121 S Smith St · Holly Ridge, NC 28445

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 952 sqft · Manufactured public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1996 7,405 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nicely landscaped. Screened in front porch. Gravel drive. W/D hook-ups. Cable ready. Skylight in master bath. Ceiling fan and cathedral ceiling in living room. Walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Built 1996
• Listed 11 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $85 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 3.0% in Holly Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#78 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Onslow County Schools (other): math 42% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #84 of 178 in NC (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Coastal Elementary (822 students, 31% FRL); Dixon Middle (math 49% / reading 53%, grade C, #106 of 475 statewide, top 22%, 948 students, 39% FRL); Dixon High (math 62% / reading 72%, grade B, #142 of 535 statewide, top 28%, 1,149 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 59% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Onslow County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 458 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,246 units permitted in Onslow County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $125k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.52%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-13,819
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-757
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28445

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 458
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,576 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $315/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,469

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $155	-5% $120	+0% $85	+5% $49	+10% $14
Rent	-10% $-40	-5% $22	+0% $85	+5% $147	+10% $209
Rate	-1.0pp $148	-0.5pp $116	base $85	+0.5pp $52	+1.0pp $19

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1001 Victory Lap Ln Holly Ridge, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$1,700	$1.66	15d	18	0.94mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $125,000 Active
2. 2011-03-25
   soldstatus $80,000
3. 2008-09-18
   soldstatus $62,000
4. 2005-08-15
   soldstatus $52,500
5. 2005-08-12
   soldstatus $52,500 175-char remark

   Show marketing remark (175 chars)

   Nicely landscaped. Screened in front porch. Gravel drive. W/D hook-ups. Cable ready. Skylight in master bath. Ceiling fan and cathedral ceiling in living room. Walk-in closet.

6. 2003-11-12
   listed $59,900 175-char remark

   Show marketing remark (175 chars)

   Nicely landscaped. Screened in front porch. Gravel drive. W/D hook-ups. Cable ready. Skylight in master bath. Ceiling fan and cathedral ceiling in living room. Walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $315 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,025 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$710/yr (+$59/mo · 225.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,910
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$315
• − Insurance: −$5,744
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,513
• − Management: −$1,513
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$812
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$195
• After-tax cash flow: $1,210/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onslow County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703450
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,076
• Composite: 38.66/100
• National rank: #4148
• State rank: #84 of 178 in NC

Livability — Holly Ridge

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #5549

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holly Ridge, NC
• County: Onslow County · 164,453 people
• City population: 10,797
• Metro: Jacksonville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 10,797
• Household income: $84,016
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 131.0

Population outlook (Onslow County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,789 people
• By 2030: 194,463 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 193,629 · +2.0%
• By 2050: 193,248 · +1.8%
• By 2075: 196,995 · +3.8%
• By 2100: 201,513 · +6.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Serbian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Onslow

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 31.5% · R 67.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.5pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+34.6 2012: R+27.0 2008: R+21.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -291.92%
• Current HPI: 193.9949
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.53%
• Metro: Jacksonville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+108.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $125,000 Hive MLS
• 2011-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2008-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records
• 2005-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $52,500 Public Records
• 2005-08-12 Sold (MLS) $52,500 Hive MLS
• 2003-11-12 Listed $59,900 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $315 · -33.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.