7715 Walnut Tree Ln · Pinebrook, TX 77363

$242,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Manufactured · 207 Days on market

Built 2021 0.52 ac lot $114/sqft · 41% below area Est $410k · 41% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the perfect blend of country comfort and city convenience with this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home set on 0.5 unrestricted acres. Open-concept living space with a second living area makes the home feel large, but cozy. The kitchen is ready for cooking and entertaining on the large, beautiful island with built-in's on either side. Additional house perks are large primary bathroom with separate shower, guest bathroom with easy walk-in shower and a large office space off the hallway. This property provides privacy on a lot with large trees and yard space giving you the freedom to create the lifestyle you want —bring animals, add a workshop, park your RV, or simply enjoy the open space. With no restrictions, the possibilities are nearly endless. Property is equipped with public water, septic, electric and fiber. .. .all completely high fenced with a gate. Appliances convey.

Key facts

• Large office space
• Easy walk-in shower
• High fenced

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• LARGE BEAUTIFUL ISLAND
• LARGE PRIMARY BATHROOM
• EASY WALK-IN SHOWER
• LARGE OFFICE SPACE
• HIGH FENCED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $242k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-496/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (27.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Navasota ISD (town): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #600 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Grimes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Grimes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $68k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 207 days — a 12% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,234 (27.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 207 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.73%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $409,891
• List price: $242,000
• Delta: -40.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $26,401
• Equity at exit: $108,814

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $97,545
• Equity at exit: $167,695

Cash invested: $67,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77363

• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,762 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,269
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $764/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $-41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,815

Max offer price $234,702

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,500
• Closing costs: $7,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $242,000 Active 207 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $242,000 Active 206 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $242,000 Active 205 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $242,000 Active 204 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $242,000 Active 202 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 198 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 197 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $245,000 Active 196 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $245,000 Active 193 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 192 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 191 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 190 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 189 DOM
14. 2026-03-23
    price $245,000 912-char remark

    Show marketing remark (943 chars)

    Discover the perfect blend of country comfort and city convenience with this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home set on 0.5 unrestricted acres. Open-concept living space with a second living area makes the home feel large, but cozy. The kitchen is ready for cooking and entertaining on the large, beautiful island with built-in's on either side. Additional house perks are large primary bathroom with separate shower, guest bathroom with easy walk-in shower and a large office space off the hallway. This property provides privacy on a lot with large trees and yard space giving you the freedom to create the lifestyle you want —bring animals, add a workshop, park your RV, or simply enjoy the open space. With no restrictions, the possibilities are nearly endless. Property is equipped with public water, septic, electric and fiber....all completely high fenced with a gate. Appliances convey. Motivated and negotiable seller!

15. 2026-03-23
    price $245,000 943-char remark

    Show marketing remark (943 chars)

    Discover the perfect blend of country comfort and city convenience with this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home set on 0.5 unrestricted acres. Open-concept living space with a second living area makes the home feel large, but cozy. The kitchen is ready for cooking and entertaining on the large, beautiful island with built-in's on either side. Additional house perks are large primary bathroom with separate shower, guest bathroom with easy walk-in shower and a large office space off the hallway. This property provides privacy on a lot with large trees and yard space giving you the freedom to create the lifestyle you want —bring animals, add a workshop, park your RV, or simply enjoy the open space. With no restrictions, the possibilities are nearly endless. Property is equipped with public water, septic, electric and fiber....all completely high fenced with a gate. Appliances convey. Motivated and negotiable seller!

16. 2026-01-20
    price $246,000 912-char remark

    Show marketing remark (943 chars)

    Discover the perfect blend of country comfort and city convenience with this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home set on 0.5 unrestricted acres. Open-concept living space with a second living area makes the home feel large, but cozy. The kitchen is ready for cooking and entertaining on the large, beautiful island with built-in's on either side. Additional house perks are large primary bathroom with separate shower, guest bathroom with easy walk-in shower and a large office space off the hallway. This property provides privacy on a lot with large trees and yard space giving you the freedom to create the lifestyle you want —bring animals, add a workshop, park your RV, or simply enjoy the open space. With no restrictions, the possibilities are nearly endless. Property is equipped with public water, septic, electric and fiber....all completely high fenced with a gate. Appliances convey. Motivated and negotiable seller!

17. 2026-01-20
    price $246,000 943-char remark

    Show marketing remark (943 chars)

    Discover the perfect blend of country comfort and city convenience with this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home set on 0.5 unrestricted acres. Open-concept living space with a second living area makes the home feel large, but cozy. The kitchen is ready for cooking and entertaining on the large, beautiful island with built-in's on either side. Additional house perks are large primary bathroom with separate shower, guest bathroom with easy walk-in shower and a large office space off the hallway. This property provides privacy on a lot with large trees and yard space giving you the freedom to create the lifestyle you want —bring animals, add a workshop, park your RV, or simply enjoy the open space. With no restrictions, the possibilities are nearly endless. Property is equipped with public water, septic, electric and fiber....all completely high fenced with a gate. Appliances convey. Motivated and negotiable seller!

18. 2026-01-05
    price $258,000 912-char remark

    Show marketing remark (943 chars)

    Discover the perfect blend of country comfort and city convenience with this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home set on 0.5 unrestricted acres. Open-concept living space with a second living area makes the home feel large, but cozy. The kitchen is ready for cooking and entertaining on the large, beautiful island with built-in's on either side. Additional house perks are large primary bathroom with separate shower, guest bathroom with easy walk-in shower and a large office space off the hallway. This property provides privacy on a lot with large trees and yard space giving you the freedom to create the lifestyle you want —bring animals, add a workshop, park your RV, or simply enjoy the open space. With no restrictions, the possibilities are nearly endless. Property is equipped with public water, septic, electric and fiber....all completely high fenced with a gate. Appliances convey. Motivated and negotiable seller!

19. 2026-01-05
    price $258,000 943-char remark

    Show marketing remark (943 chars)

    Discover the perfect blend of country comfort and city convenience with this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home set on 0.5 unrestricted acres. Open-concept living space with a second living area makes the home feel large, but cozy. The kitchen is ready for cooking and entertaining on the large, beautiful island with built-in's on either side. Additional house perks are large primary bathroom with separate shower, guest bathroom with easy walk-in shower and a large office space off the hallway. This property provides privacy on a lot with large trees and yard space giving you the freedom to create the lifestyle you want —bring animals, add a workshop, park your RV, or simply enjoy the open space. With no restrictions, the possibilities are nearly endless. Property is equipped with public water, septic, electric and fiber....all completely high fenced with a gate. Appliances convey. Motivated and negotiable seller!

20. 2025-11-23
    listed $260,000 Active 943-char remark

    Show marketing remark (943 chars)

    Discover the perfect blend of country comfort and city convenience with this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home set on 0.5 unrestricted acres. Open-concept living space with a second living area makes the home feel large, but cozy. The kitchen is ready for cooking and entertaining on the large, beautiful island with built-in's on either side. Additional house perks are large primary bathroom with separate shower, guest bathroom with easy walk-in shower and a large office space off the hallway. This property provides privacy on a lot with large trees and yard space giving you the freedom to create the lifestyle you want —bring animals, add a workshop, park your RV, or simply enjoy the open space. With no restrictions, the possibilities are nearly endless. Property is equipped with public water, septic, electric and fiber....all completely high fenced with a gate. Appliances convey. Motivated and negotiable seller!

21. 2025-11-21
    listed $260,000 Active 912-char remark

    Show marketing remark (912 chars)

    Discover the perfect blend of country comfort and city convenience with this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home set on 0.5 unrestricted acres. Open-concept living space with a second living area makes the home feel large, but cozy. The kitchen is ready for cooking and entertaining on the large, beautiful island with built-in's on either side. Additional house perks are large primary bathroom with separate shower, guest bathroom with easy walk-in shower and a large office space off the hallway. This property provides privacy on a lot with large trees and yard space giving you the freedom to create the lifestyle you want —bring animals, add a workshop, park your RV, or simply enjoy the open space. With no restrictions, the possibilities are nearly endless. Property is equipped with public water, septic, electric and fiber. .. .all completely high fenced with a gate. Appliances convey.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $764 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,429 · $369/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,665/yr (+$305/mo · 479.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,148
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,556
• − Property taxes: −$764
• − Insurance: −$1,210
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,692
• − Management: −$1,692
• − Depreciation: −$7,040
• Taxable loss: −$4,805
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,153
• After-tax cash flow: $657/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Navasota ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832190
• Math proficiency: 31% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,326
• Composite: 26.5/100
• National rank: #7205
• State rank: #600 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pinebrook

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pinebrook, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,246

Population outlook (Grimes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,910 people
• By 2030: 29,539 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 30,648 · +6.0%
• By 2050: 31,698 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 34,351 · +18.8%
• By 2100: 33,565 · +16.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grimes

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.3) · D 19.5% · R 79.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.9pp toward R · 2008: -34.3pp · 2024: -60.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.3 2020: R+53.2 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+44.2 2008: R+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $245,000 BCSRMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $246,000 BCSRMLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $246,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $258,000 BCSRMLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $258,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-23 Listed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $260,000 BCSRMLS

Property tax history

+38.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $764 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.