404 Northland Ave · Buffalo, NY 14208

$199,900

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,360 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1900 5,060 sqft lot Est $184k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Perfect investment property located in historical Hamlin Park district, close to the 33 expressway, Canisius College, Downtown Buffalo, Canalside and Medical Corridor. This 2 unit home has a spacious layout with 3 bedroom in each unit, separate living and dining rooms, full basement, attic and large backyard. all it needs is buyer's cosmetic updates. Perfect for investors and/ or owner occupants.

Key facts

• Two spacious units
• Full basement
• Private yard

Tags

• TWO SPACIOUS UNITS
• SEPARATE ENTRANCES
• FULL BASEMENT
• PRIVATE YARD
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,496/mo this rent would consume 87% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 723% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $200k implies a 148% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $196,901 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.59%
• DSCR: 2.32
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $184,080
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26 Pleasant Pl	0.29mi	6/2.0	2,346 (-1%)	3mo	$162,000	$69	83
304 Northland Ave	0.20mi	6/2.0	2,288 (-3%)	4mo	$121,000	$53	82
192 Goulding Ave	0.26mi	6/2.0	2,476 (+5%)	2mo	$220,000	$89	78
622 Woodlawn Ave	0.40mi	6/2.0	2,288 (-3%)	3mo	$177,500	$78	74
73 Monticello Pl	0.50mi	6/2.0	2,424 (+3%)	3mo	$160,000	$66	69
497-499 Riley St	0.72mi	6/2.0	2,380 (+1%)	2mo	$105,900	$44	63
2002 Fillmore Ave	0.67mi	6/2.0	2,390 (+1%)	4mo	$206,500	$86	63
169 Florida St	0.41mi	6/2.0	2,138 (-9%)	3mo	$258,000	$121	63
56 Eastwood Pl	0.57mi	6/2.0	2,487 (+5%)	4mo	$250,000	$101	62
2006 Fillmore Ave	0.67mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,390 (+1%)	3mo	$84,800	$35	59
84 Monticello Pl	0.53mi	6/2.0	2,591 (+10%)	0mo	$145,000	$56	59
159 Purdy St	0.69mi	6/2.0	2,080 (-12%)	6mo	$212,500	$102	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $55,577
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.89×
• Total profit: $161,817
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14208

• Home prices YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,496 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$734
• Net cashflow: $1,380

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 56%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1	$3,496
Total (2 units)			$3,496

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15 Hughes Ave Buffalo, NY	7.0	2.0	1650	$3,000	$1.82	43d	1	0.57mi
518 Wilson St Buffalo, NY	5.0	1.5	1848	$1,500	$0.81	23d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   listed $199,900 Active
3. 2020-09-22
   soldstatus $80,500
4. 2020-09-18
   soldstatus $80,500 Closed Sale or Rented 399-char remark

   Show marketing remark (399 chars)

   Perfect investment property located in historical Hamlin Park district, close to the 33 expressway, Canisius College, Downtown Buffalo, Canalside and Medical Corridor. This 2 unit home has a spacious layout with 3 bedroom in each unit, separate living and dining rooms, full basement, attic and large backyard. all it needs is buyer's cosmetic updates. Perfect for investors and/ or owner occupants.

5. 2020-05-24
   status Pending Sale 399-char remark

   Show marketing remark (399 chars)

   Perfect investment property located in historical Hamlin Park district, close to the 33 expressway, Canisius College, Downtown Buffalo, Canalside and Medical Corridor. This 2 unit home has a spacious layout with 3 bedroom in each unit, separate living and dining rooms, full basement, attic and large backyard. all it needs is buyer's cosmetic updates. Perfect for investors and/ or owner occupants.

6. 2020-05-11
   listed $89,900 Active 399-char remark

   Show marketing remark (399 chars)

   Perfect investment property located in historical Hamlin Park district, close to the 33 expressway, Canisius College, Downtown Buffalo, Canalside and Medical Corridor. This 2 unit home has a spacious layout with 3 bedroom in each unit, separate living and dining rooms, full basement, attic and large backyard. all it needs is buyer's cosmetic updates. Perfect for investors and/ or owner occupants.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 7% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,952
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,356
• − Management: −$3,356
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $14,229
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,415
• After-tax cash flow: $13,150/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 12,572
• Household income: $48,476
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 723.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 72% White 15% Asian 6% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Hispanic 0%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Philippines
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.37%
• Current HPI: 459.2084
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+122.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $199,900 WNYREIS
• 2020-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $80,500 Public Records
• 2020-09-18 Sold (MLS) $80,500 WNYREIS
• 2020-05-24 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2020-05-11 Listed $89,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $319 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.