7 Russell Rd · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$899,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,434 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1964 0.26 ac lot Est $799k · 13% over ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.9/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom home offers comfort, convenience, and incredible potential. Located on a spacious lot with room for a pool, the property is in excellent condition and features a brand-new roof along with many other upgrades. Whether you're looking for a year-round residence, a vacation retreat, or an investment opportunity, this home is ready to go. Don't miss your chance to enjoy the Hamptons lifestyle in a move-in-ready home with room to grow.

Key facts

• Move-in-ready home
• Many upgrades
• Spacious lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• BRAND-NEW ROOF
• MANY UPGRADES
• MOVE-IN-READY HOME

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $899k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $899k).
• Recommended offer: $872k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 6.4% in Hampton Bays — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $9,465/mo this rent would consume 85% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $27k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $252k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($872k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $872,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.08%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $798,738
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3 Vine St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+5%)	1mo	$785,000	$523	70
35A Neptune Ave	0.18mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,388 (-3%)	12mo	$935,000	$674	67
53 Shore Rd	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,390 (-3%)	10mo	$774,000	$557	65
129 Springville Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,520 (+6%)	15mo	$780,000	$513	65
52 Springville Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,322 (-8%)	21mo	$720,000	$545	64
17 Washington Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+5%)	14mo	$1,800,000	$1,200	61
5 Coolidge Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-2%)	8mo	$699,000	$499	61
58 Ocean Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+12%)	4mo	$910,000	$569	60
6 Nassau Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,526 (+6%)	14mo	$790,000	$518	60
2 Marinea Pl	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-12%)	14mo	$1,090,000	$865	49
4A Last	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,623 (+13%)	8mo	$2,400,000	$1,479	38
43 West Tiana Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	12mo	$632,000	$506	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $25,384
• Equity at exit: $134,044

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $404,930
• Equity at exit: $77,729

Cash invested: $251,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,465 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,714
• Tax from tax record: −$484 /mo · $5,806/yr
• Insurance: −$375
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,988
• Net cashflow: $1,904

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,054

Max offer price $899,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $224,750
• Closing costs: $26,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
51 Ocean Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$5,000	$4.17	43d	1	0.31mi
35 Grant Blvd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	1484	$35,000	$23.58	24d	1	0.38mi
58 Ocean Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$10,000	$6.25	43d	1	0.39mi
28 Bay Ave W Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	945	$66,000	$69.84	43d	1	0.45mi
71 Hampton Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	1500	$18,000	$12.00	24d	1	0.47mi
18 Maryland Blvd Unit 1429741P Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1732	$7,445	$4.30	1d	1	0.74mi
73 W Tiana Rd Unit 11 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$11,000	$11.00	43d	1	0.82mi
121 Ponquogue Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1316	$27,000	$20.52	24d	1	0.85mi
229 Springville Rd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1200	$6,000	$5.00	18d	1	0.91mi
47 School St Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	1700	$25,000	$14.71	43d	1	0.97mi
6 Rolling Hill Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1697	$18,000	$10.61	1d	1	1.01mi
94 Bay Ave E Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$20,000	$20.00	15d	1	1.02mi
104 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.5	900	$15,000	$16.67	43d	1	1.04mi
37 Maryland Blvd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1640	$20,000	$12.20	43d	1	1.05mi
6 Long Ln Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1163	$40,000	$34.39	24d	1	1.05mi
40 Kyle Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1320	$5,000	$3.79	43d	1	1.06mi
5 Ardmore Ct Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1800	$28,000	$15.56	18d	1	1.10mi
45 Bellows Ter Unit B Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	1722	$7,000	$4.07	43d	1	1.12mi
36 Nautilus Dr Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.5	1726	$36,000	$20.86	43d	1	1.19mi
60 Lynncliff Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1536	$27,000	$17.58	43d	1	1.24mi
2 Fairview Rd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1440	$17,500	$12.15	17d	1	1.28mi
15 Gardners Ln Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1665	$30,000	$18.02	18d	1	1.32mi
18 Old Riverhead Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1056	$13,500	$12.78	24d	1	1.32mi
7 Huckleberry Ln Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	1608	$5,600	$3.48	18d	1	1.34mi
138 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.0	1040	$16,000	$15.38	10d	1	1.34mi
25 Gardners Ln Unit A Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.5	1000	$3,750	$3.75	24d	1	1.35mi
3 Debbie Trl Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1375	$5,500	$4.00	20d	1	1.36mi
3 Foster Ave Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1400	$5,000	$3.57	43d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-11-20
   soldstatus $855,000
2. 2025-09-04
   status Pending
3. 2025-07-17
   listed $899,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,806 · $484/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,500 · $875/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,693/yr (+$391/mo · 80.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $113,579
• − Mortgage interest: −$50,358
• − Property taxes: −$5,806
• − Insurance: −$4,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,086
• − Management: −$9,086
• − Depreciation: −$26,153
• Taxable income: $8,594
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,063
• After-tax cash flow: $20,790/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-4.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $855,000 Public Records
• 2025-09-04 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-17 Listed $899,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $5,806 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.