159 Croft Rd · Collierville, TN 38611

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1983 0.40 ac lot Est $209k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 bed, 2 bath home with a 2-car carport. Property needs work and is being sold "as is".

Key facts

• 0.4 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1983

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Covered carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water and well access; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family house; One level
• Construction: Siding construction; Slab foundation; Built (year source: Assessor)
• Exterior features: Asphalt shingle roof

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No central cooling
• Interior features: Private yard

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $546 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 2.4% in Collierville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#14 in TN, #4,207 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Marshall County School District (rural): math 18% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #87 of 130 in MS (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 310 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marshall County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,200 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.49%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $208,750
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
147 Croft Rd	0.03mi	3/1.0	1,305 (+4%)	23mo	$217,900	$167	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $15,265
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $57,857
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38611

• Home prices YoY: -11.8%
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,595 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $417/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $546

Break-even live

Break-even rent $904

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $120,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-28
    listed $125,000 Active
15. 2026-04-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $417 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $852 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: +$435/yr (+$36/mo · 104.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,135
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$417
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,531
• − Management: −$1,531
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $4,844
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,163
• After-tax cash flow: $5,386/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marshall County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802850
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,333
• Composite: 18.11/100
• National rank: #8970
• State rank: #87 of 130 in MS

Livability — Collierville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #4207

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 56,826
• Population (ZIP): 16,751

Population outlook (Marshall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,542 people
• By 2030: 31,983 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 28,556 · -14.9%
• By 2050: 25,352 · -24.4%
• By 2075: 20,032 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 16,738 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Marshall

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.3) · D 46.0% · R 53.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.5pp toward R · 2008: 18.2pp · 2024: -7.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.3 2020: D+3.1 2016: D+9.7 2012: D+19.4 2008: D+18.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -28.38%
• Current HPI: 212.021
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $125,000 MLSU
• 2026-04-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2021): $417 · +16.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.