578 Stephen Hands Path · Northwest Harbor, NY 11937

$2,350,000

4 bd · 5.0 ba · 3,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 93 Days on market

Built 1981 0.70 ac lot $783/sqft · at area comps Est $2373k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Private and Perfectly Located 4 BR Tucked behind a dramatic gated entry in one of East Hampton's most central and desirable locations, this impeccably renovated 3,000 +/- SF home offers 4 bedrooms and 5 baths, blending modern luxury with classic Hamptons charm. Redesigned in 2021 and upgraded with resort-style features, including a custom heated gunite pool, this is the ultimate summer retreat, ideally situated between East Hampton Village, Sag Harbor, and both ocean and bay beaches. At its core, a generous great room with high ceilings and abundant natural light opens to the outdoors through oversized sliders. The open layout connects a stylish dining area and chef's kitchen to multiple patios for sunbathing or al fresco dining. A covered lower patio provides shade, while the upper deck overlooks the pool and manicured grounds. The home's layout is ideal for privacy and flexibility, with three bedrooms on the main floor and a guest-ready lower level featuring its own living area, bedroom, 2 full baths, kitchenette, washer/dryer, and direct pool access. The newly built heated pool with electric automatic cover is the focal point of the lush backyard, complemented by an expansive lounging deck, outdoor shower, and serene landscaping. Additional features include a private gym with natural light and a smart sound system with indoor and outdoor zones. Offering both seclusion and convenience, this East Hampton gem is minutes from beaches, parks, and the vibrant villages of East Hampton and Sag Harbor-your key to a stylish, comfortable, and unforgettable Hamptons getaway.

Key facts

• Oversized sliders
• Great room
• Gated entry

Tags

• GATED ENTRY
• CUSTOM HEATED GUNITE POOL
• GREAT ROOM
• OVERSIZED SLIDERS
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• COVERED LOWER PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $2.35M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($54k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.31M (1.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.14M (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,007 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• East Hampton Union Free School District (town): math 62% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #159 of 590 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $23,098/mo this rent would consume 213% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $16k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $70k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $658k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($2.14M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $245k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $2,138,500 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.23%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,372,569
• List price: $2,350,000
• Delta: -0.95%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3 Cedar Trl	0.17mi	4/4.0	2,800 (-7%)	18mo	$2,465,000	$880	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $27,348
• Equity at exit: $350,393

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $944,460
• Equity at exit: $203,185

Cash invested: $658,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $23,098 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$12,324
• Tax from tax record: −$434 /mo · $5,206/yr
• Insurance: −$979
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,851
• Net cashflow: $4,510

Break-even live

Break-even rent $17,388

Max offer price $2,350,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $587,500
• Closing costs: $70,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
36 Barnes Ave East Hampton, NY	4.0	3.0	2346	$55,000	$23.44	24d	1	0.24mi
3 Mulford Ave East Hampton, NY	4.0	2.5	2700	$30,000	$11.11	43d	1	0.47mi
4 Marion Ln East Hampton, NY	4.0	3.0	3200	$90,000	$28.12	43d	1	0.53mi
643 Stephen Hands Path East Hampton, NY	4.0	3.5	3200	$65,000	$20.31	43d	1	0.57mi
10 Villa Ave East Hampton, NY	3.0	4.0	2200	$35,000	$15.91	24d	1	0.84mi
202 Treescape Dr Unit 10B East Hampton, NY	4.0	3.0	2200	$50,000	$22.73	24d	1	1.19mi
20 Cutter Ct East Hampton, NY	4.0	3.0	2100	$40,000	$19.05	43d	1	1.27mi
210 Treescape Dr East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	2400	$25,000	$10.42	43d	1	1.29mi
33 Oak Hill Ln East Hampton, NY	4.0	3.0	2350	$55,000	$23.40	24d	1	1.30mi
15 Rivers Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	4.0	2400	$45,000	$18.75	43d	1	1.34mi
48 Whooping Hollow Rd East Hampton, NY	5.0	4.5	3500	$90,000	$25.71	43d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,350,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,350,000 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,350,000 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,350,000 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,350,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,350,000 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,350,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,350,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $2,350,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $2,350,000 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,350,000 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,350,000 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,350,000 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,350,000 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    price $2,350,000 1592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1592 chars)

    Private and Perfectly Located 4 BR Tucked behind a dramatic gated entry in one of East Hampton's most central and desirable locations, this impeccably renovated 3,000 +/- SF home offers 4 bedrooms and 5 baths, blending modern luxury with classic Hamptons charm. Redesigned in 2021 and upgraded with resort-style features, including a custom heated gunite pool, this is the ultimate summer retreat, ideally situated between East Hampton Village, Sag Harbor, and both ocean and bay beaches. At its core, a generous great room with high ceilings and abundant natural light opens to the outdoors through oversized sliders. The open layout connects a stylish dining area and chef's kitchen to multiple patios for sunbathing or al fresco dining. A covered lower patio provides shade, while the upper deck overlooks the pool and manicured grounds. The home's layout is ideal for privacy and flexibility, with three bedrooms on the main floor and a guest-ready lower level featuring its own living area, bedroom, 2 full baths, kitchenette, washer/dryer, and direct pool access. The newly built heated pool with electric automatic cover is the focal point of the lush backyard, complemented by an expansive lounging deck, outdoor shower, and serene landscaping. Additional features include a private gym with natural light and a smart sound system with indoor and outdoor zones. Offering both seclusion and convenience, this East Hampton gem is minutes from beaches, parks, and the vibrant villages of East Hampton and Sag Harbor-your key to a stylish, comfortable, and unforgettable Hamptons getaway.

16. 2026-03-17
    listed $2,595,000 Active 1592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1592 chars)

    Private and Perfectly Located 4 BR Tucked behind a dramatic gated entry in one of East Hampton's most central and desirable locations, this impeccably renovated 3,000 +/- SF home offers 4 bedrooms and 5 baths, blending modern luxury with classic Hamptons charm. Redesigned in 2021 and upgraded with resort-style features, including a custom heated gunite pool, this is the ultimate summer retreat, ideally situated between East Hampton Village, Sag Harbor, and both ocean and bay beaches. At its core, a generous great room with high ceilings and abundant natural light opens to the outdoors through oversized sliders. The open layout connects a stylish dining area and chef's kitchen to multiple patios for sunbathing or al fresco dining. A covered lower patio provides shade, while the upper deck overlooks the pool and manicured grounds. The home's layout is ideal for privacy and flexibility, with three bedrooms on the main floor and a guest-ready lower level featuring its own living area, bedroom, 2 full baths, kitchenette, washer/dryer, and direct pool access. The newly built heated pool with electric automatic cover is the focal point of the lush backyard, complemented by an expansive lounging deck, outdoor shower, and serene landscaping. Additional features include a private gym with natural light and a smart sound system with indoor and outdoor zones. Offering both seclusion and convenience, this East Hampton gem is minutes from beaches, parks, and the vibrant villages of East Hampton and Sag Harbor-your key to a stylish, comfortable, and unforgettable Hamptons getaway.

17. 2023-10-25
    historical $45,000
18. 2023-10-22
    listed $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,206 · $434/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $22,461 · $1,872/mo
• Expected delta: +$17,254/yr (+$1,438/mo · 331.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $277,172
• − Mortgage interest: −$131,637
• − Property taxes: −$5,206
• − Insurance: −$11,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$22,174
• − Management: −$22,174
• − Depreciation: −$68,364
• Taxable income: $15,868
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,808
• After-tax cash flow: $50,317/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Hampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609660
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $86,309
• Composite: 57.85/100
• National rank: #1046
• State rank: #159 of 590 in NY

Livability — Northwest Harbor

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1007
• US rank: #19577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northwest Harbor, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 21,806
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 896.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+5122.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $2,350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Listed $2,595,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-25 Rental Removed $45,000 LISTANZA
• 2023-10-22 Listed for Rent $45,000 LISTANZA

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $5,206 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.