2105 Oakridge Dr · Ava, MO 65608

$240,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,128 sqft · Other public records · 284 Days on market

Built 1989 0.37 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Larger all brick family home located in excellent subdivision - 4 bedrooms 2-1/2 bath, sunroom with wet bar, large back deck and mature landscaping. Attractive built-in cabinetry, two-car garage is finished on the inside with ample storage - also has a detached carport. Large rooms, central heat and air - close to schools and shopping.

Key facts

• Heated sunroom
• Newer roof
• Updated bathrooms

Tags

• SHADED FENCED BACK YARD
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER WINDOWS
• HEATED SUNROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-243 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (17.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (37.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (37.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.6% in Ava — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#12 in MO, #1,299 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F, employment F.
• Ava R-I (town): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #177 of 324 in MO (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ava Elem. (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #413 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 544 students, 64% FRL); Ava Middle (math 36% / reading 38%, grade F, #220 of 391 statewide, top 59%, 390 students, 62% FRL); Ava High (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #179 of 521 statewide, top 39%, 451 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 139 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (9.1% local appreciation)).
• Douglas County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 284 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,649 (37.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 284 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.34%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $99,678
• Equity at exit: $199,782

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.50×
• Total profit: $302,265
• Equity at exit: $414,475

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65608

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 139
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,506 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $894/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $-243

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,814

Max offer price $197,082

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-24
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-02-25
   status Active
4. 2026-02-12
   status Pending
5. 2025-12-17
   status Active
6. 2025-12-17
   price $240,000
7. 2025-08-05
   price $250,000
8. 2025-06-16
   listed $259,000 Active
9. 2016-04-18
   soldstatus
10. 2014-12-05
    soldstatus 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    Larger all brick family home located in excellent subdivision - 4 bedrooms 2-1/2 bath, sunroom with wet bar, large back deck and mature landscaping. Attractive built-in cabinetry, two-car garage is finished on the inside with ample storage - also has a detached carport. Large rooms, central heat and air - close to schools and shopping.

11. 2014-12-05
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    Larger all brick family home located in excellent subdivision - 4 bedrooms 2-1/2 bath, sunroom with wet bar, large back deck and mature landscaping. Attractive built-in cabinetry, two-car garage is finished on the inside with ample storage - also has a detached carport. Large rooms, central heat and air - close to schools and shopping.

12. 2014-06-02
    listed $109,000 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    Larger all brick family home located in excellent subdivision - 4 bedrooms 2-1/2 bath, sunroom with wet bar, large back deck and mature landscaping. Attractive built-in cabinetry, two-car garage is finished on the inside with ample storage - also has a detached carport. Large rooms, central heat and air - close to schools and shopping.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $894 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,328 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,434/yr (+$120/mo · 160.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,078
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$894
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,446
• − Management: −$1,446
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$7,334
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,760
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,155/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ava R-I
• NCES district ID: 2904050
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $31,148
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5766
• State rank: #177 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ava

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #1299

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ava, MO
• Population (ZIP): 8,478

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,395 people
• By 2030: 11,690 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 10,185 · -17.8%
• By 2050: 8,805 · -29.0%
• By 2075: 6,716 · -45.8%
• By 2100: 5,493 · -55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Native American 1% Hispanic / Latino 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.0) · D 13.7% · R 85.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.2pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -72.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.0 2020: R+69.8 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+44.8 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.05%
• Current HPI: 249.1557
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+120.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-03-24 Contingent — SOMO
• 2026-02-25 Relisted — SOMO
• 2026-02-12 Pending — SOMO
• 2025-12-17 Relisted — SOMO
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $240,000 SOMO
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $250,000 SOMO
• 2025-06-16 Listed $259,000 SOMO
• 2016-04-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-12-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-12-05 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2014-06-02 Listed $109,000 SOMO

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $894 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.