4018 S Q St · Fort Smith, AR 72903

$144,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,588 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1978 0.37 ac lot Est $200k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Single-family home in a quiet and desirable area. 5 mins from the mall, Walmart neighbourhood market, and southside high school. The house is currently used as an investment property. The monthly rent is $1200.

Key facts

• 0.37 acre lot
• Built 1978

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $144,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$200,088) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $275 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.3% in Fort Smith — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#151 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Fort Smith School District (urban): math 35% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #106 of 238 in AR (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: William O. Darby Jr. High Sch. (math 20% / reading 30%, grade F, #164 of 201 statewide, top 82%, 700 students, 87% FRL); Northside High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #239 of 292 statewide, top 85%, 2,433 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 64% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 37% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Smith School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 388 units permitted in Sebastian County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sebastian County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.14%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $200,088
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4001 S P St	0.13mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,428 (-10%)	0mo	$180,000	$126	72
3909 S Q St	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,420 (-11%)	10mo	$199,000	$140	63
3004 Pendell Ln	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,531 (-4%)	1mo	$218,000	$142	58
4625 Q St	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,578 (-1%)	19mo	$197,000	$125	57
4618 S Q St	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,556 (-2%)	19mo	$225,000	$145	55
1708 S 46th St	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,446 (-9%)	13mo	$173,000	$120	52
2921 S P St	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-5%)	10mo	$165,000	$109	44
4611 S T Cir	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,812 (+14%)	17mo	$215,000	$119	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,838
• Equity at exit: $21,605

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $33,353
• Equity at exit: $12,528

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72903

• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,588 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,911/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,240

Max offer price $144,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5200 S U St Unit 141 Fort Smith, AR	3.0	2.0	1190	$850	$0.71	21d	1	0.73mi
3700 Dallas St Fort Smith, AR	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,795	$1.16	21d	1	0.91mi
3101 Park Ave Fort Smith, AR	3.0	2.0	1634	$1,650	$1.01	13d	1	1.14mi
2307 S 23rd St Fort Smith, AR	3.0	2.5	1356	$1,595	$1.18	21d	1	1.17mi
400 Lincoln Ln Fort Smith, AR	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1425	$1,499	$1.05	13d	16	1.38mi
406 Rockefeller Pl Fort Smith, AR	4.0	4.0	1800	$1,699	$0.94	21d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2022-08-18
   soldstatus $127,500
2. 2022-07-29
   historical
3. 2022-04-19
   listed $144,900
4. 2013-06-05
   soldstatus $106,000
5. 2005-12-14
   soldstatus $90,000
6. 2002-05-21
   soldstatus $78,000
7. 1992-03-25
   soldstatus $58,000
8. 1983-10-03
   soldstatus $46,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,911 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,911 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,061
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$1,911
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,525
• − Management: −$1,525
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable income: $1,044
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$251
• After-tax cash flow: $3,054/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Smith School District
• NCES district ID: 0506330
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $36,066
• Composite: 30.66/100
• National rank: #6183
• State rank: #106 of 238 in AR

Livability — Fort Smith

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #151
• US rank: #13185

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Smith, AR
• County: Sebastian County · 99,312 people
• City population: 94,356
• Metro: Fort Smith, AR-OK
• Population (ZIP): 27,242
• Household income: $61,434
• Rent vs Own: 47.2% rent · 52.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1009.0

Population outlook (Sebastian County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 133,992 people
• By 2030: 136,620 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 140,832 · +5.1%
• By 2050: 143,301 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 147,964 · +10.4%
• By 2100: 145,848 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Black 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Vietnamese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sebastian

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.5) · D 30.0% · R 67.6% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -34.6pp · 2024: -37.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.5 2020: R+35.5 2016: R+38.1 2012: R+37.1 2008: R+34.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -183.19%
• Current HPI: 201.125
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.90%
• Metro: Fort Smith, AR-OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+177.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2022-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $127,500 Public Records
• 2022-07-29 Delisted — WRVBOR
• 2022-04-19 Listed $144,900 WRVBOR
• 2013-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $106,000 Public Records
• 2005-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2002-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 1992-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 1983-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,911 · +39.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.