7858 N Merrimac Way · Citrus Springs, FL 34434

$289,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,827 sqft · Land · 97 Days on market

Built 2025 10,000 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks

This brand-new, affordable four-bedroom, three-bathroom new construction home in Citrus Springs is complete and ready for its new owner. Newly installed privacy fence! 9’4" foot ceilings throughout! Conveniently located right next to the Withlacoochee Trail bike path, and near schools, the entrance to Citrus Springs, and shopping, this home is centrally located. The kitchen is equipped with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, an island with a double bowl stainless steel sink, a Moen faucet, a garbage disposal, and 36-inch cabinets. Enjoy upgraded ceramic tile floors throughout, and granite countertops in the bathrooms. Experience elevated living in this exquisite new

Key facts

• Privacy fence
• Granite countertops
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVACY FENCE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ISLAND WITH DOUBLE BOWL SINK
• UPGRADED CERAMIC TILE FLOORS
• NO HOMEOWNER ASSOCIATION

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community clubhouse; Golf access; Park; On-site restaurant

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; Attached 2-car garage with concrete driveway and garage door opener
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; New construction; One level; Faces northeast; Has home warranty
• Construction: Built with block, concrete and stucco; Block and slab foundation; Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Outdoor lighting; Sliding doors; Fenced yard with privacy vinyl fencing; Cleared and landscaped lot; Paved road frontage (county road)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Freezer; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stone counters; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Pantry; Stone counters; Walk-in closet(s); High-speed internet
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-393 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (19.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (29.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (29.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#521 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Ridge Elementary School (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,383 of 2,144 statewide, top 65%, 723 students, 64% FRL); Citrus Springs Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 821 students, 59% FRL); Lecanto High School (math 46% / reading 53%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,630 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1242 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $289k implies a 502% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,097 (29.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.82%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-71,814
• Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-94,620
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34434

• Home prices YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 1242
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,031 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$361 /mo · $4,335/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-393

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,528

Max offer price $232,169

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8190 N Wakefield Dr Dunnellon, FL	4.0	2.0	1772	$1,750	$0.99	21d	1	0.92mi
8180 N Wakefield Dr Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,695	$1.13	21d	1	0.93mi
8398 N Jay Dr Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1541	$1,700	$1.10	21d	1	0.99mi
8450 N Travis Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,900	$1.06	21d	1	0.99mi
696 W Hallam Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1797	$1,900	$1.06	21d	1	1.02mi
8755 N Nobleton Way Dunnellon, FL	4.0	2.0	1449	$1,815	$1.25	21d	1	1.17mi
572 W Bluster Pl Dunnellon, FL	4.0	2.0	1630	$1,900	$1.17	21d	1	1.20mi
788 W Glenhaven Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1621	$1,800	$1.11	21d	1	1.31mi
904 W Rum Pl Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,699	$1.17	21d	1	1.37mi
9066 N Akola Way Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1833	$2,150	$1.17	21d	1	1.41mi
9065 N Akola Way Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1511	$1,795	$1.19	21d	1	1.41mi
1301 N Galgano St Dunnellon, FL	4.0	3.0	2381	$2,800	$1.18	21d	1	1.45mi
8030 N Galena Ave Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,150	$1.17	21d	1	1.45mi
7908 N Galena Ave Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.5	1551	$1,850	$1.19	21d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-06
   price $289,000
3. 2026-04-16
   price $294,000
4. 2026-02-08
   listed $299,000 Active
5. 2025-12-26
   historical
6. 2025-12-11
   price $303,900
7. 2025-12-11
   price $303,900
8. 2025-09-03
   price $310,000
9. 2025-09-03
   price $310,000
10. 2025-08-10
    listed $314,900 Active
11. 2024-08-01
    soldstatus $48,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,372
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$4,335
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,950
• − Management: −$1,950
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$9,904
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,377
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,336/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Citrus Springs

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #9598

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Citrus Springs, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 10,730
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,074
• Household income: $68,939
• Rent vs Own: 12.4% rent · 87.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 171.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.70%
• Current HPI: 328.2164
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+502.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — RACC
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $289,000 RACC
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $294,000 RACC
• 2026-02-08 Listed $299,000 RACC
• 2025-12-26 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $303,900 RACC
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $303,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $310,000 RACC
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $310,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-10 Listed $314,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $292 · +112.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.