1416 Welch Dr · Florence, SC 29505

$198,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,411 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1964 0.55 ac lot Est $206k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 bedroom 1.5 bath home in a convenient South Florence area with recent updates. Updates include a new HVAC unit, remodeled kitchen and hall bath. Flooring and lighting in bathrooms, hall, living room and kitchen are new. Carpets in remaining rooms only around 2 years old. This home features a spacious den off the kitchen for indoor entertainment. The house has an attached one car garage and a sunroom! The backyard is huge, fully fenced in, has a deck and a shed. Septic tank was pumped out about 2 years ago. These opportunities are difficult to come by now for under $200k. Take advantage of this while you still can!

Key facts

• New lighting
• Remodeled kitchen
• New flooring

Tags

• NEW HVAC UNIT
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• REMODELED HALL BATH
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW LIGHTING
• SPACIOUS DEN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Approximately 1,600 above-grade finished area
• Construction: Brick veneer and vinyl siding exterior; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Storage; Deck; Fenced yard; Workshop

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Carpet and vinyl flooring; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($499/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (11.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.5% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#196 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Florence 01 (urban): math 29% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #34 of 80 in SC (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Greenwood Elementary (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #394 of 597 statewide, top 66%, 542 students, 100% FRL); Southside Middle (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #146 of 229 statewide, top 64%, 1,100 students, 100% FRL); South Florence High (math 58% / reading 86%, grade B+, #48 of 196 statewide, top 26%, 1,643 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 57% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 185 active listings in the ZIP; 657 units permitted in Florence County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $198k implies a 102% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,037 (11.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.90%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $206,006
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2600 Hardin St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,406 (-0%)	15mo	$205,000	$146	62
1509 E Mcelveen Ter	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-6%)	14mo	$179,210	$136	59
1172 Hannah Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,528 (+8%)	19mo	$233,000	$152	55
1205 S Riverdale Ave	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,242 (-12%)	4mo	$182,000	$147	50
1147 Hallie Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,622 (+15%)	9mo	$249,000	$154	49
1106 Beauvoir Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,282 (-9%)	15mo	$163,000	$127	49
1145 Hannah Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,601 (+14%)	8mo	$228,000	$142	46
2229 Pine Forest Dr	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,264 (-10%)	20mo	$157,500	$125	43
1014 Annelle Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,550 (+10%)	10mo	$210,000	$135	42
1006 Hannah Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,332 (-6%)	23mo	$213,000	$160	41
2500 Broad Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-15%)	18mo	$200,000	$167	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-22,157
• Equity at exit: $29,522

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $16,535
• Equity at exit: $17,119

Cash invested: $55,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29505

• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax from tax record: −$220 /mo · $2,645/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,698

Max offer price $198,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $154	-5% $98	+0% $42	+5% $-14	+10% $-71
Rent	-10% $-97	-5% $-28	+0% $42	+5% $111	+10% $180
Rate	-1.0pp $141	-0.5pp $92	base $42	+0.5pp $-10	+1.0pp $-62

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,500
• Closing costs: $5,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $198,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $198,000 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $198,000 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $198,000 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $198,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $198,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $198,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $198,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $198,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $198,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $198,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $198,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $198,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $198,000 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $198,000 Active 35 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $198,000 Active 34 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $198,000 Active 33 DOM
18. 2026-05-19
    price $198,000
19. 2026-04-27
    listed $199,900 Active
20. 2025-06-04
    historical $1,400
21. 2025-05-22
    price $165,000
22. 2025-05-06
    listed $1,400
23. 2025-03-31
    price $175,000
24. 2025-03-14
    price $185,000
25. 2025-02-19
    listed $189,900 Active
26. 2024-09-04
    listed $199,900 Active
27. 2016-03-22
    soldstatus $98,000
28. 2016-03-18
    soldstatus
29. 2015-06-02
    listed $99,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,645 · $220/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,645 · $220/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,004
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,091
• − Property taxes: −$2,645
• − Insurance: −$990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$5,760
• Taxable loss: −$2,842
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$682
• After-tax cash flow: $1,181/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence 01
• NCES district ID: 4502130
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,782
• Composite: 32.36/100
• National rank: #5737
• State rank: #34 of 80 in SC

Livability — Florence

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #17076

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Florence County · 93,345 people
• City population: 93,345
• Metro: Florence, SC
• Population (ZIP): 23,895
• Household income: $67,343
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 559.0

Population outlook (Florence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 141,714 people
• By 2030: 142,121 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 141,344 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 139,478 · -1.6%
• By 2075: 132,275 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 118,374 · -16.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 38% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Florence

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.0) · D 45.3% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.8pp toward R · 2008: -3.2pp · 2024: -8.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.0 2020: R+2.3 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+0.5 2008: R+3.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.13%
• Current HPI: 177.9352
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.97%
• Metro: Florence, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

+98.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $198,000 RAGPD
• 2026-04-27 Listed $199,900 RAGPD
• 2025-06-04 Rental Removed $1,400 RAGPD
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $165,000 RAGPD
• 2025-05-06 Listed for Rent $1,400 RAGPD
• 2025-03-31 Price Changed $175,000 RAGPD
• 2025-03-14 Price Changed $185,000 RAGPD
• 2025-02-19 Listed $189,900 RAGPD
• 2024-09-04 Listed $199,900 RAGPD
• 2016-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $98,000 Public Records
• 2016-03-18 Sold (MLS) — RAGPD
• 2015-06-02 Listed $99,900 RAGPD

Property tax history

+29.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,645 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.