4800 4th Way SW · Olympia, WA 98502

$575,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,666 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2015 5,148 sqft lot Est $651k · 12% under $52/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Cash flow +3.6/30.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 4-bedroom home in sought-after Woodbury Crossing! Walking into the home, you're greeted with an open entrance, tall ceilings and lots of natural light. The entire main level offers an open-concept design, maximizing living space and creating a seamless flow. The oversized island and functional kitchen layout create a warm, inviting space that is perfect for hosting, gathering, or simply enjoying everyday living. All bedrooms are thoughtfully located upstairs, along with a versatile loft space and conveniently place oversized laundry room. The spacious primary suite features a private ensuite bathroom and walk-in closet. Situated on a premium lot backing to a retention pond, enjoy

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Tall ceilings
• Versatile loft space

Tags

• TALL CEILINGS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• OVERSIZED ISLAND
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN LAYOUT
• VERSATILE LOFT SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $575k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (52.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (53.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $269k (53.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#58 in WA, #1,036 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living D-.
• Olympia School District (urban): math 66% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #17 of 291 in WA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 304 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $61k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $58k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$99k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $435k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $269,442 (53.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.47% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.81%
• DSCR: 0.43
• GRM: 17.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $650,504
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4806 3rd (Lot 17) Ave NW	0.21mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,745 (+3%)	0mo	$699,443	$255	80
449 Woodduck Dr SW	0.03mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,545 (-4%)	10mo	$576,250	$226	78
317 Nine Bark St NW	0.46mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,768 (+4%)	3mo	$558,000	$202	64
610 Meadowwood Dr SW	0.16mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,311 (-13%)	3mo	$565,000	$244	63
4717 Greenwood Dr SW	0.23mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,624 (-2%)	23mo	$574,900	$219	62
213 Serene View (Lot 4) Pl NW	0.18mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,330 (-13%)	4mo	$599,950	$257	62
617 Birchwood Dr SW	0.17mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,311 (-13%)	4mo	$569,900	$247	62
514 Woodduck Dr SW	0.07mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,501 (-6%)	24mo	$585,000	$234	62
4921 Greenwood Dr SW	0.21mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,455 (-8%)	14mo	$560,000	$228	60
4905 Greenwood Dr SW	0.22mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,382 (-11%)	12mo	$575,000	$241	57
448 Woodduck Dr SW	0.05mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,354 (-12%)	20mo	$575,000	$244	56
602 Birchwood Dr SW	0.14mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,363 (-11%)	22mo	$579,900	$245	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $204,102
• Equity at exit: $518,006

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.27×
• Total profit: $687,936
• Equity at exit: $1,117,099

Cash invested: $161,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98502

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 304
• Price-to-rent: 17.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,694 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,015
• Tax from tax record: −$540 /mo · $6,482/yr
• Insurance: −$240
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$566
• Net cashflow: $-1,719

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,870

Max offer price $271,411

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $143,750
• Closing costs: $17,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4407 Goldcrest Dr NW Olympia, WA	4.0	2.5	2615	$2,950	$1.13	43d	1	0.95mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   listed $575,000 Active
3. 2024-10-21
   historical $2,950
4. 2024-10-04
   listed $2,950
5. 2023-05-18
   historical
6. 2020-07-02
   historical
7. 2020-07-02
   soldstatus $434,900 Sold
8. 2020-06-05
   status Pending
9. 2020-06-01
   status Pending Inspection
10. 2020-05-29
    listed $434,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,482 · $540/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,482 · $540/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,333
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,209
• − Property taxes: −$6,482
• − Insurance: −$2,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,587
• − Management: −$2,587
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$16,727
• Taxable loss: −$31,758
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,622
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,001/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Olympia School District
• NCES district ID: 5306180
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $63,852
• Composite: 62.27/100
• National rank: #1438
• State rank: #17 of 291 in WA

Livability — Olympia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #1036

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Olympia, WA
• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 98,428
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 35,398
• Household income: $92,207
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1811.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 6% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.49%
• Current HPI: 1056.49
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.16%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+32.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Listed $575,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-21 Rental Removed $2,950 BUILDIUM
• 2024-10-04 Listed for Rent $2,950 BUILDIUM
• 2023-05-18 Rental Removed — BUILDIUM
• 2020-07-02 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-02 Sold (MLS) $434,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-05 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-01 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-29 Listed $434,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+23.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $6,482 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.