6933 Backlanding Rd · Preston, MD 21643

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1990 0.92 ac lot Est $256k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• ARV discount +2.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Have you been looking for a home where comfort and peaceful country living come together beautifully? Look no further! This well-maintained one-level rancher offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a thoughtful layout designed for both privacy and functionality. The primary suite is situated on one side of the home and features its own private en-suite bathroom, while the additional two bedrooms and a full bathroom are located on the opposite side—perfect for guests, family, or a home office setup. Enjoy the convenience of single-level living along with recent updates, including a new roof, windows, siding, and partial hardwood flooring (2022), a new well pump (2023), and a water

Key facts

• 0.92 acre lot
• 8 parking spots
• Built 1990

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-216 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (13.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (30.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (30.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#245 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Dorchester County Public Schools (rural): math 10% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #23 of 24 in MD (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Dorchester County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dorchester County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $122k; list at $285k implies a 134% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,330 (30.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.25%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $256,256
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6941 Back Landing Rd	0.11mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (+9%)	22mo	$279,900	$224	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $141,369
• Equity at exit: $256,751

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.35×
• Total profit: $426,964
• Equity at exit: $553,692

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21643

• Home prices YoY: 15.5%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,983 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,035/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,257

Max offer price $246,821

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-55	-5% $-135	+0% $-216	+5% $-297	+10% $-377
Rent	-10% $-373	-5% $-294	+0% $-216	+5% $-138	+10% $-59
Rate	-1.0pp $-73	-0.5pp $-144	base $-216	+0.5pp $-290	+1.0pp $-365

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-27
   price $285,000
4. 2026-04-27
   historical
5. 2026-04-23
   listed $275,000 Active
6. 2026-04-17
   historical $275,000
7. 2008-05-23
   historical
8. 2008-03-09
   listed
9. 2003-08-14
   soldstatus $122,000
10. 2003-08-08
    soldstatus $122,000
11. 2003-06-09
    listed $122,000
12. 2003-06-09
    historical
13. 1991-05-17
    soldstatus $73,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,035 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,571 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$536/yr (+$45/mo · 26.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$2,035
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,904
• − Management: −$1,904
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$7,724
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,854
• After-tax cash flow: $-740/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dorchester County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400300
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $46,767
• Composite: 14.65/100
• National rank: #9404
• State rank: #23 of 24 in MD

Livability — Preston

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #245
• US rank: #12172

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,176

Population outlook (Dorchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,699 people
• By 2030: 31,054 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 29,712 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 28,618 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 28,436 · -10.3%
• By 2100: 28,937 · -8.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 28% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Dorchester

• 2024 margin: R (+14.6) · D 41.6% · R 56.1% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.3pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -14.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.6 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+16.0 2012: R+6.6 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.36%
• Current HPI: 390.419
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+290.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-28 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-27 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $285,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $275,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-17 Coming Soon $275,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-05-23 Delisted — MRIS
• 2008-03-09 Listed — MRIS
• 2003-08-14 Sold (Public Records) $122,000 Public Records
• 2003-08-08 Sold (MLS) $122,000 MRIS
• 2003-06-09 Delisted — MRIS
• 2003-06-09 Listed $122,000 MRIS
• 1991-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,035 · +12.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.