425 Aurora Cir · Gluckstadt, MS 39046

$338,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,824 sqft · SingleFamily · 368 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 0.50 ac lot $185/sqft · 8% below area Est $367k · 8% under $71/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This wonderful 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is an open and inviting floor plan. Large kitchen island with plenty of storage, office nook with plenty of storage, pantry, cubby area of garage, very spacious laundry room with primary closet access, spacious primary bedroom with spacious bath with 2 vanities with knee space sitting, tile shower, covered back patio and great level private backyard.

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Pantry
• Covered back patio

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• OFFICE NOOK
• PANTRY
• SPACIOUS LAUNDRY ROOM
• PRIMARY CLOSET ACCESS
• COVERED BACK PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $338k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-271 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $299k (11.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madison Crossing Elementary (math 52% / reading 55%, grade C, #49 of 375 statewide, top 13%, 775 students, 100% FRL); Germantown Middle School (math 55% / reading 58%, grade B, #14 of 179 statewide, top 7%, 1,008 students, 100% FRL); Germantown High School (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #59 of 197 statewide, top 30%, 1,396 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 29% district-wide (70 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 368 days — a 12% lower offer ($297k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $270,421 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 368 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.43%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $366,800
• List price: $338,000
• Delta: -7.85%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
440 Aurora Cir	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,823 (-0%)	1mo	$364,600	$200	98
408 Aurora Cir	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,860 (+2%)	1mo	$346,000	$186	92
465 Aurora Cir	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,870 (+2%)	1mo	$349,500	$187	91
200 Azure Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,828 (+0%)	1mo	$339,000	$185	87
509 Portner Way	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,855 (+2%)	1mo	$359,900	$194	76
443 Baleigh Way	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,875 (+3%)	1mo	$365,600	$195	72
302 Mandy Way	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,891 (+4%)	1mo	$369,900	$196	70
125 Western Ridge Cir	0.41mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,893 (+4%)	1mo	$339,900	$180	66
214 Buttonwood Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,603 (-12%)	1mo	$305,000	$190	52
125 Rhodes Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,625 (-11%)	1mo	$287,500	$177	49
644 Peregan St	0.40mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,066 (+13%)	1mo	$375,000	$182	49
701 Summerfield Dr	0.45mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,054 (+13%)	1mo	$373,000	$182	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-71,915
• Equity at exit: $50,397

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-84,465
• Equity at exit: $29,224

Cash invested: $94,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39046

• Home prices YoY: -30.1%
• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,704 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,773
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$422 /mo · $5,070/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$568
• Net cashflow: $-271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,047

Max offer price $298,856

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-37	-5% $-154	+0% $-271	+5% $-387	+10% $-504
Rent	-10% $-484	-5% $-377	+0% $-271	+5% $-164	+10% $-57
Rate	-1.0pp $-100	-0.5pp $-185	base $-271	+0.5pp $-358	+1.0pp $-447

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,500
• Closing costs: $10,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
231 Buttonwood Ln Canton, MS	3.0	2.0	1593	$2,700	$1.69	23d	1	0.73mi
317 Willow Way Canton, MS	3.0	3.0	1700	$2,800	$1.65	45d	1	0.76mi
502 Black Cherry CV Canton, MS	3.0	2.0	1887	$2,600	$1.38	15d	1	0.89mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 390-char remark

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   This wonderful 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is an open and inviting floor plan. Large kitchen island with plenty of storage, office nook with plenty of storage, pantry, cubby area of garage, very spacious laundry room with primary closet access, spacious primary bedroom with spacious bath with 2 vanities with knee space sitting, tile shower, covered back patio and great level private backyard.

2. 2026-05-09
   status Active 390-char remark

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   This wonderful 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is an open and inviting floor plan. Large kitchen island with plenty of storage, office nook with plenty of storage, pantry, cubby area of garage, very spacious laundry room with primary closet access, spacious primary bedroom with spacious bath with 2 vanities with knee space sitting, tile shower, covered back patio and great level private backyard.

3. 2026-05-08
   historical 390-char remark

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   This wonderful 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is an open and inviting floor plan. Large kitchen island with plenty of storage, office nook with plenty of storage, pantry, cubby area of garage, very spacious laundry room with primary closet access, spacious primary bedroom with spacious bath with 2 vanities with knee space sitting, tile shower, covered back patio and great level private backyard.

4. 2026-04-10
   price $338,000 390-char remark

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   This wonderful 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is an open and inviting floor plan. Large kitchen island with plenty of storage, office nook with plenty of storage, pantry, cubby area of garage, very spacious laundry room with primary closet access, spacious primary bedroom with spacious bath with 2 vanities with knee space sitting, tile shower, covered back patio and great level private backyard.

5. 2026-02-03
   price $345,600 390-char remark

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   This wonderful 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is an open and inviting floor plan. Large kitchen island with plenty of storage, office nook with plenty of storage, pantry, cubby area of garage, very spacious laundry room with primary closet access, spacious primary bedroom with spacious bath with 2 vanities with knee space sitting, tile shower, covered back patio and great level private backyard.

6. 2025-05-08
   listed $355,600 Active 390-char remark

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   This wonderful 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is an open and inviting floor plan. Large kitchen island with plenty of storage, office nook with plenty of storage, pantry, cubby area of garage, very spacious laundry room with primary closet access, spacious primary bedroom with spacious bath with 2 vanities with knee space sitting, tile shower, covered back patio and great level private backyard.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,451
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,933
• − Property taxes: −$5,070
• − Insurance: −$1,690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,596
• − Management: −$2,596
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$9,833
• Taxable loss: −$9,120
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,189
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,058/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready home features a modern kitchen, spacious bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. Minor updates like fresh paint and smart home automation can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Install smart home automation — Modernizes home and adds value
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home automation — Modernizes home and adds value ↑
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,579
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2188
• State rank: #3 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gluckstadt

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 29,160

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 63% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.50%
• Current HPI: 154.0441
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-4.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-05-09 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-05-08 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $338,000 MLSU
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $345,600 MLSU
• 2025-05-08 Listed $355,600 MLSU