656 NE Lake Dr · Lake City, FL 32055

$159,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,243 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 148 Days on market

Built 1943 0.30 ac lot Est $155k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

LAKE CITY – 1943 Cracker-Style Home | 3BR / 1BA | 1,243 Sq Ft (Heated & Cooled). Offering spacious living and vintage interior details throughout. Floor plan includes three bedrooms, a living room, dining room, family room, and a dedicated laundry room. A must-see property to truly appreciate its unique character and warmth. Situated on two city lots with paved road frontage, this home is conveniently located just a few blocks from Duval Street, Lake DeSoto, and historic Main Street in Lake City. The property sits on high and dry ground, adding peace of mind and long-term value.

Key facts

• Paved road frontage
• High and dry ground
• Conveniently located

Tags

• VINTAGE INTERIOR DETAILS
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• PAVED ROAD FRONTAGE
• HIGH AND DRY GROUND
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; Residential property
• Construction: Wood siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Refrigerator included; Total of 6 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $229 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.7% in Lake City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#304 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $159k implies a 127% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.16%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $155,375
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
823 NE Elsey Pl	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,236 (-1%)	5mo	$265,000	$214	83
849 NE Maple Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,180 (-5%)	1mo	$95,000	$81	76
1047 SE Putnam St	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,256 (+1%)	3mo	$76,500	$61	68
211 NE Bradley Ter	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,136 (-9%)	3mo	$125,000	$110	62
384 S Marion Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,314 (+6%)	1mo	$148,000	$113	59
319 SE Avalon Ave	0.29mi	3/3.0	1,344 (+8%)	8mo	$174,400	$130	58
268 NE Anderson Ter	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+14%)	6mo	$125,000	$88	57
649 NE Bailey St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,209 (-3%)	4mo	$285,000	$236	57
246 SE Lochlynn Ter	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,340 (+8%)	6mo	$259,000	$193	48
627 NE Washington St	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,058 (-15%)	6mo	$132,000	$125	45
492 SE Lomond Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,390 (+12%)	6mo	$112,500	$81	44
738 NE Colorado Ter	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,388 (+12%)	5mo	$181,770	$131	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.27×
• Total profit: $101,108
• Equity at exit: $143,240

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.43×
• Total profit: $286,193
• Equity at exit: $308,902

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32055

• Home prices YoY: 24.1%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,529 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $950/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,240

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,000 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,000 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 143 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,000 Active 142 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $159,000 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $159,000 Active 138 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $159,000 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $159,000 Active 136 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,000 Active 134 DOM
12. 2026-03-13
    price $159,000
13. 2026-02-28
    price $1,500
14. 2026-02-27
    price $164,900
15. 2026-02-13
    price $169,000
16. 2026-02-13
    price $1,600
17. 2026-01-16
    listed $177,700 Active
18. 2025-12-15
    listed $1,700
19. 2019-10-01
    soldstatus $70,000
20. 1998-11-25
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $950 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,320 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$369/yr (+$31/mo · 38.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,348
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$950
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,468
• − Management: −$1,468
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $135
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$32
• After-tax cash flow: $2,711/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia
• NCES district ID: 1200360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,053
• Composite: 44.74/100
• National rank: #2750
• State rank: #25 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #5154

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake City, FL
• County: Columbia County · 40,507 people
• City population: 40,507
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,559
• Household income: $61,111
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 391.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,129 people
• By 2030: 67,501 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 65,465 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 63,058 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 56,291 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 45,243 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 29% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 67.79%
• Current HPI: 348.8923
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+695.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $159,000 DGLMLS
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $1,500 DGLMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $164,900 DGLMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $169,000 DGLMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $1,600 DGLMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $177,700 DGLMLS
• 2025-12-15 Listed for Rent $1,700 DGLMLS
• 2019-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 1998-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $950 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.