Newlin Plan · Mesquite, TX 75181

$266,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,522 sqft · SingleFamily · 239 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $266,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $310,605.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $267k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (3.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.4% in Mesquite — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#358 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Mesquite ISD (suburban): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #536 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Achziger El (math 31% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,208 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 846 students, 75% FRL); Berry Middle (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #540 of 1,662 statewide, top 33%, 579 students, 76% FRL); Horn H S (math 41% / reading 36%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,029 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 858 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 87d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 239 days — a 12% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $234,959 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 239 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.50%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $310,605
• List price: $266,999
• Delta: -14.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
123 Glenwood Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	2mo	$262,999	$173	68
129 Glenwood Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	8mo	$241,999	$159	63
114 Wren Way	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	6mo	$256,999	$169	62
108 Little Fox Way	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	5mo	$247,999	$163	62
107 Wren Way	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	6mo	$241,124	$158	60
110 Wren Way	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	9mo	$266,999	$175	59
116 Pecan Flats Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,461 (-4%)	5mo	$250,999	$172	55
118 Pecan Flats Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-5%)	5mo	$230,999	$159	54
134 Arbor Hills Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-5%)	8mo	$246,649	$170	51
107 Granite Falls Rd	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+13%)	5mo	$278,999	$162	35
112 Wren Way	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+13%)	7mo	$263,999	$153	35
131 Glenwood Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+13%)	10mo	$255,449	$149	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-64,610
• Equity at exit: $46,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-93,618
• Equity at exit: $26,855

Cash invested: $86,970 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 46 active · 22 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.5 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $340,494 ($200/sqft)
• Median days on market: 155 d
• This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75181

• Home prices YoY: -9.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 858
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,579 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$388 /mo · $4,659/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $-109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,717

Max offer price $294,861

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $106	-5% $-1	+0% $-109	+5% $-216	+10% $-323
Rent	-10% $-313	-5% $-211	+0% $-109	+5% $-7	+10% $95
Rate	-1.0pp $48	-0.5pp $-30	base $-109	+0.5pp $-189	+1.0pp $-271

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,651
• Closing costs: $9,318
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1320 Junction Run Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1791	$2,395	$1.34	113d	1	0.73mi
1320 Junction Run Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1791	$2,450	$1.37	130d	1	0.73mi
1513 Lone Star Ct Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1791	$3,500	$1.95	10d	1	0.73mi
1332 Nimitz Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2109	$2,155	$1.02	50d	1	0.73mi
1424 Junction Run Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1389	$2,400	$1.73	10d	1	0.75mi
1424 Junction Run Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1389	$2,695	$1.94	87d	1	0.75mi
1424 Junction Run Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1389	$2,400	$1.73	19d	1	0.75mi
2004 Poppy Way Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,700	$1.72	184d	1	0.82mi
1309 Dawson Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1952	$2,225	$1.14	51d	1	0.82mi
1309 Dawson Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1952	$2,222	$1.14	148d	1	0.82mi
1229 Nimitz Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2075	$2,300	$1.11	128d	1	0.92mi
2749 Ingram Cir Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1791	$1,899	$1.06	117d	1	0.98mi
1045 Cavern Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1659	$2,095	$1.26	64d	1	1.02mi
140 Bowles Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,495	$1.23	10d	1	1.03mi
2616 Widgeon Way Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1619	$2,800	$1.73	27d	1	1.14mi
2616 Widgeon Way Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1619	$2,800	$1.73	10d	1	1.14mi
4212 Boxwood Dr Balch Springs, TX	4.0	2.0	2248	$2,125	$0.95	10d	1	1.15mi
808 Creekside Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1886	$2,200	$1.17	95d	1	1.16mi
824 Elm Falls Pl Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.5	2141	$1,950	$0.91	95d	1	1.17mi
2641 Windswept Ln Mesquite, TX	4.0	3.0	2192	$3,645	$1.66	10d	1	1.18mi
2528 Widgeon Way Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	2223	$2,609	$1.17	2d	1	1.20mi
2600 Waterloo Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,900	$1.30	184d	1	1.20mi
2805 Cameron Way Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1660	$2,095	$1.26	134d	1	1.20mi
2805 Cameron Way Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1660	$2,150	$1.30	153d	1	1.20mi
2508 Hawk Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1771	$2,200	$1.24	10d	1	1.22mi
2508 Hawk Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1771	$2,225	$1.26	75d	1	1.22mi
1813 Bette Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1548	$2,241	$1.45	78d	1	1.23mi
1633 Bette Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,800	$1.16	3d	1	1.23mi
815 Valleycreek Rd Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$2,500	$1.40	184d	1	1.24mi
2516 Buck Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1562	$2,850	$1.82	65d	1	1.25mi
222 Redwood St Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1132	$1,775	$1.57	184d	1	1.27mi
2008 Cheshire Ct Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	2003	$3,675	$1.83	130d	1	1.28mi
207 Redwood St Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,849	$1.53	84d	1	1.28mi
127 Woodhill St Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,950	$1.26	152d	1	1.28mi
206 Redwood St Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$3,500	$2.50	7d	1	1.30mi
706 Valleycreek Rd Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$2,225	$1.60	95d	1	1.31mi
2801 Sonora Ln Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1938	$2,245	$1.16	165d	1	1.31mi
216 Woodgrove St Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1153	$1,750	$1.52	91d	1	1.32mi
2724 Windswept Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$2,300	$1.64	165d	1	1.35mi
1816 Lemonwood Cir Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1178	$1,900	$1.61	10d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $266,999 Active 239 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $266,999 Active 238 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $266,999 Active 237 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $266,999 Active 236 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $266,999 Active 235 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $266,999 Active 233 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $266,999 Active 232 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $266,999 Active 231 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $266,999 Active 230 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $266,999 Active 229 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $266,999 Active 228 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $266,999 Active 227 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $266,999 Active 226 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $266,999 Active 225 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $266,999 Active 224 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $266,999 Active 223 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $266,999 Active 222 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $266,999 Active 221 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $266,999 Active 220 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $266,999 Active 219 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $266,999 Active 218 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $266,999 Active 217 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $266,999 Active 216 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $266,999 Active 215 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $266,999 Active 214 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $266,999 Active 213 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $266,999 Active 212 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $266,999 Active 211 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $266,999 Active 210 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $266,999 Active 209 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $266,999 Active 208 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $266,999 Active 207 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $266,999 Active 206 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $266,999 Active 205 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $266,999 Active 204 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $266,999 Active 203 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $266,999 Active 202 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $266,999 Active 201 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $266,999 Active 200 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $266,999 Active 199 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $266,999 Active 198 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $266,999 Active 197 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $266,999 Active 196 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $266,999 Active 195 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $266,999 Active 194 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $266,999 Active 193 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $266,999 Active 192 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $266,999 Active 191 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $266,999 Active 190 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $266,999 Active 189 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,953
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,399
• − Property taxes: −$4,659
• − Insurance: −$1,553
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,476
• − Management: −$2,476
• − Depreciation: −$9,036
• Taxable loss: −$6,646
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,595
• After-tax cash flow: $289/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,610–$22,830 screening

This single-level home is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic improvements that could further enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Achziger El F TX #2,208/4,322 Nat'l #24,614/41,679 Middle Dr Don Woolley Middle F TX #1,177/1,662 Nat'l #9,793/14,009 High Horn H S F TX #866/1,632 Nat'l #8,796/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesquite ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $49,372
• Composite: 29.06/100
• National rank: #6606
• State rank: #536 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Mesquite

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #7743

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesquite, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,979,839 people
• City population: 150,788
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,788
• Household income: $111,052
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 29% of renters

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Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 21% White 16% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.63%
• Current HPI: 257.0959
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.07%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Listed $266,999 Zillow