17965 SE 51st St · Silver Springs Shores East, FL 32179

$79,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,077 sqft · Manufactured public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1970 0.90 ac lot $74/sqft · 10% below area Est $89k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Canal Front to Lake Bryant. Huge . 90 acre fenced yard with 2 car detached Garage, GreenHouse, Multiple sheds, boathouse & more.

Key facts

• Canal front
• Boathouse
• Lake bryant

Tags

• CANAL FRONT
• LAKE BRYANT
• FENCED YARD
• DETACHED GARAGE
• GREENHOUSE
• BOATHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $605 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 5.2% in Silver Springs Shores East — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 426 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,709 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.45%
• DSCR: 2.44
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $89,030
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -10.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5215 SE 184 TH Ter	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (-9%)	3mo	$70,000	$71	53
5686 SE 184th Ter	0.65mi	2/2.0	944 (-12%)	14mo	$165,000	$175	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $25,617
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.22×
• Total profit: $72,065
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32179

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,493 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,463/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $605

Break-even live

Break-even rent $727

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17200 SE 56th St Ocklawaha, FL	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,500	$1.18	21d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,900 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $79,900 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,900 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,900 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-04-21
    price $99,900 134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    Canal Front to Lake Bryant. Huge . 90 acre fenced yard with 2 car detached Garage, GreenHouse, Multiple sheds, boathouse & more.

17. 2026-03-17
    listed $109,900 Active 134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    Canal Front to Lake Bryant. Huge . 90 acre fenced yard with 2 car detached Garage, GreenHouse, Multiple sheds, boathouse & more.

18. 2000-04-20
    soldstatus $82,114

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,463 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,463 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,912
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,463
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,433
• − Management: −$1,433
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $6,383
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,532
• After-tax cash flow: $5,727/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Silver Springs Shores East

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,318
• Household income: $46,512
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 303.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.21%
• Current HPI: 242.0408
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+21.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Listed $109,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $82,114 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,463 · +37.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.