23090 N Bald Mountain Rd · Phoenix Lake, CA 95370

$369,000

12 bd · 9.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · MultiFamily · 129 Days on market

6.45 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Great opportunity for rental investment, multi-family cabin retreat, or full time living! This 3 unit property sits on 6.45 acres of wooded land offering privacy in a unique mountain atmosphere. The units include a 2-bed 1-bath, with two additional 1-bed 1-bath units. A strong well producing 15 gallons per minute serves all three homes. There is ample space on the 6.45 acres for more development and outdoor enjoyment. A bonus is the driveway path to a lookout point with views that span far into the distance. This is a one-of-a-kind property. See it today!

Key facts

• Strong well
• Views
• Lookout point

Tags

• MULTI-FAMILY CABIN RETREAT
• WOODED LAND
• STRONG WELL
• LOOKOUT POINT
• VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Large lot of about 6.45 acres
• Financial info: Multiple-unit income property (3 units)

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot with 6 parking spaces
• Utilities: Has heating; Wall/window unit(s) for cooling
• Home design: Residential income property with three houses on one lot; Approximately 2,000 total building area; Secluded setting with front yard
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Year built not specified
• Exterior features: Garden/play area; Private entrances; Shed(s)

Interior

• Flooring: Linoleum; Partial carpeting; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: Three 1-bath units (one bathroom in each unit)
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove heating; Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: Storage; Private entrances for units; Garden/play area
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1×2bd/1ba + 2×1bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $369k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $787 ($9k/yr) — positive. Per door: $262/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $369k).
• Recommended offer: $325k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 2.6% in Phoenix Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,105 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Belleview Elementary (rural): math 20% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #1,087 of 1,400 in CA (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($325k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $324,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.14%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-9,613
• Equity at exit: $55,019

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $56,422
• Equity at exit: $31,904

Cash invested: $103,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95370

• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 20.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,224 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$461 /mo · $5,535/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$887
• Net cashflow: $787

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,228

Max offer price $369,000

Occupancy floor 76%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	2	1	$1,475
▸ 2× units	1	1	$2,750
Total (3 units)			$4,224

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,250
• Closing costs: $11,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $369,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $369,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $369,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $369,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $369,000 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $369,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $369,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $369,000 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $369,000 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $369,000 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $369,000 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $369,000 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $369,000 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $369,000 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $369,000 Active 111 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $369,000 Active 110 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $369,000 Active 109 DOM
18. 2026-02-10
    listed $389,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,688
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,670
• − Property taxes: −$5,535
• − Insurance: −$1,845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,055
• − Management: −$4,055
• − Depreciation: −$10,735
• Taxable income: $3,794
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$910
• After-tax cash flow: $8,532/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belleview Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0604500
• Math proficiency: 20% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $53,472
• Composite: 27.37/100
• National rank: #12405
• State rank: #1087 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Phoenix Lake

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1105
• US rank: #25551

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment C Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 28,373

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Russian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -322.67%
• Current HPI: 130.9637
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Listed $389,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR