Barlow Plan · Kendleton, TX 77417

$300,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,279 sqft · SingleFamily · 446 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan on the first level combining the kitchen, dining area and family room for effortless entertaining and multitasking. A versatile game room is located upstairs near four bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Luxe owner's suite
• Walk-in closet
• Game room

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• GAME ROOM
• LUXE OWNER'S SUITE
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $300,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $301,869.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $301k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $256 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,021 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, crime D.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $85k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 446 days — a 12% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $264,871 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 446 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.64%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $301,869
• List price: $300,990
• Delta: -0.29%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10722 Sky Creek Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,141 (-6%)	1mo	$319,000	$149	79
722 Mockingbird Psge	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,200 (-4%)	2mo	$357,590	$163	75
730 Mockingbird Passage Dr	0.24mi	4/3.5	2,563 (+12%)	2mo	$376,365	$147	63
10915 Tawny Ridge Dr	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,066 (-9%)	4mo	$293,990	$142	56
706 Blue Sky Pl	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,141 (-6%)	3mo	$319,990	$149	52
731 Blue Stone Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,386 (+5%)	2mo	$376,990	$158	52
1102 Arbor Dr	0.65mi	4/3.5	2,457 (+8%)	3mo	$334,990	$136	50
1106 Arbor Dr	0.66mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,542 (+12%)	2mo	$329,990	$130	41
703 Blue Stone Dr	0.74mi	4/3.5	2,548 (+12%)	4mo	$385,990	$151	38
715 Blue Stone Dr	0.74mi	4/3.5	2,548 (+12%)	5mo	$389,990	$153	38
727 Blue Stone Dr	0.74mi	4/3.5	2,548 (+12%)	5mo	$383,990	$151	38
10611 Summers Way	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,970 (-14%)	5mo	$322,990	$164	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $71,555
• Equity at exit: $155,764

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $209,847
• Equity at exit: $256,952

Cash invested: $84,523 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77417

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,965 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,583
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$377 /mo · $4,528/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$623
• Net cashflow: $256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,641

Max offer price $301,869

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,467
• Closing costs: $9,056
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10730 Sky Creek Ln Beasley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1869	$2,965	$1.59	1d	1	0.06mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,990 Active 446 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,990 Active 445 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,990 Active 444 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,990 Active 443 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,990 Active 441 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $300,990 Active 437 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,990 Active 436 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $300,990 Active 435 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $300,990 Active 432 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $300,990 Active 431 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $300,990 Active 430 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $300,990 Active 429 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,990 Active 428 DOM
14. 2025-03-30
    listed $300,990 Active 329-char remark

    Show marketing remark (329 chars)

    This new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan on the first level combining the kitchen, dining area and family room for effortless entertaining and multitasking. A versatile game room is located upstairs near four bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,580
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,909
• − Property taxes: −$4,528
• − Insurance: −$1,509
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,846
• − Management: −$2,846
• − Depreciation: −$8,782
• Taxable loss: −$1,841
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$442
• After-tax cash flow: $3,516/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor aesthetic updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and adds value
• Both Install smart locks — Enhances security and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and adds value ↑
• Both Install smart locks — Enhances security and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kendleton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1021
• US rank: #18149

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,232

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 337.8236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-03-30 Listed $300,990 Zillow