historical
38. 2023-04-21
    soldstatus Sold
39. 2023-04-21
    soldstatus
40. 2023-03-11
    status Pending
41. 2023-03-03
    status Option Pending
42. 2022-12-12
    price $139,900
43. 2022-11-02
    listed $165,000 Active
44. 2021-06-25
    soldstatus
45. 2004-07-28
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,664 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,560 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: +$896/yr (+$75/mo · 53.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,101
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,664
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,688
• − Management: −$1,688
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $3,454
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$829
• After-tax cash flow: $4,673/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deerwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Deerwood, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1299.0% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $141,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-08 Listed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Listed $149,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-07 Price Changed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-07 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-13 Price Changed $154,999 HARMLS
• 2025-02-08 Price Changed $159,999 HARMLS
• 2025-01-17 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-11 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2024-08-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-07-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-07-20 Listed $173,500 HARMLS
• 2024-06-01 Listed $177,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-05-06 Price Changed $179,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-27 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-26 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2023-04-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-04-21 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-03-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-03-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-12-12 Price Changed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2022-11-02 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2021-06-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,664 · -20.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.