390 Roesch Ave · Buffalo, NY 14207

$169,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1952 5,280 sqft lot Est $211k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute 3 bedroom cape with a fenced in yard and hardwood floors throughout. Just needs your finishing touches to make it your own. Come take a look!

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Roof replacement
• Expansive backyard

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• EXPANSIVE BACKYARD
• DETACHED GARAGE
• TWO SEPARATE ENTRANCES
• ROOF REPLACEMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Approximately 1.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story property; Existing structure
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Poured foundation
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Rectangular residential lot, 44 x 120

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Solid surface counters; Partially finished full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (5.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,609/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($40k/yr) (locally 2177% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $41k; list at $170k implies a 314% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $160,881 (5.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.76%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $211,120
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
361 Roesch Ave	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,116 (+7%)	8mo	$218,500	$196	78
108 Argus St	0.39mi	3/1.0	993 (-4%)	6mo	$40,000	$40	69
242 Hoover Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,035 (-0%)	6mo	$227,500	$220	67
221 Newfield St	0.21mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,127 (+8%)	4mo	$75,000	$67	66
419 Washington Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,014 (-2%)	6mo	$220,000	$217	62
55 Irene St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,080 (+4%)	7mo	$205,000	$190	59
82 Beatrice Ave	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,166 (+12%)	2mo	$165,000	$142	56
446 Victoria Blvd	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,144 (+10%)	2mo	$265,000	$232	55
5 Ruhl Ave	0.75mi	3/1.0	964 (-7%)	0mo	$234,100	$243	53
370 Washington Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,132 (+9%)	3mo	$230,000	$203	50
145 Hoover Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,143 (+10%)	2mo	$155,000	$136	43
384 Mang Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,155 (+11%)	7mo	$267,000	$231	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,046
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $58,559
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14207

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,609 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $495/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,270

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
62 Seabrook St Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	1d	1	0.04mi
2075 Kenmore Ave Unit 611 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	981	$1,950	$1.99	1d	1	0.25mi
15 Beatrice Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	950	$1,150	$1.21	14d	1	0.48mi
134 Philadelphia St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	871	$1,100	$1.26	3d	1	0.48mi
158 Chadduck Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	23d	1	0.61mi
480 W Hazeltine Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	989	$1,900	$1.92	23d	1	0.62mi
239 Crowley Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	966	$1,025	$1.06	3d	1	0.76mi
237 W Girard Blvd Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1329	$4,000	$3.01	23d	1	1.03mi
118 Rano St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,200	$1.14	21d	1	1.07mi
68 Laforce Pl Unit U Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,099	$1.22	43d	1	1.15mi
356 Hertel Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.5	800	$2,300	$2.88	2d	1	1.23mi
15 Ontario St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	1d	1	1.31mi
52 Somerton Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	23d	1	1.36mi
36-46 Crowell Ct Unit 40 Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	23d	1	1.38mi
3113 Delaware Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1083	$1,200	$1.11	23d	1	1.44mi
49 Tulane Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	17d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $169,900 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $169,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-02
   listed $169,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $495 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,683 · $140/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,188/yr (+$99/mo · 239.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,306
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$495
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,544
• − Management: −$1,544
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $412
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$99
• After-tax cash flow: $3,116/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 26,327
• Household income: $39,753
• Rent vs Own: 65.0% rent · 35.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2177.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 16% Asian 15% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 18% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Portuguese 1% Arab 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Philippines, Canada, India
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.42%
• Current HPI: 233.0902
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+239.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $169,900 WNYREIS
• 2014-12-05 Sold (MLS) $41,000 WNYREIS
• 2014-10-14 Listed $44,500 WNYREIS
• 2007-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $495 · +10.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.