4 W Garfield Ave · New Castle, PA 16105

$96,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,072 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1920 6,098 sqft lot Est $145k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well constructed home in New Castles North Hill district, situated close to UPMC Jameson, shopping, and travel. Home has brand new carpets and fresh paint throughout. The recently remodeled bathroom's curbless shower and rear deck ramp offer ADA compliance. Detached two car garage and covered front porch add to this charming homes appeal.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Original woodwork
• Expansive back deck

Tags

• ORIGINAL WOODWORK
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• EXPANSIVE BACK DECK
• AMPLE OFF-STREET PARKING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage
• Utilities: Public water service; Public sewer service
• Home design: 2-story home; Resale property
• Exterior features: Public water; Public sewer

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Gas heating
• Interior features: Unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $96k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $388 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $96k).
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 8.7% in New Castle — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#137 in PA, #1,120 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F.
• New Castle Area SD (town): math 9% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #519 of 539 in PA (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 51 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $664 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $96,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.33%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $144,720
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1406 N Mercer St	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,094 (+2%)	9mo	$133,000	$122	74
11 E Sheridan Ave	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,176 (+10%)	12mo	$150,000	$128	60
2001 Line Rd	0.65mi	2/1.0	1,026 (-4%)	5mo	$195,000	$190	58
1303 Highland Ave	0.52mi	2/1.0	1,000 (-7%)	8mo	$52,500	$53	58
122 Kenneth Ave	0.29mi	2/1.0	924 (-14%)	14mo	$155,000	$168	52
810 N Mercer St	0.29mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,228 (+15%)	12mo	$95,000	$77	45
511 E Garfield Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,142 (+6%)	2mo	$160,000	$140	44
407 Boyles Ave	0.72mi	2/1.0	1,185 (+10%)	8mo	$79,900	$67	42
902 Delaware Ave	0.75mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,188 (+11%)	2mo	$109,000	$92	40
208 W Meyer Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,026 (-4%)	14mo	$190,500	$186	40
1715 Highland Ave	0.62mi	3/1.5 (+1)	950 (-11%)	13mo	$185,000	$195	34
904 Delaware Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,188 (+11%)	15mo	$160,000	$135	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $9,197
• Equity at exit: $14,314

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $39,945
• Equity at exit: $8,300

Cash invested: $26,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16105

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,336 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$503
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,481/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $844

Max offer price $96,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,000
• Closing costs: $2,880
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $96,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $96,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $96,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $96,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $96,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $96,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $96,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   remarks 593-char remark
9. 2026-06-09
   listed $96,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,481 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,499 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$18/yr (+$1/mo · 1.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,028
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,377
• − Property taxes: −$1,481
• − Insurance: −$480
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,282
• − Management: −$1,282
• − Depreciation: −$2,793
• Taxable income: $3,332
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$800
• After-tax cash flow: $3,860/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Castle Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4216620
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -23.00%
• Median HH income: $30,967
• Composite: 11.08/100
• National rank: #9736
• State rank: #519 of 539 in PA

Livability — New Castle

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #1120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Castle, PA
• City population: 30,767
• Population (ZIP): 15,195

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,781 people
• By 2030: 77,978 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 69,522 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 61,344 · -25.0%
• By 2075: 45,027 · -44.9%
• By 2100: 31,305 · -61.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.8% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.7pp toward R · 2008: -5.1pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+9.0 2008: R+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.26%
• Current HPI: 173.0332
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+109.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $96,000 West Penn MLS
• 2021-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2021-07-27 Sold (MLS) $80,000 West Penn MLS
• 2021-06-16 Pending — West Penn MLS
• 2021-05-26 Listed $75,000 West Penn MLS
• 2007-05-02 Sold (MLS) $23,300 West Penn MLS
• 2007-03-07 Listed $23,000 West Penn MLS
• 2003-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2003-06-17 Sold (MLS) $45,000 West Penn MLS
• 2003-01-15 Listed $45,900 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,481 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.