6525 Blue Water Ct · Pecan Plantation, TX 76049

$169,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1998 6,852 sqft lot $139/sqft · 13% below area Est $194k · 13% under $18/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

STEPS away from Lake Granbury! Remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home on TWO adjoining lots in the Blue Water Shores community. This home features new carpet and flooring, fresh interior and exterior paint, updated cabinetry and countertops, newer fixtures, and a refreshed bathroom. The exterior HVAC unit is brand new, and additional updates include new skirting and overall exterior improvements throughout. A small storage building with electricity provides extra convenience and functionality on the property. The home sits only four houses down from the neighborhood boat dock, making lake access a breeze. Property includes both 6523 and 6525 Blue Water Court, offering versatile outdoor space for entertaining, gardening, or creating your own lakeside retreat. Blue Water Shores provides lake access, a relaxed community feel, and close proximity to Granbury’s historic downtown square with local dining, boutique shopping, and popular community events. Could be a wonderful full-time home, weekend getaway, or even an investment opportunity as a rental—location, location, location!

Key facts

• Brand new hvac unit
• Newer fixtures
• Refreshed bathroom

Tags

• REMODELED MANUFACTURED HOME
• NEW CARPET AND FLOORING
• NEWER FIXTURES
• REFRESHED BATHROOM
• BRAND NEW HVAC UNIT
• NEW SKIRTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $482 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $159k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 2.3% in Pecan Plantation — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#362 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 690 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,860 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.23%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $193,902
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: -12.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6631 Dayla Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	2mo	$129,900	$107	91
6724 Timberhaven Ct	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	14mo	$194,500	$160	80
6628 Ashley Ct	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-11%)	5mo	$119,000	$110	67
4640 Lyndi Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+12%)	3mo	$175,000	$128	65
6624 Dayla Ct	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-13%)	10mo	$100,000	$95	57
4648 Lyndi Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,064 (-12%)	20mo	$145,000	$136	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $7,735
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $65,203
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76049

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 690
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,962 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,112/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$18
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $482

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,351

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6505 Christa Ct Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1368	$2,700	$1.97	43d	1	0.20mi
6521 Six J Ct Granbury, TX	2.0	1.0	816	$1,350	$1.65	24d	1	0.21mi
4938 Blue Water Cir Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1020	$1,700	$1.67	43d	1	0.34mi
4938 Blue Water Cir Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1020	$1,650	$1.62	16d	1	0.34mi
3712 Mandy Dr Unit 1 Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	1112	$1,300	$1.17	18d	1	1.01mi
3712 Mandy Dr Unit 2 Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	1158	$1,300	$1.12	22d	1	1.01mi
3705 Mandy Dr #2 Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	1158	$1,400	$1.21	24d	1	1.07mi
3612 Mandy Dr Granbury, TX	2.0	1.0	784	$1,200	$1.53	22d	1	1.14mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $18 · $216/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,000 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $169,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-04-25
    price $169,000 1110-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1110 chars)

    STEPS away from Lake Granbury! Remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home on TWO adjoining lots in the Blue Water Shores community. This home features new carpet and flooring, fresh interior and exterior paint, updated cabinetry and countertops, newer fixtures, and a refreshed bathroom. The exterior HVAC unit is brand new, and additional updates include new skirting and overall exterior improvements throughout. A small storage building with electricity provides extra convenience and functionality on the property. The home sits only four houses down from the neighborhood boat dock, making lake access a breeze. Property includes both 6523 and 6525 Blue Water Court, offering versatile outdoor space for entertaining, gardening, or creating your own lakeside retreat. Blue Water Shores provides lake access, a relaxed community feel, and close proximity to Granbury’s historic downtown square with local dining, boutique shopping, and popular community events. Could be a wonderful full-time home, weekend getaway, or even an investment opportunity as a rental—location, location, location!

15. 2026-03-19
    listed $174,000 Active 1110-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1110 chars)

    STEPS away from Lake Granbury! Remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home on TWO adjoining lots in the Blue Water Shores community. This home features new carpet and flooring, fresh interior and exterior paint, updated cabinetry and countertops, newer fixtures, and a refreshed bathroom. The exterior HVAC unit is brand new, and additional updates include new skirting and overall exterior improvements throughout. A small storage building with electricity provides extra convenience and functionality on the property. The home sits only four houses down from the neighborhood boat dock, making lake access a breeze. Property includes both 6523 and 6525 Blue Water Court, offering versatile outdoor space for entertaining, gardening, or creating your own lakeside retreat. Blue Water Shores provides lake access, a relaxed community feel, and close proximity to Granbury’s historic downtown square with local dining, boutique shopping, and popular community events. Could be a wonderful full-time home, weekend getaway, or even an investment opportunity as a rental—location, location, location!

16. 2025-10-21
    listed $175,000 Active
17. 2009-09-21
    soldstatus
18. 2009-09-14
    historical
19. 2009-08-17
    listed $32,900
20. 2004-04-13
    soldstatus
21. 2004-02-20
    soldstatus
22. 1984-05-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,112 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,093 · $258/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,981/yr (+$165/mo · 178.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,538
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$1,112
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,883
• − Management: −$1,883
• − HOA: −$216
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $3,216
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$772
• After-tax cash flow: $5,015/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pecan Plantation

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #362
• US rank: #7773

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,506
• Household income: $104,967
• Rent vs Own: 12.3% rent · 87.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.09%
• Current HPI: 273.1293
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.20%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+413.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $169,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $174,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-21 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2009-09-21 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2009-09-14 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2009-08-17 Listed $32,900 NTREIS
• 2004-04-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-02-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1984-05-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,112 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.