1925 Otay Lakes Rd Spc 175 · Chula Vista, CA 91913

$149,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 744 sqft · Manufactured · 30 Days on market

Built 1972 30 ac lot Est $164k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful home in this upscale SENIOR community! Split floor plan with bedrooms at each end of the home and 1.5 bathrooms. The den is being utilized as storage/laundry room. Beautiful eat-in kitchen with all appliances included. This home has a great deck to enjoy the songs of the birds and your morning coffee, surrounded by beautiful trees. Large lot with tall trees, patio area and large storage shed/workshop. AAK3696.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Patio area
• Outdoor deck

Tags

• OUTDOOR DECK
• PATIO AREA
• STORAGE SHED
• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES
• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area and lot size sourced from public records
• HOA & community: Senior community; Land lease community with a land lease amount of $1,371

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story property; Has a view
• Exterior features: Community pool; Park nearby; Front yard; Yard; Curbs and sidewalks in the community; Community park

Interior

• Bedrooms: All bedrooms located on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window cooling
• Interior features: One-level home with all bedrooms on the ground floor; Front entry
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups reported

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.4% vs local median 2.7% in Chula Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#127 in CA, #4,345 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Sweetwater Union High (suburban): math 36% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #187 of 517 in CA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 171 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $121k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $147,749 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.32%
• DSCR: 2.93
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $163,680
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1925 Otay Lakes Rd. #20	0.00mi	2/1.5	804 (+8%)	23mo	$177,000	$220	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $65,558
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.69×
• Total profit: $155,083
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91913

• Home prices YoY: -30.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 171
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,231 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$679
• Net cashflow: $1,516

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $149,999

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
767 Eastshore Ter #219 Chula Vista, CA	1.0	1.0	441	$2,500	$5.67	24d	1	0.83mi
1250 Santa Cora Ave Chula Vista, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	952	$3,234	$3.40	2d	35	0.88mi
1445 Town Center Dr Chula Vista, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	926	$3,960	$4.28	2d	20	1.33mi
1625 Santa Venetia St Chula Vista, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1008	$3,352	$3.33	2d	24	1.45mi
1390 Santa Alicia Ave Chula Vista, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1050	$3,278	$3.12	2d	15	1.49mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,999 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,999 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,999 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,999 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,999 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,999 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,999 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,999 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,999 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,999 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,999 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,999 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,999 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,999 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    listed $149,999 Active
16. 2023-12-15
    soldstatus $121,000 Closed Sale 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    Beautiful home in this upscale SENIOR community! Split floor plan with bedrooms at each end of the home and 1.5 bathrooms. The den is being utilized as storage/laundry room. Beautiful eat-in kitchen with all appliances included. This home has a great deck to enjoy the songs of the birds and your morning coffee, surrounded by beautiful trees. Large lot with tall trees, patio area and large storage shed/workshop. AAK3696.

17. 2023-11-07
    status Pending Sale 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    Beautiful home in this upscale SENIOR community! Split floor plan with bedrooms at each end of the home and 1.5 bathrooms. The den is being utilized as storage/laundry room. Beautiful eat-in kitchen with all appliances included. This home has a great deck to enjoy the songs of the birds and your morning coffee, surrounded by beautiful trees. Large lot with tall trees, patio area and large storage shed/workshop. AAK3696.

18. 2023-10-14
    listed $125,000 Active 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    Beautiful home in this upscale SENIOR community! Split floor plan with bedrooms at each end of the home and 1.5 bathrooms. The den is being utilized as storage/laundry room. Beautiful eat-in kitchen with all appliances included. This home has a great deck to enjoy the songs of the birds and your morning coffee, surrounded by beautiful trees. Large lot with tall trees, patio area and large storage shed/workshop. AAK3696.

19. 2023-10-07
    historical $125,000 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    Beautiful home in this upscale SENIOR community! Split floor plan with bedrooms at each end of the home and 1.5 bathrooms. The den is being utilized as storage/laundry room. Beautiful eat-in kitchen with all appliances included. This home has a great deck to enjoy the songs of the birds and your morning coffee, surrounded by beautiful trees. Large lot with tall trees, patio area and large storage shed/workshop. AAK3696.

20. 2016-06-09
    soldstatus $67,500 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Totally Remodeled from top to bottom. New roof, windows, wooden floors, kitchen counter tops, bathrooms. Two master bedrooms , 2 baths, open kitchen, living and dinning room. Spacious porch, 2 car covered driveway. Very cute home in the prestigious Otay Lakes Lodge Park. Close to all the East Lake and Otay Ranch shopping centers, restaurants, walking trails. A quiet retreat, yet close to all. Enjoy the Club House, pristine pool, beautifully maintained gardens. RV/ boat parking available at park Neighborhoods: College Estates Complex Features: , ,, ,, , Equipment: Washer Other Fees: 0 Sewer: Sewer Connected Topography: LL

21. 2016-06-09
    soldstatus $67,500 Sold 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Totally Remodeled from top to bottom. New roof, windows, wooden floors, kitchen counter tops, bathrooms. Two master bedrooms , 2 baths, open kitchen, living and dinning room. Spacious porch, 2 car covered driveway. Very cute home in the prestigious Otay Lakes Lodge Park. Close to all the East Lake and Otay Ranch shopping centers, restaurants, walking trails. A quiet retreat, yet close to all. Enjoy the Club House, pristine pool, beautifully maintained gardens. RV/ boat parking available at park Neighborhoods: College Estates Complex Features: , ,, ,, , Equipment: Washer Other Fees: 0 Sewer: Sewer Connected Topography: LL

22. 2016-04-13
    status Pending 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Totally Remodeled from top to bottom. New roof, windows, wooden floors, kitchen counter tops, bathrooms. Two master bedrooms , 2 baths, open kitchen, living and dinning room. Spacious porch, 2 car covered driveway. Very cute home in the prestigious Otay Lakes Lodge Park. Close to all the East Lake and Otay Ranch shopping centers, restaurants, walking trails. A quiet retreat, yet close to all. Enjoy the Club House, pristine pool, beautifully maintained gardens. RV/ boat parking available at park Neighborhoods: College Estates Complex Features: , ,, ,, , Equipment: Washer Other Fees: 0 Sewer: Sewer Connected Topography: LL

23. 2016-03-13
    listed $70,000 Active 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Totally Remodeled from top to bottom. New roof, windows, wooden floors, kitchen counter tops, bathrooms. Two master bedrooms , 2 baths, open kitchen, living and dinning room. Spacious porch, 2 car covered driveway. Very cute home in the prestigious Otay Lakes Lodge Park. Close to all the East Lake and Otay Ranch shopping centers, restaurants, walking trails. A quiet retreat, yet close to all. Enjoy the Club House, pristine pool, beautifully maintained gardens. RV/ boat parking available at park Neighborhoods: College Estates Complex Features: , ,, ,, , Equipment: Washer Other Fees: 0 Sewer: Sewer Connected Topography: LL

24. 2016-03-10
    listed $70,000 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Totally Remodeled from top to bottom. New roof, windows, wooden floors, kitchen counter tops, bathrooms. Two master bedrooms , 2 baths, open kitchen, living and dinning room. Spacious porch, 2 car covered driveway. Very cute home in the prestigious Otay Lakes Lodge Park. Close to all the East Lake and Otay Ranch shopping centers, restaurants, walking trails. A quiet retreat, yet close to all. Enjoy the Club House, pristine pool, beautifully maintained gardens. RV/ boat parking available at park Neighborhoods: College Estates Complex Features: , ,, ,, , Equipment: Washer Other Fees: 0 Sewer: Sewer Connected Topography: LL

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 4 d/yr ≥90°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,776
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,102
• − Management: −$3,102
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $16,806
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,034
• After-tax cash flow: $14,161/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sweetwater Union High
• NCES district ID: 0638640
• Math proficiency: 36% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,051
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4158
• State rank: #187 of 517 in CA

Livability — Chula Vista

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #4345

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chula Vista, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 255,708
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 57,721
• Household income: $129,337
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1806.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% Asian 25% Two or more races 24% White 14% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Hispanic 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 34% Tagalog/Filipino 11% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.26%
• Current HPI: 350.4967
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.88%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+114.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $149,999 CRMLS
• 2023-12-15 Sold (MLS) $121,000 CRMLS
• 2023-11-07 Pending — CRMLS
• 2023-10-14 Listed $125,000 CRMLS
• 2023-10-07 Coming Soon $125,000 CRMLS
• 2016-06-09 Sold (MLS) $67,500 SDMLS
• 2016-06-09 Sold (MLS) $67,500 CRMLS
• 2016-04-13 Pending — SDMLS
• 2016-03-13 Listed $70,000 SDMLS
• 2016-03-10 Listed $70,000 CRMLS