5080 Boulder Dr · Hermantown, MN 55811

$70,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily · 49 Days on market

Built 2003 Average condition 2,800 sqft lot $58/sqft · 22% below area Est $90k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable Hermantown living in this Holly Park, 2003, 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 16x76 manufactured home located in Bel Air Manor. It features an open layout, kitchen /living room perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The large primary bedroom has a large walk-in closet, plus it's own ensuite bathroom, complete with soaking tub and separate shower. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath make up this home.

Key facts

• 2,800 sq ft lot
• Built 2003
• Listed 49 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.3% vs local median 2.1% in Hermantown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#446 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Hermantown Public School District (rural): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #73 of 301 in MN (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 639 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $67,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 71.61%
• DSCR: 4.19
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $89,661
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -21.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5082 Boulder Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	8mo	$94,000	$77	84
5070 Boulder Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	9mo	$92,000	$76	80
5059 Boulder Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	18mo	$80,000	$66	69
5047 Boulder Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	22mo	$108,000	$89	63
5052 Boulder Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+10%)	9mo	$145,000	$108	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 73.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.40×
• Total profit: $66,607
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 77.4%
• Equity multiple: 9.60×
• Total profit: $168,565
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55811

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,093 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $1,170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4877 W Arrowhead Rd Unit 124 Hermantown, MN	2.0	1.0	1190	$1,750	$1.47	13d	1	1.43mi
4877 W Arrowhead Rd Hermantown, MN	2.0	1.0	1190	$1,695	$1.42	43d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $70,000 Pending 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $70,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $70,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $70,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $70,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $70,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-04-17
   listed $70,000 Active 410-char remark

   Show marketing remark (410 chars)

   Affordable Hermantown living in this Holly Park, 2003, 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 16x76 manufactured home located in Bel Air Manor. It features an open layout, kitchen /living room perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The large primary bedroom has a large walk-in closet, plus it's own ensuite bathroom, complete with soaking tub and separate shower. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath make up this home.

8. 2021-03-26
   soldstatus $50,000 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   Affordable Hermantown living in this Holly Park, 2003, 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 16x76 manufactured home located in Bel Air Manor. Newly leveled and steel skirted, total face lift inside starting with a new storm door, front closet, all new flooring, paint, washer, dryer, gas range, counter top, sink. Furnishings negotiable. This is move-in ready!

9. 2021-02-08
   listed $50,000 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   Affordable Hermantown living in this Holly Park, 2003, 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 16x76 manufactured home located in Bel Air Manor. Newly leveled and steel skirted, total face lift inside starting with a new storm door, front closet, all new flooring, paint, washer, dryer, gas range, counter top, sink. Furnishings negotiable. This is move-in ready!

10. 2021-01-21
    soldstatus $27,000
11. 2020-09-14
    listed $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,115
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,009
• − Management: −$2,009
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $13,739
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,297
• After-tax cash flow: $10,738/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in average condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor exterior siding — moderate wear
• Minor interior paint — some discoloration

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior and exterior — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and enhances property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · moderate wear	Minor	$500–3,000
interior paint · some discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior and exterior — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hermantown Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2713920
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $67,133
• Composite: 46.47/100
• National rank: #2438
• State rank: #73 of 301 in MN

Livability — Hermantown

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #446
• US rank: #10529

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hermantown, MN
• County: Saint Louis County · 115,152 people
• City population: 28,218
• Metro: Duluth, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 28,118
• Household income: $79,804
• Rent vs Own: 31.0% rent · 69.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1019.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,411 people
• By 2030: 203,234 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 202,520 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 200,853 · -0.8%
• By 2075: 200,943 · -0.7%
• By 2100: 192,058 · -5.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: D (+13.7) · D 55.9% · R 42.2% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.7 2020: D+15.6 2016: D+11.8 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -252.84%
• Current HPI: 198.2613
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Duluth, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+133.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $70,000 LSAR
• 2021-03-26 Sold (MLS) $50,000 LSAR
• 2021-02-08 Listed $50,000 LSAR
• 2021-01-21 Sold (MLS) $27,000 LSAR
• 2020-09-14 Listed $30,000 LSAR