8932 Manor Loop #207 · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34202

$159,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 752 sqft · Condo public records · 367 Days on market

Built 2001 $309/mo HOA · 16% of rent ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. PRICE IMPROVEMENT! Here’s your chance to own this beautiful 1 bed/1 bath, 752 sqft condo in the #1 multi-generational community in the US, Lakewood Ranch! Walk up from your front door landing into this light and bright unit right across from the pool, sand volleyball court and gym. Located in the “The Village at Townpark”, you are 1.2 miles from grocery, shopping, and medical. 2.7 miles from Sarasota’s newest and largest indoor mall University Town Center, 4.6 mi from the new Waterside Place, Sarasota’s first lakeside shopping destination, and 18 miles from Siesta Key Beach, voted #1 beach in the country year over year.

Key facts

• Large storage closet
• Lake views
• Screened-in patio

Tags

• SCREENED-IN PATIO
• IN-UNIT LAUNDRY
• LARGE STORAGE CLOSET
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• LAKE VIEWS
• HEATED POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $132 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 497 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 367 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $56k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 367 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.57%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.2% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-10,488
• Equity at exit: $36,869

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-8,086
• Equity at exit: $37,442

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34202

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 497
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,962 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,504/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$309
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,795

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8932 Manor Loop #205 Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,900	$1.76	23d	1	0.03mi
8926 Manor Loop Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1165	$1,800	$1.55	23d	2	0.03mi
8917 Manor Loop #205 Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$2,150	$1.99	23d	1	0.07mi
7411 Vista Way #203 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,800	$1.67	23d	1	0.23mi
8925 77th Ter E Lakewood Ranch, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$2,000	$1.91	15d	67	0.23mi
8858 White Sage Loop Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1064	$1,900	$1.79	3d	1	0.35mi
8828 White Sage Loop Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1092	$1,975	$1.81	3d	1	0.43mi
8809 White Sage Loop Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1064	$2,200	$2.07	11d	1	0.43mi
8808 White Sage Loop Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1092	$2,300	$2.11	23d	1	0.45mi
7350 Black Walnut Way Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1064	$1,995	$1.88	23d	1	0.50mi
7341 Black Walnut Way Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1100	$2,300	$2.09	23d	1	0.53mi
8100 Natures Way Lakewood Ranch, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1091	$1,563	$1.43	1d	19	0.75mi
8240 Lakewood Ranch Blvd Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$1,564	$1.53	3d	18	1.03mi
6325 Health Park Way Lakewood Ranch, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1114	$1,790	$1.61	3d	22	1.11mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $309 · $3,708/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-01-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-29
   price $159,000
3. 2025-11-12
   status Active
4. 2025-11-10
   historical
5. 2025-09-26
   status Active
6. 2025-09-11
   status Pending
7. 2025-08-27
   price $169,000
8. 2025-07-30
   price $179,000
9. 2025-05-02
   price $189,000
10. 2025-02-28
    price $199,000
11. 2025-02-06
    price $205,000
12. 2025-01-22
    price $210,000
13. 2025-01-10
    listed $215,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,504 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,504 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,545
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,504
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,884
• − Management: −$1,884
• − HOA: −$3,708
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$761
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$183
• After-tax cash flow: $1,771/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,197
• Household income: $121,659
• Rent vs Own: 20.8% rent · 79.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 574.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Current HPI: 240.7087
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.54%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-26.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $159,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-12 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-26 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $189,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-28 Price Changed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-06 Price Changed $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-22 Price Changed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-10 Listed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,504 · -9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.