496 Berkshire Ave · Buffalo, NY 14215

$80,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 886 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1920 3,300 sqft lot Est $156k · 49% under ↓ 33% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* OUTSTANDING * Welcoming Covered Front Porch, Rebuilt 2021 / Spacious Open Layout From Living Room To Formal Dining Room W Hardwood Floors, Ceiling Fan In Dining Room / Kitchen W Ceiling Fan & Laminate Flooring / Full Bath 1st Floor / 1st Floor Bedroom W Hardwood Floor, Could Be Converted Into Two 1st Floor Bedrooms / 2nd Floor Walkup Flex Room W Hardwood Floors & Freshly Painted / Large 2nd Floor Bedroom W Hardwood Floors & Exposed Chimney / Full Basement W Updated 100 Amp Service, Glass Block Windows, HE Furnace 2021, HE HWT 2025, Copper Plumbing / Huge Partially Fenced Backyard / Other Updates Include Tear Off Roof 2025, Vinyl Windows Throughout 2021, Vinyl Siding -

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• 1st floor bedroom
• Full bath 1st floor

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS OPEN LAYOUT
• KITCHEN WITH CEILING FAN
• FULL BATH 1ST FLOOR
• 1ST FLOOR BEDROOM
• 2ND FLOOR WALKUP FLEX ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $634 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Cap rate 15.8% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 237 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.7% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $80,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.94%
• DSCR: 2.51
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $155,936
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
84 Fennimore Ave	0.23mi	3/1.0	961 (+8%)	1mo	$149,900	$156	74
53 Bickford Ave	0.25mi	3/1.0	962 (+9%)	1mo	$148,000	$154	73
99 Davidson Ave	0.29mi	3/1.0	924 (+4%)	8mo	$110,000	$119	73
165 Hewitt Ave	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	894 (+1%)	1mo	$125,000	$140	69
93 Davidson Ave	0.29mi	3/1.0	924 (+4%)	19mo	$162,500	$176	64
133 Dunlop Ave	0.47mi	3/1.0	962 (+9%)	12mo	$115,000	$120	54
116 Dunlop Ave	0.52mi	3/1.0	962 (+9%)	13mo	$180,000	$187	51
157 Clarence Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0	936 (+6%)	14mo	$195,000	$208	48
340 Martha Ave	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (+6%)	9mo	$180,000	$192	48
342 Phyllis Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0	960 (+8%)	16mo	$170,000	$177	45
19 Allendale Rd	0.64mi	4/1.0 (+1)	990 (+12%)	1mo	$165,000	$167	45
37 Gail Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0	962 (+9%)	11mo	$200,000	$208	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $24,157
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.69×
• Total profit: $60,326
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14215

• Home prices YoY: -30.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 237
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,400 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $230/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $634

Break-even live

Break-even rent $597

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
189 Westminster Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1065	$1,595	$1.50	10d	1	0.14mi
97 Davidson Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	925	$1,495	$1.62	1d	1	0.27mi
220 Dartmouth Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	23d	1	0.36mi
507 Lisbon Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.24	43d	1	0.38mi
140 Parkridge Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	990	$1,500	$1.52	43d	1	0.62mi
92 Lasalle Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,150	$1.15	43d	1	0.93mi
89 Lasalle Ave Buffalo, NY	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1024	$2,291	$2.24	1d	10	0.96mi
190 Manhattan Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	724	$1,200	$1.66	43d	1	0.99mi
17 Proctor Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	43d	1	1.01mi
40 Lisbon Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1057	$1,500	$1.42	11d	1	1.01mi
2939 Main St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	562	$1,999	$3.55	3d	1	1.06mi
26 Custer St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	43d	1	1.12mi
160 Courtland Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	810	$1,025	$1.27	14d	1	1.15mi
90 Sussex St Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	43d	1	1.23mi
103 Preston Rd Unit Lower Cheektowaga, NY	2.0	1.0	882	$1,300	$1.47	3d	1	1.28mi
249 Newburgh Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	930	$1,300	$1.40	43d	1	1.34mi
61 Courtland Ave Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	43d	1	1.37mi
2 Angle St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	725	$1,212	$1.67	14d	2	1.41mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-06
   listed $80,000 Active
4. 2026-02-09
   listed $119,888 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $230 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $791 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$561/yr (+$47/mo · 244.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,794
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$230
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,344
• − Management: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $6,669
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,601
• After-tax cash flow: $6,003/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 42,524
• Household income: $44,955
• Rent vs Own: 50.0% rent · 50.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2873.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 67% White 15% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.29%
• Current HPI: 295.2966
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-33.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-15 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $80,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $119,888 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $230 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.