20906 Sumac Grv · San Antonio, TX 78264

$193,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 139 Days on market

Built 2025 4,791 sqft lot $121/sqft · at area comps Est $198k · at est. $27/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-191 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (14.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (23.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Southside ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #771 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Freedom El (math 15% / reading 26%, grade F, #3,515 of 4,322 statewide, top 82%, 562 students, 93% FRL); Julius L Matthey Middle (math 17% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 604 students, 92% FRL); Southside H S (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 1,685 students, 85% FRL).
• Market conditions: 359 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $148,979 (23.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.21%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $197,999
• List price: $193,999
• Delta: -2.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20918 Sumac Grv	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,600 (0%)	1mo	$197,999	$124	98
20930 Sumac Grv	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,600 (0%)	1mo	$197,999	$124	96
20922 Sumac Grv	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,575 (-2%)	2mo	$200,999	$128	94
21002 Sumac Grv	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,600 (0%)	3mo	$200,999	$126	94
21034 Sumac Grv	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,600 (0%)	4mo	$195,999	$122	93
20827 Pinon Grv	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,575 (-2%)	5mo	$201,999	$128	90
20723 Maple Grv	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,575 (-2%)	3mo	$213,999	$136	85
20902 Sumac Grv	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-12%)	2mo	$195,999	$140	72
3605 Mccrae Xing	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,445 (-10%)	3mo	$185,000	$128	72
20823 Pinon Grv	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-12%)	6mo	$200,999	$143	67
3635 Strawberry	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,441 (-10%)	6mo	$244,000	$169	66
20830 Pinon Grv	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-12%)	5mo	$208,999	$149	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.94% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $21,138
• Equity at exit: $97,738

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $80,632
• Equity at exit: $159,365

Cash invested: $54,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78264

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 359
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,490 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$242 /mo · $2,910/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$27
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $-191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,731

Max offer price $166,397

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-57	-5% $-124	+0% $-191	+5% $-258	+10% $-325
Rent	-10% $-308	-5% $-250	+0% $-191	+5% $-132	+10% $-73
Rate	-1.0pp $-93	-0.5pp $-141	base $-191	+0.5pp $-241	+1.0pp $-292

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,500
• Closing costs: $5,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20823 Pinon Grv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$1,650	$1.18	45d	1	0.06mi
20414 Deets Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1858	$1,750	$0.94	5d	1	0.48mi
20335 Campbellton Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,450	$1.04	45d	1	0.68mi
3230 South Loop 1604 E Unit A08 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$995	$0.82	4d	1	0.72mi
3230 South Loop 1604 E Unit A08 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$995	$0.82	25d	1	0.72mi
20448 Red Coral San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1129	$1,500	$1.33	25d	1	0.89mi
20642 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,450	$1.22	23d	1	0.90mi
20447 Red Coral San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,320	$1.07	25d	1	0.92mi
20622 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,400	$0.91	0d	1	0.93mi
20618 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1179	$1,450	$1.23	6d	1	0.94mi
3008 Carnelian Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,195	$1.01	4d	1	0.98mi
2906 Carnelian Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,550	$1.14	45d	1	0.98mi
20305 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1207	$1,400	$1.16	18d	1	1.05mi
20305 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1207	$1,350	$1.12	45d	1	1.05mi
20305 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1207	$1,400	$1.16	0d	1	1.05mi
20511 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,450	$1.22	19d	1	1.05mi
2807 Ruby Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,400	$1.10	25d	1	1.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $27 · $324/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $193,999 Pending 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $193,999 Price Change 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $193,999 Price Change 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $193,999 Price Change 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $193,999 Price Change 133 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $193,999 Price Change 132 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   pricestatusdays on market $193,999 Price Change 131 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $192,999 Active 130 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $192,999 Price Change 129 DOM
10. 2026-05-15
    price $199,999 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (609 chars)

    The Pinehollow - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

11. 2026-05-15
    price $199,999 609-char remark

    Show marketing remark (609 chars)

    The Pinehollow - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

12. 2026-04-30
    price $202,999 609-char remark

    Show marketing remark (609 chars)

    The Pinehollow - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

13. 2026-04-29
    price $202,999 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

14. 2026-04-28
    listed $227,999 Active 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

15. 2026-01-22
    listed $227,999 New 609-char remark

    Show marketing remark (609 chars)

    The Pinehollow - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,877
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,867
• − Property taxes: −$2,910
• − Insurance: −$970
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,430
• − Management: −$1,430
• − HOA: −$324
• − Depreciation: −$5,644
• Taxable loss: −$5,697
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,367
• After-tax cash flow: $-922/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southside ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,526
• Composite: 17.68/100
• National rank: #9027
• State rank: #771 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,806,925
• Population (ZIP): 11,702

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 80% Two or more races 35% White 17% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 73%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Greek 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 51% Tagalog/Filipino 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.94%
• Current HPI: 298.8446
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $199,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $199,999 LERA
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $202,999 LERA
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $202,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-28 Listed $227,999 Zillow
• 2026-01-22 Listed $227,999 LERA