Newlin Plan · Mesquite, TX 75181

$266,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,522 sqft · SingleFamily · 96 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $266,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $312,873.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $267k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-223 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (8.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.4% in Mesquite — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#358 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools C-, crime F, commute F.
• Mesquite ISD (suburban): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #536 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 590 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($243k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $242,969 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.06%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $312,873
• List price: $266,999
• Delta: -14.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
129 Glenwood Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	3mo	$241,999	$159	66
108 Little Fox Way	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	0mo	$247,999	$163	66
107 Wren Way	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	2mo	$241,124	$158	64
110 Wren Way	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	4mo	$266,999	$175	63
116 Pecan Flats Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,461 (-4%)	0mo	$250,999	$172	58
118 Pecan Flats Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-5%)	0mo	$230,999	$159	58
134 Arbor Hills Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-5%)	4mo	$246,649	$170	55
107 Granite Falls Rd	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+13%)	1mo	$278,999	$162	39
112 Wren Way	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+13%)	2mo	$263,999	$153	39
131 Glenwood Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+13%)	5mo	$255,449	$149	38
108 Wren Way	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+13%)	6mo	$258,824	$150	35
111 Wren Way	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+13%)	5mo	$283,594	$165	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-71,902
• Equity at exit: $46,650

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-107,965
• Equity at exit: $27,052

Cash invested: $87,604 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75181

• Home prices YoY: -9.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 590
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,455 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,641
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$391 /mo · $4,693/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $-223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,737

Max offer price $280,589

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,218
• Closing costs: $9,386
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1332 Nimitz Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2109	$2,280	$1.08	20d	1	0.73mi
2004 Poppy Way Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,700	$1.72	43d	1	0.82mi
1309 Dawson Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1952	$2,222	$1.14	7d	1	0.82mi
2749 Ingram Cir Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1791	$2,119	$1.18	2d	1	0.98mi
2600 Waterloo Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,900	$1.30	43d	1	1.20mi
2805 Cameron Way Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1660	$2,150	$1.30	12d	1	1.20mi
815 Valleycreek Rd Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$2,500	$1.40	43d	1	1.24mi
222 Redwood St Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1132	$1,775	$1.57	43d	1	1.27mi
127 Woodhill St Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,950	$1.26	10d	1	1.28mi
2801 Sonora Ln Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1938	$2,245	$1.16	24d	1	1.31mi
2724 Windswept Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$2,300	$1.64	24d	1	1.35mi
2800 Crockett Pl Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1660	$1,895	$1.14	21d	1	1.35mi
4642 Elm Point Dr Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	2100	$2,199	$1.05	5d	1	1.46mi
1809 Osage Trl Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2022	$2,599	$1.29	17d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $266,999 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $266,999 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $266,999 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $266,999 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $266,999 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $266,999 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $266,999 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $266,999 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $266,999 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $266,999 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $266,999 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $266,999 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $266,999 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $266,999 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-03-14
    listed $266,999 Active 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,454
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,526
• − Property taxes: −$4,693
• − Insurance: −$1,564
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,356
• − Management: −$2,356
• − Depreciation: −$9,102
• Taxable loss: −$8,143
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,954
• After-tax cash flow: $-723/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-level home is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic improvements that could further enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesquite ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $49,372
• Composite: 29.06/100
• National rank: #6606
• State rank: #536 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mesquite

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #7743

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesquite, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 150,788
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,788
• Household income: $111,052
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 857.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 21% White 16% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.63%
• Current HPI: 257.0959
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.07%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Listed $266,999 Zillow