630 New Suffolk Rd · Cutchogue, NY 11935

$949,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,100 sqft · SingleFamily · 94 Days on market

Built 1910 1.00 ac lot $452/sqft · 31% below area Est $1372k · 31% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover timeless charm and classic North Fork living in this stately 1910 Grand Dame, gracefully sited in one of Cutchogue’s desirable locations. Featuring four bedrooms and three well-proportioned floors, this distinguished home showcases a gambrel roof and period details that reflect a bygone era. Ideally situated just moments from the heart of Cutchogue village, you’ll enjoy easy access to local restaurants, shops, the library, and nearby beaches. Golf courses, vineyards, and award-winning wineries are all within minutes, offering the best of North Fork’s coastal lifestyle. This property backs up to the historic "The Old House - 1649" property, one of the original homes on the North Fork, providing both privacy and a sense of place steeped in local history. With generous living space, classic architectural lines, and a location that balances tranquility with convenience, this rare offering is perfect as a full-time residence or cherished weekend retreat. Come make your mark on a true North Fork classic.

Key facts

• Period details
• Gambrel roof
• Easy access to shops

Tags

• GAMBREL ROOF
• PERIOD DETAILS
• HISTORIC THE OLD HOUSE
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPS
• EASY ACCESS TO LIBRARY
• EASY ACCESS TO NEARBY BEACHES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $949k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($114k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($19k rent vs $949k).
• Recommended offer: $864k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.3% vs local median 7.5% in Cutchogue — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#843 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #127 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $101k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $95k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $266k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$163k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($864k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $863,590 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.79%
• DSCR: 2.90
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,371,641
• List price: $949,000
• Delta: -30.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1125 Pequash Ave	0.46mi	4/2.0	2,200 (+5%)	1mo	$861,000	$391	68
555 Alvahs Ln	0.53mi	4/2.0	2,100 (0%)	17mo	$1,020,000	$486	59
1760 Crown Land Ln	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,246 (+7%)	11mo	$1,515,000	$675	56
2870 Fairway Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (-10%)	7mo	$1,280,000	$674	43
1215 Country Club Dr	0.64mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,200 (+5%)	18mo	$1,585,000	$720	40
985 Track Ave	0.72mi	4/3.0	1,800 (-14%)	11mo	$1,435,000	$797	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.22×
• Total profit: $1,120,279
• Equity at exit: $854,934

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.0%
• Equity multiple: 11.63×
• Total profit: $2,824,216
• Equity at exit: $1,843,698

Cash invested: $265,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11935

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $19,476 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,977
• Tax from tax record: −$538 /mo · $6,456/yr
• Insurance: −$395
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,090
• Net cashflow: $9,476

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,481

Max offer price $949,000

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $237,250
• Closing costs: $28,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
530 Stillwater Ave Cutchogue, NY	3.0	2.5	1800	$15,000	$8.33	43d	1	0.51mi
1100 Alvahs Ln Cutchogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2400	$24,200	$10.08	43d	1	0.57mi
25 Moose Trl Cutchogue, NY	4.0	2.0	2600	$20,000	$7.69	43d	1	1.06mi
4900 Depot Ln Cutchogue, NY	3.0	1.5	1800	$3,900	$2.17	43d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $949,000 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $949,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $949,000 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $949,000 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $949,000 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $949,000 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $949,000 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $949,000 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $949,000 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $949,000 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $949,000 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $949,000 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $949,000 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-03-15
    listed $949,000 Active 1052-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1052 chars)

    Discover timeless charm and classic North Fork living in this stately 1910 Grand Dame, gracefully sited in one of Cutchogue’s desirable locations. Featuring four bedrooms and three well-proportioned floors, this distinguished home showcases a gambrel roof and period details that reflect a bygone era. Ideally situated just moments from the heart of Cutchogue village, you’ll enjoy easy access to local restaurants, shops, the library, and nearby beaches. Golf courses, vineyards, and award-winning wineries are all within minutes, offering the best of North Fork’s coastal lifestyle. This property backs up to the historic "The Old House - 1649" property, one of the original homes on the North Fork, providing both privacy and a sense of place steeped in local history. With generous living space, classic architectural lines, and a location that balances tranquility with convenience, this rare offering is perfect as a full-time residence or cherished weekend retreat. Come make your mark on a true North Fork classic.

15. 2025-11-10
    historical
16. 2025-05-23
    listed $999,000 Active
17. 2025-05-09
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,456 · $538/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,247 · $937/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,791/yr (+$399/mo · 74.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $233,713
• − Mortgage interest: −$53,159
• − Property taxes: −$6,456
• − Insurance: −$4,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$18,697
• − Management: −$18,697
• − Depreciation: −$27,607
• Taxable income: $104,352
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$25,044
• After-tax cash flow: $88,668/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3600021
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $84,164
• Composite: 61.4/100
• National rank: #765
• State rank: #127 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cutchogue

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #843
• US rank: #16353

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cutchogue, NY
• City population: 2,946
• Population (ZIP): 2,946

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.82%
• Current HPI: 467.3019
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-15 Listed $949,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-10 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-23 Listed $999,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-09 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,456 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.