90 Sugar Bear Dr #53 · Safety Harbor, FL 34695

$108,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 864 sqft · Manufactured public records · 145 Days on market

Built 1982 4,796 sqft lot Est $125k · 14% under $235/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

No rear neighbors. This home is located on a creek and also has a treed view. There is a lot of land between this home and the one next door. The deeded lot is 70X68 which is included in the price. You may have a cat or a dog up to 25 pounds. The central heat and air is two years old. It has laminate floors that are 4 years old. This furnished two bedroom two bath Jacobsen home has a deck in the back to enjoy the view. The maintenance fee for this 55+ home is $235/month and includes water, sewer, trash, lawn, private roads, clubhouse, heated pool & spa, shuffleboard, and a laundry room in case your appliances break. Room measurements approximate.

Key facts

• Treed view
• No rear neighbors
• Creek view

Tags

• NO REAR NEIGHBORS
• CREEK VIEW
• TREED VIEW
• DECK IN THE BACK
• MAINTENANCE FEE INCLUDES WATER
• MAINTENANCE FEE INCLUDES SEWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly condo/association fee $235; Total annual fees $2,820; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Association-owned recreation areas; Clubhouse; Pool (heated, in-ground) and spa/hot tub (heated, in-ground); Shuffleboard court; Recreation facilities; Laundry in association; Association requires approval; Pets allowed (cats and dogs); Golf carts allowed; Buyer approval required; Association fee includes pool, grounds maintenance, management, private road, recreational facilities, sewer, trash and water; Monthly association fee $235

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Underground utilities
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home (Jacobsen model); One story; Faces west
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Built on crawlspace
• Exterior features: Front porch; Private mailbox; Street dead-end lot; Paved, private-maintained road; Private creek access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Ice maker; Electric water heater; Water softener
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Crawlspace foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $108k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $63 ($753/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $108k).
• Recommended offer: $95k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 2.7% in Safety Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#8 in FL, #296 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Curlew Creek Elementary School (math 67% / reading 63%, grade B+, #514 of 2,144 statewide, top 24%, 634 students, 43% FRL); Safety Harbor Middle School (math 45% / reading 43%, grade D, #327 of 571 statewide, top 57%, 974 students, 50% FRL); Countryside High School (math 25% / reading 45%, grade F, #379 of 667 statewide, top 58%, 1,741 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 171 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $747 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.3% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $108k implies a 1037% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.42%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $125,280
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33 New Fawn Ct #23	0.14mi	2/2.0	864 (0%)	8mo	$125,000	$145	87

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-4,499
• Equity at exit: $16,103

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $41,460
• Equity at exit: $9,338

Cash invested: $30,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34695

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Rents YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 171
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,879 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$566
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,783/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$235
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,799

Max offer price $108,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $124	-5% $93	+0% $63	+5% $32	+10% $2
Rent	-10% $-86	-5% $-11	+0% $63	+5% $137	+10% $211
Rate	-1.0pp $117	-0.5pp $90	base $63	+0.5pp $35	+1.0pp $6

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,000
• Closing costs: $3,240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
36 Magnolia Ct #4 Safety Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	19d	1	0.37mi
116 Dolphin Dr S Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1090	$2,495	$2.29	0d	1	0.48mi
225 Tarpon Ln Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,400	$2.14	6d	1	0.51mi
86 Pelican Dr N Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	26d	1	0.61mi
1 Pelican Dr N Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$2,000	$2.08	12d	1	0.61mi
2955 Bay View Dr Safety Harbor, FL	2.0	1.0	1047	$2,150	$2.05	26d	1	0.92mi
3640 Meriden Ave Unit 3 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	1.0	980	$1,575	$1.61	14d	1	0.95mi
2941 Shore Dr Safety Harbor, FL	2.0	1.0	1055	$1,825	$1.73	6d	1	0.98mi
3664 Meriden Ave Unit A Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	970	$1,795	$1.85	26d	1	1.00mi
3141 Huron Ave Unit B Oldsmar, FL	3.0	2.0	1089	$1,875	$1.72	26d	1	1.06mi
3455 Countryside Blvd #4 Clearwater, FL	3.0	2.0	995	$2,050	$2.06	6d	1	1.07mi
108 Nina Way #3 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,695	$1.55	26d	1	1.12mi
161 Lakeside Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$2,000	$1.83	19d	1	1.13mi
107 Windward Pl Unit 107 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	879	$2,000	$2.28	19d	1	1.19mi
414 Meadow Ln Oldsmar, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,450	$2.07	26d	1	1.23mi
47 Emerald Bay Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,750	$1.59	25d	1	1.23mi
114 Meadow Ln #114 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	879	$1,700	$1.93	26d	1	1.26mi
100 Old Village Way Oldsmar, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1070	$1,475	$1.38	3d	9	1.26mi
122 Caryl Way Bldg 1 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,850	$1.69	26d	1	1.28mi
218 Caryl Way Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,740	$1.59	14d	1	1.29mi
3590 Magnolia Ridge Cir Unit G Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1090	$1,695	$1.56	26d	1	1.30mi
109 Nancy Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,750	$1.60	4d	1	1.30mi
109 Nancy Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,750	$1.60	18d	1	1.30mi
3583 Whispering Oaks Ln Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1124	$1,800	$1.60	26d	1	1.34mi
133 Sabal Ct Unit B Oldsmar, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	16d	1	1.44mi
284 Woodlake Wynde Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	924	$2,000	$2.16	26d	1	1.44mi
133 Sabal Ct Oldsmar, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	957	$1,495	$1.56	26d	2	1.44mi
270 Woodlake Wynde #270 Oldsmar, FL	1.0	1.0	674	$1,625	$2.41	26d	1	1.44mi
336 Woodlake Wynde Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	924	$2,000	$2.16	19d	1	1.44mi
207 Palmetto Ct Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,700	$1.61	26d	1	1.46mi
103 Palmetto Ct #103 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,800	$1.71	26d	1	1.46mi
109 Pine Ct Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$2,300	$2.18	26d	1	1.46mi
131 Sabal Ct Unit H Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	915	$1,400	$1.53	6d	1	1.48mi
2998 Bonaventure Cir #104 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,723	$1.91	0d	1	1.50mi
207 Woodlake Wynde Unit 207 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	924	$1,900	$2.06	0d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $235 · $2,820/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashpool

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $108,000 Active 145 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $108,000 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $108,000 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $108,000 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $108,000 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $108,000 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $108,000 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $108,000 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $108,000 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $108,000 Active 128 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $108,000 Active 127 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $108,000 Active 125 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $108,000 Active 124 DOM
14. 2026-04-24
    price $114,000
15. 2026-04-12
    price $125,000
16. 2026-03-11
    price $129,000
17. 2026-01-27
    listed $135,000 Active
18. 2009-12-30
    historical
19. 2009-05-11
    listed $45,000
20. 1984-01-01
    soldstatus $9,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,783 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,783 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,545
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,050
• − Property taxes: −$1,783
• − Insurance: −$5,658
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,804
• − Management: −$1,804
• − HOA: −$2,820
• − Depreciation: −$3,142
• Taxable loss: −$515
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$124
• After-tax cash flow: $876/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Safety Harbor

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #296

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Safety Harbor, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 18,098
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,098
• Household income: $95,238
• Rent vs Own: 13.5% rent · 86.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 103.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 7% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.72%
• Current HPI: 335.0437
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.34%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1100.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $114,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-27 Listed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-12-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-05-11 Listed $45,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1984-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $9,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,783 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.