10961 Desert Lawn Dr (210 Vineyard) #210 · Calimesa, CA 92320

$169,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1991 Est $163k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +5.7/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 2-Bedroom, 2-Bath Cottage in a Vibrant 55+ Community Step into this delightful 1,344 sq ft cottage-style home featuring 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, perfectly designed for comfortable, low-maintenance retirement living. This warm and inviting residence boasts a beautiful brick fireplace as its centerpiece — ideal for cozy evenings and efficient winter heating. All appliances are included, so you can move in and start enjoying your new home right away, this property has a new roof and updated, like new water heater. . Outside, a lovely backyard offers a peaceful retreat for gardening, relaxing with morning coffee, or entertaining friends. Nestled in a friendly 55+ retirement c

Key facts

• Brick fireplace
• Lovely backyard
• Easy freeway access

Tags

• BRICK FIREPLACE
• LOVELY BACKYARD
• LOCAL SHOPS
• EASY FREEWAY ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park name: Plantation on the Lake
• Financial info: Land lease of $972 per month (current)
• HOA & community: Senior community; Association amenities include pool, spa, clubhouse, gym/exercise room, billiard room, card room, pickleball, dog park, fire pit; pets permitted with rules and breed restrictions; Manager approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 total parking spaces; Located in Plantation on the Lake park
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/Public water
• Home design: Double-wide mobile home (12' x 56') remains on site; Single story
• Construction: Year built per public records
• Exterior features: No pool; Lot in 0–1 unit/acre range

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: One-level home; Single entry level
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer included; Dryer included; Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Individual laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $823 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $166k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 6.7% in Calimesa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#865 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment B; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Beaumont Unified (suburban): math 32% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #168 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,465 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.86%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,624
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10961 Desert Lawn Dr #19	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	8mo	$130,000	$97	93
10961 Desert Lawn Dr #3	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	8mo	$142,000	$106	93
10961 Desert Lawn Dr #181	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	11mo	$100,000	$74	90
10961 Desert Lawn Dr #116	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	12mo	$82,500	$61	90
10961 Desert Lawn Dr #44	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	14mo	$149,000	$111	88
10961 Desert Lawn Dr #162	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	1mo	$120,000	$83	87
10961 Desert Lawn Dr #59	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	16mo	$196,500	$146	86
10961 Desert Lawn Dr #329	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,380 (+3%)	14mo	$275,000	$199	84
10961 Desert Lawn Dr #202	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	13mo	$175,000	$122	77
10961 Desert Lawn Dr #96	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,280 (-5%)	14mo	$185,000	$145	67
10961 Desert Lawn Dr #479	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,508 (+12%)	15mo	$240,000	$159	67
10961 Desert Lawn Dr #135	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,532 (+14%)	16mo	$185,000	$121	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $24,937
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $88,892
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92320

• Home prices YoY: -22.2%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,302 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $470/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $823

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,261

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-27
    listed $169,000 Active
16. 2015-03-28
    historical
17. 2014-05-16
    price $85,000
18. 2014-05-16
    price $79,000
19. 2014-04-27
    price $80,000
20. 2014-04-15
    price $85,000
21. 2014-03-27
    listed $90,000 Active
22. 2010-07-08
    historical
23. 2010-04-08
    price $74,900
24. 2009-11-19
    historical
25. 2009-11-19
    price $84,900
26. 2009-10-21
    listed $84,900 Active
27. 2009-10-16
    listed $89,950 Active
28. 2009-02-27
    historical
29. 2008-11-05
    listed $129,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $470 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,284 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$814/yr (+$68/mo · 173.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,623
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$470
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,210
• − Management: −$2,210
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $7,505
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,801
• After-tax cash flow: $8,070/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beaumont Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604290
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $60,635
• Composite: 40.37/100
• National rank: #3736
• State rank: #168 of 517 in CA

Livability — Calimesa

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #865
• US rank: #23579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calimesa, CA
• City population: 10,680
• Population (ZIP): 10,680

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 12% Asian 3% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.13%
• Current HPI: 364.3627
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+30.1% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $169,000 CRMLS
• 2015-03-28 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2014-05-16 Price Changed $79,000 CRMLS
• 2014-05-16 Price Changed $85,000 CRMLS
• 2014-04-27 Price Changed $80,000 CRMLS
• 2014-04-15 Price Changed $85,000 CRMLS
• 2014-03-27 Listed $90,000 CRMLS
• 2010-07-08 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2010-04-08 Price Changed $74,900 CRMLS
• 2009-11-19 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2009-11-19 Price Changed $84,900 CRMLS
• 2009-10-21 Listed $84,900 CRMLS
• 2009-10-16 Listed $89,950 CRMLS
• 2009-02-27 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2008-11-05 Listed $129,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

-5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $470 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.