704 Western Ln · Shenandoah Farms, VA 22630

$98,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,062 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1970 Poor condition 0.64 ac lot $92/sqft · 72% below area $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated in the Shenandoah Farms community of Front Royal, just roughly 1 mile to Shenandoah River. 704 Western Lane offers an opportunity for investors, builders, or buyers seeking a property with redevelopment potential. The parcel includes an existing structure; however, the structure is not considered safe and should not be entered by buyers or agents. The property currently utilizes a well and septic system that are shared with an adjacent property and are reportedly in use. Documentation related to these systems—including permits, surveys, agreements, or health department records—is not available. The seller has stated there are no known liens on the property. Buyers should perform their own due diligence to determine the location, functionality, legality, and adequacy of the well and septic systems for any future use. This property is located within a Sanitary District and is being sold strictly AS-IS with no warranties or guarantees, either expressed or implied. Purchasers are responsible for verifying all property details, including utilities, zoning, lot boundaries, access, structure condition, permitting requirements, and feasibility for renovation or new construction. Residents of Shenandoah Farms enjoy access to community features such as lakes, trails, playgrounds, and outdoor recreation areas, along with nearby public access to the Shenandoah River. Local parks and community resources further enhance the appeal of the surrounding area. Whether the plan is to renovate, rebuild, or develop, 704 Western Lane presents a chance to bring new vision to a property located within an established and amenity-rich community.

Key facts

• Local parks
• 0.64 acre lot
• Built 1970

Tags

• SHENANDOAH FARMS COMMUNITY
• WELL AND SEPTIC SYSTEM
• LOCAL PARKS
• AMENITY-RICH COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $98k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $996 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.5% vs local median 2.8% in Shenandoah Farms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#440 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Warren County Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #70 of 131 in VA (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Leslie Fox Keyser Elementary (math 51% / reading 62%, grade C+, #630 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 496 students, 66% FRL); Warren County High (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A, #40 of 319 statewide, top 15%, 833 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 34% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 56% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Warren County Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 283 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 170 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $678 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warren County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $98k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $92,120 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.56%
• DSCR: 2.94
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $352,689
• List price: $98,000
• Delta: -72.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
676 Western	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (-8%)	7mo	$355,000	$362	74
207 Gary Ln	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-5%)	3mo	$280,000	$278	68
111 Gary Ln	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (-8%)	23mo	$337,500	$344	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $58,648
• Equity at exit: $14,612

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.68×
• Total profit: $183,205
• Equity at exit: $8,473

Cash invested: $27,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22630

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 283
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,094 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$514
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $890/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $996

Break-even live

Break-even rent $833

Max offer price $98,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,052	-5% $1,024	+0% $996	+5% $968	+10% $941
Rent	-10% $831	-5% $913	+0% $996	+5% $1,079	+10% $1,162
Rate	-1.0pp $1,045	-0.5pp $1,021	base $996	+0.5pp $971	+1.0pp $945

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,500
• Closing costs: $2,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $98,000 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $98,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $98,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $98,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $98,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $98,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $98,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $98,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $108,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $108,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $108,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $108,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $108,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $108,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-04-08
    price $108,000 1668-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1668 chars)

    Situated in the Shenandoah Farms community of Front Royal, just roughly 1 mile to Shenandoah River. 704 Western Lane offers an opportunity for investors, builders, or buyers seeking a property with redevelopment potential. The parcel includes an existing structure; however, the structure is not considered safe and should not be entered by buyers or agents. The property currently utilizes a well and septic system that are shared with an adjacent property and are reportedly in use. Documentation related to these systems—including permits, surveys, agreements, or health department records—is not available. The seller has stated there are no known liens on the property. Buyers should perform their own due diligence to determine the location, functionality, legality, and adequacy of the well and septic systems for any future use. This property is located within a Sanitary District and is being sold strictly AS-IS with no warranties or guarantees, either expressed or implied. Purchasers are responsible for verifying all property details, including utilities, zoning, lot boundaries, access, structure condition, permitting requirements, and feasibility for renovation or new construction. Residents of Shenandoah Farms enjoy access to community features such as lakes, trails, playgrounds, and outdoor recreation areas, along with nearby public access to the Shenandoah River. Local parks and community resources further enhance the appeal of the surrounding area. Whether the plan is to renovate, rebuild, or develop, 704 Western Lane presents a chance to bring new vision to a property located within an established and amenity-rich community.

16. 2026-04-08
    listed $125,000 Active 1668-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1668 chars)

    Situated in the Shenandoah Farms community of Front Royal, just roughly 1 mile to Shenandoah River. 704 Western Lane offers an opportunity for investors, builders, or buyers seeking a property with redevelopment potential. The parcel includes an existing structure; however, the structure is not considered safe and should not be entered by buyers or agents. The property currently utilizes a well and septic system that are shared with an adjacent property and are reportedly in use. Documentation related to these systems—including permits, surveys, agreements, or health department records—is not available. The seller has stated there are no known liens on the property. Buyers should perform their own due diligence to determine the location, functionality, legality, and adequacy of the well and septic systems for any future use. This property is located within a Sanitary District and is being sold strictly AS-IS with no warranties or guarantees, either expressed or implied. Purchasers are responsible for verifying all property details, including utilities, zoning, lot boundaries, access, structure condition, permitting requirements, and feasibility for renovation or new construction. Residents of Shenandoah Farms enjoy access to community features such as lakes, trails, playgrounds, and outdoor recreation areas, along with nearby public access to the Shenandoah River. Local parks and community resources further enhance the appeal of the surrounding area. Whether the plan is to renovate, rebuild, or develop, 704 Western Lane presents a chance to bring new vision to a property located within an established and amenity-rich community.

17. 2026-04-08
    historical $125,000 1668-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1668 chars)

    Situated in the Shenandoah Farms community of Front Royal, just roughly 1 mile to Shenandoah River. 704 Western Lane offers an opportunity for investors, builders, or buyers seeking a property with redevelopment potential. The parcel includes an existing structure; however, the structure is not considered safe and should not be entered by buyers or agents. The property currently utilizes a well and septic system that are shared with an adjacent property and are reportedly in use. Documentation related to these systems—including permits, surveys, agreements, or health department records—is not available. The seller has stated there are no known liens on the property. Buyers should perform their own due diligence to determine the location, functionality, legality, and adequacy of the well and septic systems for any future use. This property is located within a Sanitary District and is being sold strictly AS-IS with no warranties or guarantees, either expressed or implied. Purchasers are responsible for verifying all property details, including utilities, zoning, lot boundaries, access, structure condition, permitting requirements, and feasibility for renovation or new construction. Residents of Shenandoah Farms enjoy access to community features such as lakes, trails, playgrounds, and outdoor recreation areas, along with nearby public access to the Shenandoah River. Local parks and community resources further enhance the appeal of the surrounding area. Whether the plan is to renovate, rebuild, or develop, 704 Western Lane presents a chance to bring new vision to a property located within an established and amenity-rich community.

18. 2026-04-04
    price $108,000 1667-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1667 chars)

    Situated in the Shenandoah Farms community of Front Royal, just roughly 1 mile to Shenandoah River. 704 Western Lane offers an opportunity for investors, builders, or buyers seeking a property with redevelopment potential. The parcel includes an existing structure; however, the structure is not considered safe and should not be entered by buyers or agents. The property currently utilizes a well and septic system that are shared with an adjacent property and are reportedly in use. Documentation related to these systems—including permits, surveys, agreements, or health department records—is not available. The seller has stated there are no known liens on the property. Buyers should perform their own due diligence to determine the location, functionality, legality, and adequacy of the well and septic systems for any future use. This property is located within a Sanitary District and is being sold strictly AS-IS with no warranties or guarantees, either expressed or implied. Purchasers are responsible for verifying all property details, including utilities, zoning, lot boundaries, access, structure condition, permitting requirements, and feasibility for renovation or new construction. Residents of Shenandoah Farms enjoy access to community features such as lakes, trails, playgrounds, and outdoor recreation areas, along with nearby public access to the Shenandoah River. Local parks and community resources further enhance the appeal of the surrounding area. Whether the plan is to renovate, rebuild, or develop, 704 Western Lane presents a chance to bring new vision to a property located within an established and amenity-rich community.

19. 2026-03-08
    listed $125,000 Active 1667-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1667 chars)

    Situated in the Shenandoah Farms community of Front Royal, just roughly 1 mile to Shenandoah River. 704 Western Lane offers an opportunity for investors, builders, or buyers seeking a property with redevelopment potential. The parcel includes an existing structure; however, the structure is not considered safe and should not be entered by buyers or agents. The property currently utilizes a well and septic system that are shared with an adjacent property and are reportedly in use. Documentation related to these systems—including permits, surveys, agreements, or health department records—is not available. The seller has stated there are no known liens on the property. Buyers should perform their own due diligence to determine the location, functionality, legality, and adequacy of the well and septic systems for any future use. This property is located within a Sanitary District and is being sold strictly AS-IS with no warranties or guarantees, either expressed or implied. Purchasers are responsible for verifying all property details, including utilities, zoning, lot boundaries, access, structure condition, permitting requirements, and feasibility for renovation or new construction. Residents of Shenandoah Farms enjoy access to community features such as lakes, trails, playgrounds, and outdoor recreation areas, along with nearby public access to the Shenandoah River. Local parks and community resources further enhance the appeal of the surrounding area. Whether the plan is to renovate, rebuild, or develop, 704 Western Lane presents a chance to bring new vision to a property located within an established and amenity-rich community.

20. 2026-01-23
    soldstatus $53,025
21. 2023-03-07
    soldstatus $30,000
22. 2020-02-06
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $890 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $890 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,125
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,490
• − Property taxes: −$890
• − Insurance: −$490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,010
• − Management: −$2,010
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$2,851
• Taxable income: $11,036
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,649
• After-tax cash flow: $9,305/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This abandoned property requires extensive repairs and renovations to be considered habitable and marketable.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Structural damage and possible leakage
• Major exterior walls — Structural damage and debris
• Major landscaping — Overgrown vegetation and debris
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No visible systems

Value-add opportunities

• Both Clear debris and overgrown vegetation — Improves safety and curb appeal
• Both Repair roof and exterior walls — Essential for structural integrity and safety
• Both Install HVAC and mechanical systems — Essential for comfort and energy efficiency
• Both Paint interior walls and install flooring — Enhances living space and value
• Both Renovate bathrooms and kitchen — Essential for functionality and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Structural damage and possible leakage	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior walls · Structural damage and debris	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown vegetation and debris	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No visible systems	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Clear debris and overgrown vegetation — Improves safety and curb appeal ↑
• Both Repair roof and exterior walls — Essential for structural integrity and safety ↑
• Both Install HVAC and mechanical systems — Essential for comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Paint interior walls and install flooring — Enhances living space and value ↑
• Both Renovate bathrooms and kitchen — Essential for functionality and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $61,504
• Composite: 49.22/100
• National rank: #2039
• State rank: #70 of 131 in VA

Livability — Shenandoah Farms

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #440
• US rank: #18845

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shenandoah Farms, VA
• County: Warren County · 35,615 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 35,615
• Household income: $84,631
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 460.0

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,045 people
• By 2030: 43,257 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 45,088 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 45,567 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 46,081 · +9.6%
• By 2100: 42,093 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.6% · R 68.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+35.3 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+20.5 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 319.8136
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.30%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+332.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $108,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $125,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-08 Coming Soon $125,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $108,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-08 Listed $125,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $53,025 Public Records
• 2023-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2020-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $890 · +74.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.