104 Burrs Mill Rd · Leisuretowne, NJ
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 7/10 · Major
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $526 – $976
Heat risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Hot days now (above 103°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 56.0%
Air-quality risk 4/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 4 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 5 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Schools +4.5/10.0
- Livability +2.9/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$135,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Auction UPDATE! Due to the prior high bidder’s failure to timely deliver the required deposit in accordance with the auction terms, the property is being re-offered for sale and the bid deadline has been extended. Rare opportunity in desirable Southampton Township. This 1-acre property offers exceptional potential for renovation or new construction in a prime location. The existing 1930 home provides a great start while the true value lies in the expansive lot and long-term possibilities. Whether you’re an investor, builder, or buyer looking to create a custom home, this property delivers flexibility and upside in a sought-after area. Property is currently occupied. Showings available during scheduled preview events with pre-registration required. Auction bidding opens at $125,000 plus buyer’s premium. Seller reserves the right to accept an offer prior to auction close. Take advantage of this unique chance to secure land and opportunity in Southampton Township. The seller is seeking all cash as is bids.
Key facts
- Existing dwelling
- 1 acre lot
- Land
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $868 ($10k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $135k).
- Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 4.0% in Leisuretowne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 57/100 on livability (#516 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
- Lenape Regional High School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #136 of 472 in NJ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Market conditions: 161 active listings in the ZIP; 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 248 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 3 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask is 8% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
- Current owner paid $85k; list at $135k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 248 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.97% ✓
- Cap rate
- 14.01%
- Cash-on-cash
- 27.55%
- DSCR
- 2.23
- GRM
- 4.2
CMA / ARV
No comps found within radius.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 21.7%
- Equity multiple
- 1.89×
- Total profit
- $33,616
- Equity at exit
- $20,129
- IRR
- 29.9%
- Equity multiple
- 3.68×
- Total profit
- $101,345
- Equity at exit
- $11,672
Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 21 Tenant-Leaning
- State New Jersey
- 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 08088
- Active inventory
- 161
- Price-to-rent
- 4.2×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,656 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$708
- Tax from tax record
- −$466 /mo · $5,596/yr
- Insurance
- −$56
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$558
- Net cashflow
- $868
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $944 | -5% $906 | +0% $868 | +5% $830 | +10% $791 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $658 | -5% $763 | +0% $868 | +5% $973 | +10% $1,078 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $936 | -0.5pp $902 | base $868 | +0.5pp $833 | +1.0pp $797 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $33,750
- Closing costs
- $4,050
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Listing history 21 events
-
2026-06-21days on market $135,000 Active 248 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $135,000 Active 245 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $135,000 Active 244 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $135,000 Active 243 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $135,000 Active 242 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $135,000 Active 240 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $135,000 Active 239 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $135,000 Active 236 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $135,000 Active 235 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $135,000 Active 234 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $135,000 Active 231 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $135,000 Active 230 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $135,000 Active 229 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $135,000 Active 228 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $135,000 Active 227 DOM
-
2026-02-17status Active 1036-char remark
Show marketing remark (1036 chars)
Auction UPDATE! Due to the prior high bidder’s failure to timely deliver the required deposit in accordance with the auction terms, the property is being re-offered for sale and the bid deadline has been extended. Rare opportunity in desirable Southampton Township. This 1-acre property offers exceptional potential for renovation or new construction in a prime location. The existing 1930 home provides a great start while the true value lies in the expansive lot and long-term possibilities. Whether you’re an investor, builder, or buyer looking to create a custom home, this property delivers flexibility and upside in a sought-after area. Property is currently occupied. Showings available during scheduled preview events with pre-registration required. Auction bidding opens at $125,000 plus buyer’s premium. Seller reserves the right to accept an offer prior to auction close. Take advantage of this unique chance to secure land and opportunity in Southampton Township. The seller is seeking all cash as is bids.
-
2026-02-16historical 1036-char remark
Show marketing remark (1036 chars)
Auction UPDATE! Due to the prior high bidder’s failure to timely deliver the required deposit in accordance with the auction terms, the property is being re-offered for sale and the bid deadline has been extended. Rare opportunity in desirable Southampton Township. This 1-acre property offers exceptional potential for renovation or new construction in a prime location. The existing 1930 home provides a great start while the true value lies in the expansive lot and long-term possibilities. Whether you’re an investor, builder, or buyer looking to create a custom home, this property delivers flexibility and upside in a sought-after area. Property is currently occupied. Showings available during scheduled preview events with pre-registration required. Auction bidding opens at $125,000 plus buyer’s premium. Seller reserves the right to accept an offer prior to auction close. Take advantage of this unique chance to secure land and opportunity in Southampton Township. The seller is seeking all cash as is bids.
-
2025-10-16$125,000 Active 1036-char remark
Show marketing remark (1036 chars)
Auction UPDATE! Due to the prior high bidder’s failure to timely deliver the required deposit in accordance with the auction terms, the property is being re-offered for sale and the bid deadline has been extended. Rare opportunity in desirable Southampton Township. This 1-acre property offers exceptional potential for renovation or new construction in a prime location. The existing 1930 home provides a great start while the true value lies in the expansive lot and long-term possibilities. Whether you’re an investor, builder, or buyer looking to create a custom home, this property delivers flexibility and upside in a sought-after area. Property is currently occupied. Showings available during scheduled preview events with pre-registration required. Auction bidding opens at $125,000 plus buyer’s premium. Seller reserves the right to accept an offer prior to auction close. Take advantage of this unique chance to secure land and opportunity in Southampton Township. The seller is seeking all cash as is bids.
-
2013-10-24soldstatus $85,000
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2012-06-07historical
-
2011-11-18$127,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $5,596 · $466/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $5,596 · $466/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 7/10 Severe
- Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $31,873
- − Mortgage interest
- −$7,562
- − Property taxes
- −$5,596
- − Insurance
- −$675
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,550
- − Management
- −$2,550
- − Depreciation
- −$3,927
- Taxable income
- $9,013
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$2,163
- After-tax cash flow
- $8,250/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Lenape Regional High School District
- NCES district ID
- 3408490
- Math proficiency
- 34% ▼ -2.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 60% ▼ -5.00%
- Median HH income
- $98,739
- Composite
- 44.86/100
- National rank
- #2724
- State rank
- #136 of 472 in NJ
Livability — Leisuretowne
- Score
- 57/100
- State rank
- #516
- US rank
- #21971
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Population (ZIP)
- 24,153
Population outlook (Burlington County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 453,425 people
- By 2030
- 452,359 · -0.2%
- By 2040
- 445,033 · -1.9%
- By 2050
- 431,760 · -4.8%
- By 2075
- 406,277 · -10.4%
- By 2100
- 364,732 · -19.6%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (90%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 90% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2% Black 1%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 8% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 4% · Canada, China
- Languages at home
- 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Burlington
- 2024 margin
- D (+16.6) · D 57.6% · R 41.0% · Other 1.3%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -2.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 16.6pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+19.5 2016: D+14.8 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+18.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -214.45%
- Current HPI
- 302.9094
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.05%
- F500 in state
- 34
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer Goods | 3 | $31B |
|
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| Pharmaceuticals | 2 | $153B |
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| Technology | 2 | $21B |
|
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| Insurance | 2 | $20B |
|
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| Healthcare | 2 | $19B |
|
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| Financial Services | 1 | $70B |
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Price history
-1.6% since first listed6 events — show timeline
- 2026-02-17 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
- 2026-02-16 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
- 2025-10-16 Listed $125,000 BRIGHT MLS
- 2013-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
- 2012-06-07 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
- 2011-11-18 Listed $127,000 BRIGHT MLS
Property tax history
+2.3%/yrLatest (2025): $5,596 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…