706 S Lincoln St · Bay City, MI 48708

$125,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,558 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1910 5,663 sqft lot $80/sqft · 11% below area Est $141k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Liberating on South Lincoln! This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom traditional style home has 1,558 square feet of living space that is already setup for multi-family use or provides the awesome benefits of a single-family home with 2 kitchens, a blank canvass of a basement to make your own and a large, partially fenced in yard. This spacious home is 1 mile South of Center Avenue with a seller excited to part ways with it!

Key facts

• Multi-family use
• 2 kitchens
• 5,663 sq ft lot

Tags

• MULTI-FAMILY USE
• 2 KITCHENS
• BLANK CANVASS BASEMENT
• PARTIALLY FENCED YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions approximately 50' x 110' (0.13 acres)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two-story
• Construction: Metal siding; Block foundation; Built above grade with finished living area (1,558 square feet)
• Exterior features: Fenced yard

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central cooling
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Block basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $272 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 5.6% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $107k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.34%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $141,148
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -11.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
309 Harold St	0.34mi	4/1.0	1,452 (-7%)	2mo	$111,500	$77	67
407 S Jackson St	0.36mi	4/1.0	1,650 (+6%)	4mo	$45,000	$27	66
414 S Jackson St	0.37mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,500 (-4%)	2mo	$109,900	$73	66
905 S Monroe St	0.37mi	4/1.0	1,687 (+8%)	0mo	$146,500	$87	65
318 Fraser St	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-3%)	0mo	$155,000	$103	59
212 N McLellan St	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,746 (+12%)	1mo	$125,000	$72	56
421 Harold St	0.28mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,762 (+13%)	2mo	$120,000	$68	55
808 19th St	0.48mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,439 (-8%)	2mo	$95,700	$67	54
1615 S Jackson St	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,511 (-3%)	4mo	$179,900	$119	53
1713 9th St	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,633 (+5%)	5mo	$130,000	$80	50
1611 S Grant St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,426 (-8%)	2mo	$112,500	$79	47
509 11th St	0.65mi	4/1.5	1,324 (-15%)	5mo	$54,100	$41	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-2,885
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $19,919
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48708

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,441 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,904/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,097

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $343	-5% $308	+0% $272	+5% $237	+10% $202
Rent	-10% $159	-5% $215	+0% $272	+5% $329	+10% $386
Rate	-1.0pp $335	-0.5pp $304	base $272	+0.5pp $240	+1.0pp $207

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 27 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 26 DOM
18. 2026-05-04
    listed $140,000 Active 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    Liberating on South Lincoln! This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom traditional style home has 1,558 square feet of living space that is already setup for multi-family use or provides the awesome benefits of a single-family home with 2 kitchens, a blank canvass of a basement to make your own and a large, partially fenced in yard. This spacious home is 1 mile South of Center Avenue with a seller excited to part ways with it!

19. 2026-05-04
    listed $140,000 Active 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    Liberating on South Lincoln! This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom traditional style home has 1,558 square feet of living space that is already setup for multi-family use or provides the awesome benefits of a single-family home with 2 kitchens, a blank canvass of a basement to make your own and a large, partially fenced in yard. This spacious home is 1 mile South of Center Avenue with a seller excited to part ways with it!

20. 2025-07-30
    soldstatus $107,000
21. 2025-07-29
    soldstatus $107,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Spacious and versatile 3 bed, 2 bath home in Bay City’s South End! Thoughtfully designed with flexible living in mind, this well-maintained home features two full kitchens, two living rooms, and a layout perfect for extended family or a private guest suite. The upper level offers 2 bedrooms, a full bath, kitchen, and living space, all accessible from the main floor, which includes another bedroom, bath, kitchen, and living room. Clean, solid, and full of potential! Enjoy a large driveway, fenced yard, and a layout that truly feels like home.

22. 2025-06-27
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Spacious and versatile 3 bed, 2 bath home in Bay City’s South End! Thoughtfully designed with flexible living in mind, this well-maintained home features two full kitchens, two living rooms, and a layout perfect for extended family or a private guest suite. The upper level offers 2 bedrooms, a full bath, kitchen, and living space, all accessible from the main floor, which includes another bedroom, bath, kitchen, and living room. Clean, solid, and full of potential! Enjoy a large driveway, fenced yard, and a layout that truly feels like home.

23. 2025-06-22
    listed $109,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Spacious and versatile 3 bed, 2 bath home in Bay City’s South End! Thoughtfully designed with flexible living in mind, this well-maintained home features two full kitchens, two living rooms, and a layout perfect for extended family or a private guest suite. The upper level offers 2 bedrooms, a full bath, kitchen, and living space, all accessible from the main floor, which includes another bedroom, bath, kitchen, and living room. Clean, solid, and full of potential! Enjoy a large driveway, fenced yard, and a layout that truly feels like home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,904 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,914 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$11/yr (+$1/mo · 0.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,296
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,904
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,384
• − Management: −$1,384
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1,361
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$327
• After-tax cash flow: $2,942/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• County: Bay County · 36,975 people
• City population: 25,635
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• Population (ZIP): 25,635
• Household income: $50,518
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 528.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.21%
• Current HPI: 183.5774
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+13.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $125,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $125,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-22 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-21 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-04 Listed $140,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-04 Listed $140,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $107,000 Public Records
• 2025-07-29 Sold (MLS) $107,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-06-27 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-06-22 Listed $109,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,904 · +42.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.