425 Washington Ave · Dunkirk, NY 14048

$114,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,364 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 131 Days on market

Built 1902 7,200 sqft lot Est $116k · at est. ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Spacious and bright 5-bedroom, 2-bath home in the City of Dunkirk! Enjoy the inviting front sunroom with French doors, flowing into a large living and dining room with beautiful hardwood floors and an impressive staircase! Cozy den, first floor laundry, and a modern eat-in kitchen make everyday living easy! Fenced backyard and a 3-car detached garage are added bonuses! Ideally located downtown near the Dunkirk Pier, Hospital, restaurants, banks, and shopping!

Key facts

• Front sunroom
• Downtown location
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• FRONT SUNROOM
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• MODERN EAT-IN KITCHEN
• FENCED BACKYARD
• DETACHED GARAGE
• DOWNTOWN LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $144 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#426 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Dunkirk City School District (town): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dunkirk Intermediate School (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,945 of 2,108 statewide, top 94%, 588 students, 73% FRL); Dunkirk Senior High School (math 87%, 882 students, 67% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 32% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Dunkirk City School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($794 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1902 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $101,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1902 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.38%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $115,836
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 E Fifth St	0.06mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,046 (-14%)	3mo	$170,000	$83	67
417 Robin St	0.40mi	4/1.5 (-1)	2,132 (-10%)	3mo	$128,000	$60	55
48 W 5th St	0.25mi	4/1.5 (-1)	2,117 (-10%)	16mo	$25,000	$12	51
47 Ruggles St	0.34mi	4/1.0 (-1)	2,149 (-9%)	15mo	$6,000	$3	48
731 Washington Ave	0.41mi	4/1.5 (-1)	2,122 (-10%)	19mo	$105,000	$49	41
170 King St	0.59mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,524 (+7%)	18mo	$50,000	$20	41
23 N Beagle St	0.65mi	6/1.5 (+1)	2,063 (-13%)	9mo	$150,000	$73	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $35,241
• Equity at exit: $64,630

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.07×
• Total profit: $98,887
• Equity at exit: $111,145

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14048

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,208 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,913/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,025

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $209	-5% $177	+0% $144	+5% $112	+10% $79
Rent	-10% $49	-5% $96	+0% $144	+5% $192	+10% $240
Rate	-1.0pp $202	-0.5pp $173	base $144	+0.5pp $114	+1.0pp $84

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   price $114,900
3. 2025-12-04
   listed $124,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,913 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,928 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$14/yr (+$1/mo · 0.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,492
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$1,913
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,159
• − Management: −$1,159
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable loss: −$93
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$22
• After-tax cash flow: $1,753/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dunkirk City School District
• NCES district ID: 3609420
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,345
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7190
• State rank: #575 of 590 in NY

Livability — Dunkirk

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #426
• US rank: #7421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dunkirk, NY
• City population: 14,949
• Population (ZIP): 14,949

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 25% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 20% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.93%
• Current HPI: 325.9188
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $114,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-12-04 Listed $124,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,913 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.