6550 Ponto Dr #14 · Carlsbad, CA 92011

$249,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 810 sqft · Manufactured public records · 149 Days on market

Built 1998 14 ac lot $307/sqft · 77% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Coastal Living Just Steps from the Sand! Welcome to your beachside retreat at 6550 Ponto Drive, Space 14 in the highly sought-after Lanikai Lane community. This is an All-Ages park located directly across from South Carlsbad State Beach. This newly remodeled 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the perfect blend of style, comfort, and location. Step inside to a bright and airy open floor plan filled with natural light. The home features a beautifully updated kitchen and spacious living areas. Enjoy peace of mind knowing everything has been thoughtfully refreshed, allowing you to move right in and start living the coastal lifestyle. Relax on your private patio while enjoying the ocean breeze or take a short stroll to the sand for sunsets and surf. Living at Lanikai Lane means more than just a home—it’s a lifestyle. The vibrant community offers resort-style amenities, including a pool, jacuzzi, clubhouse with billiards and table tennis, a family room with fireplace, and gathering space. Space rent is $3,100 per month. New roof and Section 1 Clearance completed in January 2026.

Key facts

• Private patio
• Updated kitchen
• Pool

Tags

• HIGHLY SOUGHT-AFTER COMMUNITY
• NEWLY REMODELED
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PATIO
• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES
• POOL

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $249,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$1,060,367) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $249k).
• Recommended offer: $219k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 2.1% in Carlsbad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#67 in CA, #2,526 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Carlsbad Unified (urban): math 68% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #87 of 1,400 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($159k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $185k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.64%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,060,367
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: -76.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.75% appreciation · 3.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $129,408
• Equity at exit: $94,844

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.68×
• Total profit: $326,043
• Equity at exit: $134,035

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92011

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,094 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $538/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$860
• Net cashflow: $1,780

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,841

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
902 Caminito Madrigal Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	1.0	897	$3,200	$3.57	11d	1	0.64mi
908 Caminito Madrigal Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	897	$4,500	$5.02	43d	1	0.68mi
908 Caminito Madrigal Unit D Carlsbad, CA	2.0	1.5	897	$4,500	$5.02	43d	1	0.69mi
6675 Paseo del Norte Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	959	$4,300	$4.48	43d	1	0.70mi
6675 Paseo del Norte Unit A Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	959	$3,850	$4.01	5d	1	0.70mi
6677 Paseo Del Norte Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	959	$4,500	$4.69	43d	1	0.71mi
6677 Paseo del Norte Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	1.0	959	$3,950	$4.12	43d	1	0.71mi
6555 Sea Gate Rd Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1114	$4,095	$3.67	1d	3	0.75mi
925 Wind Drift Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.5	1110	$3,895	$3.51	43d	1	0.76mi
6938 Seascape Dr Carlsbad, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$3,775	$4.66	3d	9	0.84mi
1205 Aviara Pkwy Carlsbad, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	917	$4,880	$5.32	2d	42	1.37mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,000 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,000 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 134 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 133 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 131 DOM
15. 2026-01-20
    listed $249,000 Active 1096-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1096 chars)

    Coastal Living Just Steps from the Sand! Welcome to your beachside retreat at 6550 Ponto Drive, Space 14 in the highly sought-after Lanikai Lane community. This is an All-Ages park located directly across from South Carlsbad State Beach. This newly remodeled 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the perfect blend of style, comfort, and location. Step inside to a bright and airy open floor plan filled with natural light. The home features a beautifully updated kitchen and spacious living areas. Enjoy peace of mind knowing everything has been thoughtfully refreshed, allowing you to move right in and start living the coastal lifestyle. Relax on your private patio while enjoying the ocean breeze or take a short stroll to the sand for sunsets and surf. Living at Lanikai Lane means more than just a home—it’s a lifestyle. The vibrant community offers resort-style amenities, including a pool, jacuzzi, clubhouse with billiards and table tennis, a family room with fireplace, and gathering space. Space rent is $3,100 per month. New roof and Section 1 Clearance completed in January 2026.

16. 2026-01-12
    historical
17. 2025-11-18
    status Active
18. 2025-11-05
    historical Active Under Contract
19. 2025-10-01
    listed $239,000 Active
20. 2023-12-18
    soldstatus $185,000 Sold
21. 2023-11-18
    status Pending
22. 2023-11-08
    listed $195,000 Active
23. 2017-03-27
    historical
24. 2017-03-26
    historical
25. 2016-12-03
    historical
26. 2016-11-09
    listed $125,000 Active
27. 2016-11-07
    listed $125,000
28. 2016-08-11
    price $137,900
29. 2016-06-24
    listed $159,900 Active
30. 2013-07-29
    soldstatus $110,000 Sold
31. 2013-07-29
    soldstatus $110,000
32. 2013-07-08
    status Pending
33. 2013-06-07
    listed $110,000 Active
34. 2013-06-07
    listed $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $538 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,892 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,354/yr (+$113/mo · 251.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,129
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$538
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,930
• − Management: −$3,930
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable income: $18,294
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,391
• After-tax cash flow: $16,969/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlsbad Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607500
• Math proficiency: 68% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,200
• Composite: 65.11/100
• National rank: #1068
• State rank: #87 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #2526

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 114,373
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 23,190
• Household income: $159,235
• Rent vs Own: 36.0% rent · 64.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 714.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 4% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.75%
• Current HPI: 399.8502
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.54%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+126.4% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-20 Listed $249,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-12 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-11-18 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-11-05 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listed $239,000 CRMLS
• 2023-12-18 Sold (MLS) $185,000 SDMLS
• 2023-11-18 Pending — SDMLS
• 2023-11-08 Listed $195,000 SDMLS
• 2017-03-27 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2017-03-26 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2016-12-03 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2016-11-09 Listed $125,000 SDMLS
• 2016-11-07 Listed $125,000 CRMLS
• 2016-08-11 Price Changed $137,900 CRMLS
• 2016-06-24 Listed $159,900 CRMLS
• 2013-07-29 Sold (MLS) $110,000 CRMLS
• 2013-07-29 Sold (MLS) $110,000 SDMLS
• 2013-07-08 Pending — SDMLS
• 2013-06-07 Listed $110,000 SDMLS
• 2013-06-07 Listed $110,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2013): $538 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.