The Oriole II Plan · La Marque, TX 77568

$262,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,061 sqft · SingleFamily · 460 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience the best of two-story living with the Oriole II. The first floor features a spacious, open-concept design that connects the family room, kitchen, and dining area seamlessly. A conveniently located half bath is situated across from the staircase. Upstairs, youll find three bedrooms, two full baths, and a loft space. The primary bedroom and bathroom are thoughtfully placed on the opposite side of the loft, offering privacy and direct access to the laundry room. You can replace the loft with a fourth bedroom if you need additional sleeping space.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Half bath
• Primary bedroom

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• HALF BATH
• LOFT SPACE
• PRIMARY BEDROOM
• DIRECT ACCESS TO LAUNDRY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $262,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $303,628.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $263k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-450 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (9.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,136 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Hitchcock ISD (suburban): math 28% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #628 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hitchcock Pri (453 students, 85% FRL); Crosby Middle (math 25% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 410 students, 84% FRL); Hitchcock H S (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 470 students, 77% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 783 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 460 days — a 12% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $208,628 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 460 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.35%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $303,628
• List price: $262,990
• Delta: -13.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
622 Cherry Tree Dr	0.03mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,012 (-2%)	1mo	$305,900	$152	87
828 Grassy Knoll Trl	0.33mi	3/2.0	2,070 (+0%)	2mo	$260,000	$126	80
508 Forest Village Cir	0.56mi	3/2.0	2,042 (-1%)	0mo	$275,000	$135	70
873 Grassy Knoll Trl	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,140 (+4%)	1mo	$310,000	$145	67
1226 Sacred Light Ln	0.50mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,069 (+0%)	3mo	$292,990	$142	67
429 Branch Oak Ct	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,877 (-9%)	1mo	$285,000	$152	62
765 Camden Valley Ln	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,941 (-6%)	0mo	$285,900	$147	61
862 Sand Crab Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,873 (-9%)	3mo	$255,000	$136	59
1085 Garnet Star Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,872 (-9%)	2mo	$306,990	$164	53
1341 Blue Moon Ln	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,872 (-9%)	2mo	$295,990	$158	51
521 Waterside Ridge Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,830 (-11%)	3mo	$259,950	$142	46
1234 Sacred Light Ln	0.52mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,364 (+15%)	3mo	$318,990	$135	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-75,826
• Equity at exit: $45,272

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-94,396
• Equity at exit: $26,252

Cash invested: $85,016 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 125 active · 44 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.7 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $289,900 ($148/sqft)
• Median days on market: 82 d
• This list price: 13% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -0.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 783
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,086 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,592
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$380 /mo · $4,554/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-450

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,656

Max offer price $238,491

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-240	-5% $-345	+0% $-450	+5% $-555	+10% $-660
Rent	-10% $-615	-5% $-533	+0% $-450	+5% $-368	+10% $-285
Rate	-1.0pp $-297	-0.5pp $-373	base $-450	+0.5pp $-529	+1.0pp $-609

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,907
• Closing costs: $9,109
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
453 Maple Bend Ln La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,071	$1.11	69d	1	0.60mi
8208 Ash Rd Texas City, TX	4.0	2.0	1701	$1,795	$1.06	93d	1	1.43mi
6218 Red Oak Dr Hitchcock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,472	$1.05	0d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $262,990 Active 460 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $262,990 Active 458 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $262,990 Active 457 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $262,990 Active 456 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $262,990 Active 455 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $262,990 Active 452 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $262,990 Active 450 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $262,990 Active 449 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $262,990 Active 447 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $262,990 Active 445 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $262,990 Active 444 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $262,990 Active 443 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $262,990 Active 442 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $262,990 Active 441 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $262,990 Active 439 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $262,990 Active 438 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $262,990 Active 437 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $262,990 Active 436 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $262,990 Active 435 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $262,990 Active 434 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $262,990 Active 433 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $262,990 Active 432 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $262,990 Active 431 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $262,990 Active 430 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $262,990 Active 428 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $262,990 Active 427 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $262,990 Active 426 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $262,990 Active 425 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $262,990 Active 424 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $262,990 Active 423 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $262,990 Active 422 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $262,990 Active 421 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $262,990 Active 420 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $262,990 Active 419 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $262,990 Active 418 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $262,990 Active 417 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $262,990 Active 415 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $262,990 Active 413 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $262,990 Active 412 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $262,990 Active 409 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $262,990 Active 408 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $262,990 Active 407 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $262,990 Active 406 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $262,990 Active 404 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $262,990 Active 403 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $262,990 Active 400 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $262,990 Active 399 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $262,990 Active 398 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $262,990 Active 395 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $262,990 Active 394 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,035
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,008
• − Property taxes: −$4,554
• − Insurance: −$1,518
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,003
• − Management: −$2,003
• − Depreciation: −$8,833
• Taxable loss: −$10,884
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,612
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,790/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,305–$30,915 screening

The Oriole II Plan is in excellent condition with minimal maintenance required. It offers a good return on investment with updates focusing on curb appeal and functionality.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and appearance ↑
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hitchcock Pri Middle Crosby Middle F TX #1,103/1,662 Nat'l #9,290/14,009 High Hitchcock H S D- TX #591/1,632 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hitchcock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823310
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,041
• Composite: 25.5/100
• National rank: #7439
• State rank: #628 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — La Marque

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1136
• US rank: #20037

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: La Marque, TX
• County: Galveston County · 390,640 people
• City population: 49,936
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $262,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $260,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-06 Listed $255,990 Zillow