14 Bonnell St · Middletown, NY 10940

$439,990

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,586 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1900 9,720 sqft lot Est $489k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Great 2 family with separate utilities, corner lot. Features hardwood floors, huge apartments, 2 driveways. Great investment properties, make good $$$$

Key facts

• Structurally solid
• Two family home
• Private side parking

Tags

• TWO FAMILY HOME
• STRONG RENTAL INCOME
• PRIVATE SIDE PARKING
• STRUCTURALLY SOLID
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• EASY ACCESS TO DINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $440k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $390 ($5k/yr) — positive. Per door: $195/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $440k).
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.3% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#79 in NY, #1,219 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute C-, schools D+.
• Middletown City School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #411 of 590 in NY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 273 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,531/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($87k/yr) (locally 1846% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $123k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $263k; list at $440k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $439,990

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.80%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $488,754
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2 Mountain Ave	0.26mi	5/2.0	2,447 (-5%)	7mo	$445,000	$182	73
26 Linden Ave #24	0.52mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,784 (+8%)	11mo	$525,000	$189	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-22,375
• Equity at exit: $65,604

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $122,108
• Equity at exit: $38,042

Cash invested: $123,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10940

• Home prices YoY: -18.7%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 16.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,531 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax from tax record: −$699 /mo · $8,390/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$952
• Net cashflow: $390

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,038

Max offer price $439,990

Occupancy floor 86%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$4,532
Total (2 units)			$4,531

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,998
• Closing costs: $13,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
128 W Main St Unit 1 Middletown, NY	5.0	3.5	2350	$3,500	$1.49	43d	1	0.21mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-22
   listed $439,990 Active
3. 2007-06-07
   soldstatus $262,900
4. 2007-06-01
   soldstatus $255,000 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   Great 2 family with separate utilities, corner lot. Features hardwood floors, huge apartments, 2 driveways. Great investment properties, make good $$$$

5. 2007-05-08
   price $269,900 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   Great 2 family with separate utilities, corner lot. Features hardwood floors, huge apartments, 2 driveways. Great investment properties, make good $$$$

6. 2007-05-08
   historical 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   Great 2 family with separate utilities, corner lot. Features hardwood floors, huge apartments, 2 driveways. Great investment properties, make good $$$$

7. 2007-04-13
   listed $255,000 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   Great 2 family with separate utilities, corner lot. Features hardwood floors, huge apartments, 2 driveways. Great investment properties, make good $$$$

8. 2005-09-02
   soldstatus $190,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,390 · $699/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,390 · $699/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,372
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,646
• − Property taxes: −$8,390
• − Insurance: −$2,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,350
• − Management: −$4,350
• − Depreciation: −$12,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,363
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$567
• After-tax cash flow: $5,243/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3619320
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 19.00%
• Median HH income: $54,612
• Composite: 41.52/100
• National rank: #3453
• State rank: #411 of 590 in NY

Livability — Middletown

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #1219

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute C- Cost of living C Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middletown, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• City population: 68,033
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 53,611
• Household income: $87,080
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1846.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 20% Two or more races 13% Asian 4% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 13% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.68%
• Current HPI: 311.5969
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.23%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+131.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-22 Listed $439,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $262,900 Public Records
• 2007-06-01 Sold (MLS) $255,000 HGMLS
• 2007-05-08 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2007-05-08 Price Changed $269,900 HGMLS
• 2007-04-13 Listed $255,000 HGMLS
• 2005-09-02 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,390 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.