1313 Waters Edge Dr · Toms River, NJ 08753

$349,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,003 sqft · Townhouse · 43 Days on market

Built 1986 Good condition 435 sqft lot $348/sqft · at area comps Est $365k · at est. $345/mo HOA · 12% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

GREAT LOCATION! 10 minutes to the beach! Short distance to community pool, courts & playground! Ground floor living so goodbye to stairs! Perimeter unit offering privacy on your patio! Freshly painted & move-in ready! Featuring wood-look tile flooring throughout, this condo showcases a renovated kitchen complete with newer cabinetry, granite countertops, and plenty of space for cooking & entertaining. The primary suite boasts an oversized closet and a private en-suite bath, creating the perfect retreat. Both bathrooms have been updated with newer flooring, vanities, showers, & toilets for a fresh, modern feel. HVAC less than 2 years old!

Key facts

• Oversized closet
• Community amenities
• Renovated kitchen

Tags

• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED CLOSET
• PRIVATE EN-SUITE BATH
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $349k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-536 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (22.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $271k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hooper Avenue Elementary School (math 21% / reading 48%, grade F, #582 of 1,303 statewide, top 49%, 676 students, 17% FRL); Toms River Intermediate School East (math 17% / reading 49%, grade F, #271 of 431 statewide, top 64%, 1,294 students, 24% FRL); Toms River High School East (math 23% / reading 45%, grade F, #243 of 399 statewide, top 63%, 1,520 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 21% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 719 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 103d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 86% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $271,411 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.58%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $364,538
• List price: $349,000
• Delta: -4.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1313 Waters Edge Dr #1313	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,003 (0%)	1mo	$340,000	$339	99
2517 Waters Edge Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,003 (0%)	6mo	$329,000	$328	89
2415 Waters Edge Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,003 (0%)	11mo	$365,000	$364	85
1615 Waters Edge Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,025 (+2%)	24mo	$333,500	$325	71
2113 Waters Edge Dr	0.15mi	1/1.0 (-1)	913 (-9%)	16mo	$335,000	$367	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-94,657
• Equity at exit: $52,037

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.45×
• Total profit: $-142,116
• Equity at exit: $30,175

Cash invested: $97,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.0 mo (25%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $335,000 ($316/sqft)
• Median days on market: 28 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +15.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08753

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 719
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,811 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$436 /mo · $5,235/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$345
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$590
• Net cashflow: $-536

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,490

Max offer price $271,411

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-295	-5% $-416	+0% $-536	+5% $-657	+10% $-777
Rent	-10% $-758	-5% $-647	+0% $-536	+5% $-425	+10% $-314
Rate	-1.0pp $-360	-0.5pp $-447	base $-536	+0.5pp $-627	+1.0pp $-719

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,250
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1415 Waters Edge Dr #1415 Toms River, NJ	3.0	3.0	1465	$3,000	$2.05	103d	1	0.06mi
113 Waters Edge Dr Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1252	$2,500	$2.00	120d	1	0.30mi
73 S Shore Dr Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	960	$2,975	$3.10	139d	1	0.34mi
1813 Capstan Dr Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	760	$2,800	$3.68	139d	1	0.51mi
308 Cutty Ct Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.5	1396	$2,600	$1.86	88d	1	0.64mi
98 Oak Tree Ln Unit NA Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1100	$3,200	$2.91	51d	1	0.81mi
987 Grace Dr Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1092	$2,700	$2.47	21d	1	1.41mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $345Association amenities: swimming poolHOA covers trash, common area maintenance, lawn maintenance, pool, and snow removalAssociation name: Association Advisors

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: CondominiumAttached property
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGas cookingStove hoodRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fansBlinds / shadesLight fixtures
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

HOA detail $345/mo · $4,140/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-30
   days on market $349,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-29
   days on market $349,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-28
   days on market $349,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-27
   days on market $349,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-26
   days on market $349,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-24
   days on market $349,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-22
   days on market $349,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-21
   days on market $349,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-17
    days on market $349,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-16
    days on market $349,000 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-15
    days on market $349,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-13
    days on market $349,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-13
    remarks 683-char remark
15. 2026-06-13
    listed $349,000 Active 25 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 9% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,732
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$5,235
• − Insurance: −$1,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,699
• − Management: −$2,699
• − HOA: −$4,140
• − Depreciation: −$10,153
• Taxable loss: −$12,488
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,997
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,437/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,015–$15,045 screening

This townhouse is in good condition with recent renovations and updates, making it move-in ready. It offers a great location and community amenities, with potential for further value through landscaping and exterior painting.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and marketability. ↑
• Both Landscaping and pool maintenance — Maintaining the pool area and landscaping can attract more potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hooper Avenue Elementary School F NJ #582/1,303 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Toms River Intermediate School East F NJ #271/431 Nat'l #8,059/14,009 High Toms River High School East F NJ #243/399 Nat'l #10,121/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

A Composite livability gradescore 81/100

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 586,991 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 65,448
• Household income: $105,224
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -527.36%
• Current HPI: 374.5075
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.49%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $345Association amenities: swimming poolHOA covers trash, common area maintenance, lawn maintenance, pool, and snow removalAssociation name: Association Advisors

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: CondominiumAttached property
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGas cookingStove hoodRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fansBlinds / shadesLight fixtures
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

Price history

-2.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $349,000 MOMLS
• 2026-05-18 Listed $358,000 MOMLS