17114 153rd Ave SE #34 · Yelm, WA 98597

$84,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 162 Days on market

Built 1990 Est $144k · 41% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable living near beautiful Lake Lawrence! Newly updated with separated bedroom floor plan and central living area. New flooring, windows and appliances . New windows and wood stove on order -will be installed before closing. Carport with storage area. No age restrictions. Small pets under 25 lbs. ok. Ten minutes to Yelm and all amenities, and close to Lake Lawrence for all your recreational needs. Boating, water skiing, fishing and public boat launch!

Key facts

• Central living area
• Wood stove
• New flooring

Tags

• SEPARATED BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• CENTRAL LIVING AREA
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW WINDOWS
• WOOD STOVE
• CARPORT WITH STORAGE AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Calculated living area: 924 square feet
• Financial info: Land lease: $838 (monthly); Accepts Cash and Conventional financing
• HOA & community: Located in Lake Lawrence mobile home park (approximately 42 homes); Park amenities include common area and high-speed internet availability; Park approved for sale

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Power: PSE; Sewer: Septic; Electric service
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; Manufactured house, one level; Composition roof; Facing with a view
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Manufactured after 06/15/1976
• Exterior features: Wood products exterior; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 2 bathtubs; 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Electric energy source
• Interior features: Refrigerator; Stove/Range; Very good condition; Has view

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.9% vs local median 3.6% in Yelm — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#244 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Yelm School District (rural): math 48% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #108 of 291 in WA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 431 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.8% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $74,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.58%
• DSCR: 3.47
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $144,144
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17114 153rd Ave SE #24	0.00mi	2/2.0	920 (-0%)	22mo	$85,000	$92	81
17114 153rd Ave SE #28	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	990 (+7%)	21mo	$154,000	$156	66
15409 Westshore Dr SE	0.37mi	3/1.5 (+1)	896 (-3%)	10mo	$418,000	$467	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $62,157
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.13×
• Total profit: $169,562
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98597

• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 431
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,021 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$15 /mo · $175/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $1,101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $627

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,149	-5% $1,125	+0% $1,101	+5% $980	+10% $951
Rent	-10% $941	-5% $1,021	+0% $1,101	+5% $1,181	+10% $1,261
Rate	-1.0pp $1,144	-0.5pp $1,123	base $1,101	+0.5pp $1,079	+1.0pp $1,057

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,900 Active 162 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,900 Active 161 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,900 Active 160 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,900 Active 159 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $84,900 Active 157 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $84,900 Active 156 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $84,900 Active 154 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,900 Active 153 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,900 Active 152 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $84,900 Active 151 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $84,900 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,900 Active 145 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,900 Active 144 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $84,900 Active 143 DOM
15. 2026-04-21
    price $94,900
16. 2026-04-13
    price $99,900
17. 2026-04-07
    price $104,900
18. 2026-03-24
    price $109,000
19. 2026-03-09
    price $114,900
20. 2026-03-09
    price $115,000
21. 2026-01-06
    listed $119,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $175 · $15/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $832 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$657/yr (+$55/mo · 375.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$175
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,940
• − Management: −$1,940
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $12,543
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,010
• After-tax cash flow: $10,203/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yelm School District
• NCES district ID: 5310140
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $58,328
• Composite: 48.34/100
• National rank: #4685
• State rank: #108 of 291 in WA

Livability — Yelm

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #7737

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 26,669
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 26,669
• Household income: $92,219
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 259.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 3% Pacific Islander 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -192.07%
• Current HPI: 326.4361
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.78%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-20.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $94,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $99,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $104,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $109,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $114,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $115,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Listed $119,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $175 · -14.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.