3148 NW Kinyon Ave · Lawton, OK 73505

$95,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 249 Days on market

Built 1954 Est $65k · 47% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wow! Great redo! come see this beauty! Everything new! Check out those new windows! It' like living in a new house! Heat/AC appliances flooring paint baths and more - 3 nice sized bedrooms bath and garage huge fenced in backyard with TREES in front and back! Storm cellar dog pens and more and it cost less than rent - and you get soooo much more! For more info - call or text Sue Cabelka 580 591-3362

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Pecan tree
• Recently remodeled

Tags

• RECENTLY REMODELED
• STORM SHELTER
• FENCED IN BACK YARD
• PECAN TREE
• COVERED FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1 total parking space; 1 covered space; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available; Electric service
• Home design: Single family residence; Single story; Updated/remodeled
• Construction: Composition roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Storm door(s); Chain link fencing; Wood fencing; Composition roof; Public maintained road; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 79 x 88 x 86 x 125; R-1 single family zoning

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range hood; Disposal
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s); Electric cooling
• Interior features: Double pane windows; Window coverings; Disposal; Gas water heater; Oven; Range hood; Vinyl flooring; No fireplace; Crawl space
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $382 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 6.1% in Lawton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#206 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, commute F.
• Lawton (urban): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 270 in OK (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Central Ms (math 17% / reading 24%, grade F, #153 of 345 statewide, top 45%, 994 students, 0% FRL); Lawton Hs (math 16% / reading 21%, grade F, #302 of 447 statewide, top 68%, 1,417 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 398 active listings in the ZIP; 133 units permitted in Comanche County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comanche County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.1% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 249 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 249 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.25%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $64,512
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2915 NW Euclid	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-1%)	0mo	$131,000	$131	76
3138 NW Kinyon Ave	0.06mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (+9%)	3mo	$70,000	$64	75
1419 NW 23rd St	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-1%)	4mo	$19,900	$20	64
2614 NW Bell Ave	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,000 (-1%)	2mo	$54,500	$55	64
602 NW 31st St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+9%)	8mo	$67,000	$61	55
3823 NW Meadowbrook Dr	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,100 (+9%)	6mo	$68,000	$62	54
3505 NW Lincoln Ave	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-1%)	13mo	$60,000	$60	53
1633 NW 26th St	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+9%)	11mo	$73,500	$67	48
409 NW 30th St	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (+9%)	9mo	$70,000	$64	47
2704 NW Arlington	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+9%)	9mo	$129,900	$118	44
1521 NW 43rd St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+9%)	8mo	$137,500	$125	41
3428 NW Lincoln Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0	900 (-11%)	9mo	$68,500	$76	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $11,623
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $52,912
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73505

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 398
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,224 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $562/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $382

Break-even live

Break-even rent $740

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $436	-5% $409	+0% $382	+5% $355	+10% $329
Rent	-10% $286	-5% $334	+0% $382	+5% $431	+10% $479
Rate	-1.0pp $430	-0.5pp $406	base $382	+0.5pp $358	+1.0pp $333

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-07
   soldstatus $100,000
3. 2025-10-07
   historical Active Under Contract
4. 2025-09-10
   listed $95,000 Active
5. 2023-01-08
   soldstatus $74,000 441-char remark

   Show marketing remark (441 chars)

   Wow! Great redo! come see this beauty! Everything new! Check out those new windows! It' like living in a new house! Heat/AC appliances flooring paint baths and more - 3 nice sized bedrooms bath and garage huge fenced in backyard with TREES in front and back! Storm cellar dog pens and more and it cost less than rent - and you get soooo much more! For more info - call or text Sue Cabelka 580 591-3362

6. 2023-01-06
   soldstatus $74,000
7. 2022-10-18
   listed $76,000 441-char remark

   Show marketing remark (441 chars)

   Wow! Great redo! come see this beauty! Everything new! Check out those new windows! It' like living in a new house! Heat/AC appliances flooring paint baths and more - 3 nice sized bedrooms bath and garage huge fenced in backyard with TREES in front and back! Storm cellar dog pens and more and it cost less than rent - and you get soooo much more! For more info - call or text Sue Cabelka 580 591-3362

8. 2017-07-11
   soldstatus $12,000 39-char remark

   Show marketing remark (39 chars)

   As Is - No Repair. Investment property.

9. 2017-06-07
   listed $16,200 39-char remark

   Show marketing remark (39 chars)

   As Is - No Repair. Investment property.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $562 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $855 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: +$293/yr (+$24/mo · 52.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,688
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$562
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,175
• − Management: −$1,175
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $3,216
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$772
• After-tax cash flow: $3,816/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawton
• NCES district ID: 4017250
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,618
• Composite: 19.68/100
• National rank: #8732
• State rank: #137 of 270 in OK

Livability — Lawton

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #15131

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lawton, OK
• County: Comanche County · 96,361 people
• City population: 89,233
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• Population (ZIP): 47,790
• Household income: $58,272
• Rent vs Own: 48.2% rent · 51.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1986.0

Population outlook (Comanche County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 124,518 people
• By 2030: 124,231 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 122,193 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 120,368 · -3.3%
• By 2075: 120,492 · -3.2%
• By 2100: 123,113 · -1.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 17% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 16% Native American 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comanche

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.3) · D 37.4% · R 60.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: -17.5pp · 2024: -23.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.3 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.88%
• Current HPI: 169.4524
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.14%
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+517.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — LBRMLS
• 2025-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2025-10-07 Contingent — LBRMLS
• 2025-09-10 Listed $95,000 LBRMLS
• 2023-01-08 Sold (MLS) $74,000 LBRMLS
• 2023-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-18 Listed $76,000 LBRMLS
• 2017-07-11 Sold (MLS) $12,000 LBRMLS
• 2017-06-07 Listed $16,200 LBRMLS

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $562 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.