206 Lake Mariana Pl · Auburndale, FL 33823

$255,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,944 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 2020 8,438 sqft lot $105/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this bright and beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home designed for comfort, functionality, and easy living. From the moment you step inside, you’re greeted by soaring high ceilings and an open-concept layout that creates an airy, inviting atmosphere filled with natural light. The heart of the home features a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living areas—perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The modern kitchen is thoughtfully designed with a convenient island, ample counter space, and clear sightlines that keep you connected to family and guests. Durable laminate flooring throughout the main living spaces adds both style and low-m

Key facts

• Convenient island
• High ceilings
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• HIGH CEILINGS
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MODERN KITCHEN
• CONVENIENT ISLAND
• DURABLE LAMINATE FLOORING
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Corner of Dairy Rd & Mariana Way (directions)
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Lake Mariana Reserve / hoa); Quarterly association fee ($317); Monthly HOA equivalent about $105.67; Association fees required; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces north; Residential property
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area approximately 1,944 living area (public records)
• Exterior features: Asphalt road surface; Lot approximately 0.19 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6 ($-67/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#48 in FL, #905 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute C-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Walter Caldwell Elementary School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 895 students, 58% FRL); Jere L. Stambaugh Middle (math 23% / reading 26%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 1,127 students, 65% FRL); Auburndale Senior High School (math 25% / reading 31%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,716 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 483 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,596 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.09%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-41,258
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-34,662
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33823

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 483
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,196 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,303/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$105
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $-6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,203

Max offer price $254,016

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $139	-5% $67	+0% $-6	+5% $-78	+10% $-150
Rent	-10% $-179	-5% $-92	+0% $-6	+5% $81	+10% $168
Rate	-1.0pp $123	-0.5pp $59	base $-6	+0.5pp $-72	+1.0pp $-139

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2068 Babbling Brook Blvd Auburndale, FL	4.0	3.0	2106	$2,600	$1.23	25d	1	0.34mi
149 Jana Cir Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,650	$1.22	25d	1	0.39mi
4824 Osprey Way Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1621	$1,950	$1.20	25d	1	0.89mi
1305 Carr Dr Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1505	$1,800	$1.20	25d	1	0.92mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $105 · $1,260/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $255,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $255,000 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $255,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $255,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $255,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $255,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-05-10
   price $255,000
10. 2026-04-08
    price $260,000
11. 2026-03-27
    price $270,000
12. 2026-03-17
    listed $285,000 Active
13. 2026-03-03
    historical
14. 2026-02-24
    price $285,000
15. 2026-02-16
    listed $305,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,303 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,303 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,352
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$2,303
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,108
• − Management: −$2,108
• − HOA: −$1,260
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$4,404
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,057
• After-tax cash flow: $990/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Auburndale

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #905

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 41,779
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,779
• Household income: $71,485
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 821.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 13% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Philippines
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.70%
• Current HPI: 316.9436
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.18%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-16.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $255,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $260,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $270,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Listed $285,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $285,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Listed $305,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+26.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,303 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.