13663 Kit Run · Splendora, TX 77372

$244,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,940 sqft · Land · 62 Days on market

Built 2026 4,800 sqft lot $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Lowry plan is a 2-story home with 4 bedrooms up, 2.5 baths, family room, and dining area. The kitchen offers plenty of counter space including a peninsula with space for seating.

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Covered patio
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• COVERED PATIO
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Principal Management Group; Annual association fee ($605); Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (under construction); Faces east; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Cement siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Fenced back yard; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Second level); Bedroom (Second level); Bedroom (Second level); Bedroom (Second level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric); Has heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Double vanity; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $203 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 5.2% in Splendora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 542 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $218,236 (10.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.56%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-26,823
• Equity at exit: $36,529

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-6,979
• Equity at exit: $21,182

Cash invested: $68,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 542
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,182 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,007/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,925

Max offer price $244,990

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,248
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,990 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,990 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,990 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,990 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $244,990 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $244,990 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $244,990 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $244,990 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $244,990 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $244,990 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $244,990 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $244,990 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,990 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,990 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-05-22
    status Active 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    The Lowry plan is a 2-story home with 4 bedrooms up, 2.5 baths, family room, and dining area. The kitchen offers plenty of counter space including a peninsula with space for seating.

16. 2026-05-21
    status Active
17. 2026-03-06
    status Pending
18. 2026-03-04
    historical 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    The Lowry plan is a 2-story home with 4 bedrooms up, 2.5 baths, family room, and dining area. The kitchen offers plenty of counter space including a peninsula with space for seating.

19. 2026-02-24
    status Active
20. 2026-02-20
    status Active 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    The Lowry plan is a 2-story home with 4 bedrooms up, 2.5 baths, family room, and dining area. The kitchen offers plenty of counter space including a peninsula with space for seating.

21. 2026-02-02
    status Pending
22. 2026-01-29
    historical 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    The Lowry plan is a 2-story home with 4 bedrooms up, 2.5 baths, family room, and dining area. The kitchen offers plenty of counter space including a peninsula with space for seating.

23. 2026-01-09
    listed $244,990 Active
24. 2026-01-08
    listed $244,990 Active 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    The Lowry plan is a 2-story home with 4 bedrooms up, 2.5 baths, family room, and dining area. The kitchen offers plenty of counter space including a peninsula with space for seating.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,007 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,483 · $374/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,476/yr (+$290/mo · 345.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,188
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,723
• − Property taxes: −$1,007
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,095
• − Management: −$2,095
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$1,684
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$404
• After-tax cash flow: $2,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-21 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-02-24 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-02-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-09 Listed $244,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-08 Listed $244,990 Zillow

Property tax history

+39.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,007 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.