4495 Neenah Trl · Redding, CA 96003

$35,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 39 Days on market

Built 1976 Fair condition $49/sqft · 18% above area Est $30k · 18% over $650/mo HOA · 49% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Mountain Shadows Mobile Home Estates, one of Redding's most established and well-maintained all-ages communities and this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home is your affordable ticket in. At 720 square feet, this 12x60 layout is thoughtfully sized for comfortable everyday living, with laminate flooring that runs throughout the main living areas, adding warmth and easy maintenance underfoot. The kitchen features white cabinetry, a gas range/oven, and a window that brings in natural light functional and ready for your personal touch. Both bedrooms offer decent square footage for the home's size, with windows that let the outside in. The full bath is well laid out. This home si

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Swimming pool
• Gas heating

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• WOOD SIDING
• METAL ROOF
• GAS HEATING
• EVAPORATIVE COOLING
• SWIMMING POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Land lease: No
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $650; Association is mandatory; Community amenities: pool, clubhouse, game room, sauna, BBQ area, picnic area, guest parking; pet restrictions apply; Association fee includes grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces; Attached parking (no garage)
• Utilities: Gas plumbed; 220V in laundry; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Single-wide; Built in 1976
• Construction: Metal roof; Metal skirting
• Exterior features: Corner lot with irregular shape; Storage shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Range hood; Breakfast area; Laminate countertops
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Linoleum; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower over
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating (natural gas); Evaporative cooler
• Interior features: Porch; Storage area / shed
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry hookups available; Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $153 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 3.3% in Redding — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in CA, #3,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Gateway Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #355 of 517 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 391 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 49% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $33,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.69%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $29,556
• List price: $35,000
• Delta: 18.42%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4438 Menasha Trl #58	0.04mi	2/1.0	804 (+12%)	9mo	$30,000	$37	71
4509 Big Eagle Ln Ln Unit Mountain Shadow Mobile Estates	0.25mi	2/1.0	718 (-0%)	22mo	$51,000	$71	70
481 Twin View Blvd #35	0.67mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	5mo	$11,000	$15	64
481 Twin View Blvd #94	0.67mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	8mo	$30,000	$42	63
1125 Big Bear Ln Ln	0.21mi	2/1.0	784 (+9%)	22mo	$29,000	$37	57
481 Twin View Blvd #40	0.67mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	17mo	$40,000	$56	54
895 Shawnee Trl Unit Mountain Shadows	0.11mi	2/1.0	624 (-13%)	23mo	$42,000	$67	54
821 St Marks St #19	0.34mi	2/1.0	672 (-7%)	24mo	$25,000	$37	53
481 Twin View Blvd #82	0.67mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	23mo	$42,000	$58	50
481 Twin View Blvd #97	0.67mi	2/1.0	624 (-13%)	4mo	$33,000	$53	44
1072 Eagle Nest Rd	0.54mi	2/2.0	792 (+10%)	15mo	$110,000	$139	42
471 Bitterroot Dr Sp# 42 Dr Unit Redwoods	0.47mi	2/2.0	792 (+10%)	20mo	$65,000	$82	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $8,551
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.03×
• Total profit: $39,478
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96003

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 391
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,322 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$650
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,129

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3717 Saint Nicholas Ave Unit 5 Redding, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,150	$1.77	44d	1	0.62mi
272 Boulder Creek Dr Unit 08 Redding, CA	1.0	1.0	437	$929	$2.13	44d	1	0.97mi
284 Boulder Creek Dr Unit F Redding, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$1,099	$2.20	44d	1	0.97mi
251 Hilltop Dr Redding, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	757	$1,475	$1.95	13d	1	1.02mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $650 · $7,800/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $35,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $35,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $35,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $35,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $35,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $35,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $35,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2015-09-04
    listed $11,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,866
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,269
• − Management: −$1,269
• − HOA: −$7,800
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $1,849
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$444
• After-tax cash flow: $1,388/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, with potential for significant value increase through updates to interior walls, backsplash, and landscaping.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen backsplash — No backsplash visible
• Minor Bathroom backsplash — No backsplash visible
• Minor Exterior siding — Some vegetation around
• Minor Landscaping — Vegetation around the property

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace kitchen backsplash — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both Replace bathroom backsplash — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen backsplash · No backsplash visible	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom backsplash · No backsplash visible	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior siding · Some vegetation around	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Vegetation around the property	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$2,000–12,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace kitchen backsplash — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace bathroom backsplash — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gateway Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,888
• Composite: 25.39/100
• National rank: #7465
• State rank: #355 of 517 in CA

Livability — Redding

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #3726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Redding, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• City population: 112,523
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,923
• Household income: $72,445
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1668.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.66%
• Current HPI: 152.3069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.98%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2015-09-04 Listed $11,000 SAOR