1056 Old Trail Dr · Crozet, VA 22932

$395,000

2 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,504 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 2019 $263/sqft · 17% below area Est $473k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enter into this 2 bedroom 3 full / 1 half INTERIOR UNIT TOWNHOME with FIRST FLOOR HOME OFFICE, an ATTACHED REAR-FACING GARAGE, and FRONT BALCONY to experience MOUNTAIN VIEWS from any room in the house, indestructible LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORS, and an EAT-IN KITCHEN with GRANITE COUNTERTOPS, gorgeous STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES, and breakfast nook! Enjoy all the LUXURIES that the OLD TRAIL NEIGHBORHOOD has to offer: nearby restaurants, POOL, clubhouse, GOLF, WALK/RUN TRAILS, and more! Located just minutes from DOWNTOWN HISTORIC CROZET and 20 minutes from Charlottesville!

Key facts

• Old trail community
• Blue ridge mountains
• High-end appliances

Tags

• OLD TRAIL COMMUNITY
• BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
• BEAUTIFULLY DESIGNED KITCHEN
• HIGH-END APPLIANCES
• SCENIC VIEWS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family property built in 2019; Living area approximately 1504
• Construction: Built in 2019
• Exterior features: Located in the Old Trail subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $395k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-626 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (28.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (38.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (38.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.8% in Crozet — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#48 in VA, #1,158 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, cost of living F.
• Albemarle County Public School District (rural): math 66% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #14 of 131 in VA (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 204 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 810 units permitted in Albemarle County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Albemarle County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $332k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,363 (38.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.79%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $473,167
• List price: $395,000
• Delta: -16.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5737 Locust Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,548 (+3%)	17mo	$445,000	$287	38
1059 Killdeer Ln	0.64mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,724 (+15%)	5mo	$525,000	$305	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-103,946
• Equity at exit: $58,896

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-142,178
• Equity at exit: $34,152

Cash invested: $110,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22932

• Home prices YoY: -25.3%
• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 13.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,414 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax from tax record: −$297 /mo · $3,558/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $-626

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,206

Max offer price $284,459

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-402	-5% $-514	+0% $-626	+5% $-738	+10% $-849
Rent	-10% $-816	-5% $-721	+0% $-626	+5% $-530	+10% $-435
Rate	-1.0pp $-427	-0.5pp $-525	base $-626	+0.5pp $-728	+1.0pp $-832

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,750
• Closing costs: $11,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1045 Heathercroft Cir Ste 209 Crozet, VA	2.0	2.0	1076	$2,200	$2.04	45d	1	0.22mi
1045 Heathercroft Cir Ste 409 Crozet, VA	2.0	2.0	1078	$2,700	$2.50	45d	1	0.22mi
1045 Heathercroft Cir Ste 404 Crozet, VA	2.0	2.0	1075	$2,475	$2.30	45d	1	0.22mi
1045 Heathercroft Cir Apt 208 Crozet, VA	2.0	2.0	1079	$1,995	$1.85	45d	1	0.22mi
1045 Heathercroft Cir Ste 306 Crozet, VA	2.0	2.0	1080	$2,300	$2.13	45d	1	0.22mi
372 Joliet Ct Crozet, VA	3.0	2.5	1614	$2,250	$1.39	22d	1	1.09mi
5981 McComb St Crozet, VA	3.0	3.0	2098	$2,545	$1.21	45d	1	1.15mi
5709 St George Ave Crozet, VA	3.0	1.0	1130	$2,100	$1.86	14d	1	1.21mi
5990 Cling Ln Crozet, VA	3.0	3.5	1725	$2,700	$1.57	22d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $395,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $395,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $395,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $395,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $395,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $395,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $395,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $395,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $395,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $395,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $395,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $395,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $395,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $395,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $395,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $395,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $395,000 Active 18 DOM
18. 2026-05-12
    listed $395,000 Active 994-char remark
19. 2021-09-09
    soldstatus $332,500 575-char remark

    Show marketing remark (575 chars)

    Enter into this 2 bedroom 3 full / 1 half INTERIOR UNIT TOWNHOME with FIRST FLOOR HOME OFFICE, an ATTACHED REAR-FACING GARAGE, and FRONT BALCONY to experience MOUNTAIN VIEWS from any room in the house, indestructible LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORS, and an EAT-IN KITCHEN with GRANITE COUNTERTOPS, gorgeous STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES, and breakfast nook! Enjoy all the LUXURIES that the OLD TRAIL NEIGHBORHOOD has to offer: nearby restaurants, POOL, clubhouse, GOLF, WALK/RUN TRAILS, and more! Located just minutes from DOWNTOWN HISTORIC CROZET and 20 minutes from Charlottesville!

20. 2021-09-09
    soldstatus $332,500

    Show marketing remark (575 chars)

    Enter into this 2 bedroom 3 full / 1 half INTERIOR UNIT TOWNHOME with FIRST FLOOR HOME OFFICE, an ATTACHED REAR-FACING GARAGE, and FRONT BALCONY to experience MOUNTAIN VIEWS from any room in the house, indestructible LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORS, and an EAT-IN KITCHEN with GRANITE COUNTERTOPS, gorgeous STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES, and breakfast nook! Enjoy all the LUXURIES that the OLD TRAIL NEIGHBORHOOD has to offer: nearby restaurants, POOL, clubhouse, GOLF, WALK/RUN TRAILS, and more! Located just minutes from DOWNTOWN HISTORIC CROZET and 20 minutes from Charlottesville!

21. 2021-06-21
    listed $340,000 575-char remark

    Show marketing remark (575 chars)

    Enter into this 2 bedroom 3 full / 1 half INTERIOR UNIT TOWNHOME with FIRST FLOOR HOME OFFICE, an ATTACHED REAR-FACING GARAGE, and FRONT BALCONY to experience MOUNTAIN VIEWS from any room in the house, indestructible LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORS, and an EAT-IN KITCHEN with GRANITE COUNTERTOPS, gorgeous STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES, and breakfast nook! Enjoy all the LUXURIES that the OLD TRAIL NEIGHBORHOOD has to offer: nearby restaurants, POOL, clubhouse, GOLF, WALK/RUN TRAILS, and more! Located just minutes from DOWNTOWN HISTORIC CROZET and 20 minutes from Charlottesville!

22. 2021-01-01
    historical
23. 2020-08-11
    listed $339,875
24. 2019-12-13
    listed $329,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,558 · $297/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,558 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,964
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,126
• − Property taxes: −$3,558
• − Insurance: −$1,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,317
• − Management: −$2,317
• − Depreciation: −$11,491
• Taxable loss: −$14,821
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,557
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,952/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Albemarle County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100090
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $67,851
• Composite: 62.28/100
• National rank: #698
• State rank: #14 of 131 in VA

Livability — Crozet

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #1158

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crozet, VA
• County: Albemarle County · 129,350 people
• City population: 9,148
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 9,148
• Household income: $115,545
• Rent vs Own: 18.8% rent · 81.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 168.0

Population outlook (Albemarle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,403 people
• By 2030: 125,829 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 137,705 · +15.3%
• By 2050: 148,058 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 172,223 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 185,628 · +55.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Iranian 5% Slovak 5%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Albemarle

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.1) · D 66.3% · R 32.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.1pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 34.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.1 2020: D+33.5 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+12.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.03%
• Current HPI: 254.0549
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+19.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $395,000 FSBO.com
• 2021-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $332,500 Public Records
• 2021-09-09 Sold (MLS) $332,500 CAAR
• 2021-06-21 Listed $340,000 CAAR
• 2021-01-01 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2020-08-11 Listed $339,875 CAAR
• 2019-12-13 Listed $329,900 CAAR

Property tax history

+24.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,558 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.