17506 W Van Buren St #279 · Goodyear, AZ 85338

$119,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 704 sqft · Manufactured · 305 Days on market

Built 2005 Est $133k · 10% under ↓ 3% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

GOLF COURSE HOME! Welcome home to this 2005 Cavco single wide. Situated on a corner golf course lot in Cotton Lane RV 55+ Park, this 704 sf, 1 bedroom/1 bath home is in excellent condition. Features: white appliances, breakfast area, washer/dryer, neutral color palette, ceiling fans, security doors and solar/privacy screens.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 2005

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area source: Owner
• HOA & community: Land lease (monthly); Land lease payment: $511 monthly; Association covers sewer, water, trash, street maintenance and grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Cement siding with wood frame; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Heated spa; East/West exposure; Corner lot; On golf course; Gravel/stone front and back; Private maintained road; Pool; Community spa; Fitness center; Pickleball courts; Golf access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Reverse osmosis water system; Electric range/oven
• Bedrooms: 1 possible bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump (electric); Central air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Furnished (see remarks); No interior steps; Vaulted ceilings; 3/4 bath in primary bedroom; Laminate counters; Solar screens; Dual-pane windows with vinyl frames
• Laundry & utility: Community laundry (coin-operated)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $239 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.0% in Goodyear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#15 in AZ, #3,737 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Agua Fria Union High School District (4289) (suburban): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #99 of 249 in AZ (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1102 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 305 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 305 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.55%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $133,056
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17506 W Van Buren St #368	0.13mi	1/1.0	625 (-11%)	0mo	$110,000	$176	75
17506 W Van Buren St #525	0.00mi	1/1.0	625 (-11%)	10mo	$120,000	$192	73
17506 W Van Buren St #364	0.15mi	1/1.0	625 (-11%)	2mo	$117,000	$187	72
17506 W Van Buren St #358	0.00mi	1/1.0	625 (-11%)	12mo	$118,000	$189	71
17506 W Van Buren St #370	0.13mi	1/1.0	625 (-11%)	8mo	$124,000	$198	68
17506 W Van Buren St #381	0.00mi	2/1.0 (+1)	640 (-9%)	21mo	$88,000	$138	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-8,141
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-2,703
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85338

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1102
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,352 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,798/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,049

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $322	-5% $281	+0% $239	+5% $198	+10% $156
Rent	-10% $132	-5% $186	+0% $239	+5% $292	+10% $346
Rate	-1.0pp $299	-0.5pp $270	base $239	+0.5pp $208	+1.0pp $176

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
195 N 173rd Ave Goodyear, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	822	$1,313	$1.60	0d	12	0.55mi
25 N 173rd Ave Goodyear, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	818	$1,295	$1.58	0d	25	0.69mi
16985 W Van Buren St Goodyear, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$1,208	$1.27	0d	57	0.81mi
575 S Cotton Ln Goodyear, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1047	$1,327	$1.27	0d	33	1.04mi
1050 S 173rd Ave Goodyear, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,325	$1.32	0d	14	1.06mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $119,900 Active 305 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $119,900 Active 303 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $119,900 Active 302 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $119,900 Active 301 DOM
5. 2026-04-04
   status Active
6. 2026-04-01
   historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
7. 2026-04-01
   listed $119,900 Active
8. 2026-03-31
   soldstatus Closed
9. 2026-03-24
   historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
10. 2026-01-16
    price $119,900
11. 2026-01-10
    status Active
12. 2026-01-10
    historical
13. 2025-11-10
    status Active
14. 2025-11-10
    historical
15. 2025-08-02
    listed $124,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,218
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,798
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,297
• − Management: −$1,297
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $1,021
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$245
• After-tax cash flow: $2,624/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Agua Fria Union High School District (4289)
• NCES district ID: 0400450
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $64,107
• Composite: 27.92/100
• National rank: #6865
• State rank: #99 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Goodyear

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #3737

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living D Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goodyear, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 107,865
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 67,451
• Household income: $101,744
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1300.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 19% Black 6% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.22%
• Current HPI: 252.0828
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.66%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $119,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Sold (MLS) — ARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $119,900 ARMLS
• 2026-01-10 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-01-10 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-11-10 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-11-10 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-08-02 Listed $124,000 ARMLS