106 Gandy St · Lipan, TX 76462

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1950 1,307 sqft lot Est $180k · 16% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Small and inviting!!! Yard with a minimum upkeep. Metal work Shop or storage building. Fenced in back yard. FAMILY???? Lipan ISD has a rich history of academic and extracurricular success for PK. KG 1-12.

Key facts

• 1,307 sq ft lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 14 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family house; Living area about 1,032 square feet
• Exterior features: Lot about 1,307 sq ft

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $151 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 0.4% in Lipan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#974 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety D+, employment D.
• Lipan ISD (rural): math 46% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #211 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,000 (6.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.31%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,568
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
244 S Caddo St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,146 (+11%)	0mo	$199,000	$174	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $91,263
• Equity at exit: $135,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.22×
• Total profit: $261,150
• Equity at exit: $291,417

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76462

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,274/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,209

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
129 Sears St Lipan, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	3d	1	0.48mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    remarks 101-char remark
11. 2026-06-04
    listed $150,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,274 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,471/yr (+$123/mo · 115.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,274
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,344
• − Management: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$678
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$163
• After-tax cash flow: $1,971/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lipan ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827630
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $56,744
• Composite: 40.94/100
• National rank: #3608
• State rank: #211 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lipan

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #974
• US rank: #17249

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lipan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,920

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 20.20%
• Current HPI: 347.1688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+200.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $150,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2021-07-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-07-22 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-05-18 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-05-18 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2021-02-28 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-02-02 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2020-09-15 Listed $79,990 NTREIS
• 2016-03-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-03-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-03-28 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2012-02-24 Pending — NTREIS
• 2011-09-28 Listed $50,000 NTREIS
• 1999-10-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-09-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-12-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-12-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-09-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1974-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,274 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.