2804 Brushy Lake Dr · Fort Worth, TX 76179

$324,299

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,176 sqft · Other · 65 Days on market

Built 2025 7,187 sqft lot $52/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LENNAR - Lonestar Collection at Northpointe - Conroe Floorplan

Key facts

• 7,187 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $324k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6 ($-73/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $323k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Eagle Mt-Saginaw ISD (urban): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #361 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Pointe El (math 49% / reading 49%, grade D, #926 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 669 students, 44% FRL); Wayside Middle (math 42% / reading 42%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 1,077 students, 39% FRL); Boswell H S (math 49% / reading 62%, grade C, #364 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 2,547 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1074 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,491 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-56,756
• Equity at exit: $48,354

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-65,142
• Equity at exit: $28,039

Cash invested: $90,804 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76179

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1074
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,505 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,701
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,166/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $-6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,513

Max offer price $323,229

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $178	-5% $86	+0% $-6	+5% $-98	+10% $-190
Rent	-10% $-204	-5% $-105	+0% $-6	+5% $93	+10% $192
Rate	-1.0pp $157	-0.5pp $76	base $-6	+0.5pp $-90	+1.0pp $-176

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,075
• Closing costs: $9,729
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10212 Regal Bend Ln Saginaw, TX	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,395	$1.28	19d	1	0.13mi
2800 Slatewood Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,045	$1.41	1d	1	0.14mi
2800 Slatewood Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,045	$1.41	3d	1	0.14mi
2916 Tibbles Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,899	$1.32	26d	1	0.26mi
9833 Trusler Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,050	$1.41	1d	1	0.26mi
2629 Turtle Dove Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1534	$2,075	$1.35	8d	1	0.30mi
9709 Trusler Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,250	$1.56	26d	1	0.38mi
10021 Elkhorn Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.0	2238	$2,595	$1.16	4d	1	0.39mi
10021 Elkhorn Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.0	2238	$2,595	$1.16	1d	1	0.39mi
2528 Northcote Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	2277	$2,306	$1.01	1d	1	0.42mi
9925 Little Tree Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	2081	$2,600	$1.25	26d	1	0.46mi
2521 Birchcrest Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.0	2371	$2,795	$1.18	26d	1	0.50mi
2521 Bunkerton Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1674	$2,450	$1.46	26d	1	0.59mi
2500 Bunkerton Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1674	$1,909	$1.14	26d	1	0.60mi
2633 Oneida Ln Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.0	2059	$2,850	$1.38	26d	1	0.70mi
2633 Oneida Ln Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.0	2059	$2,850	$1.38	1d	1	0.70mi
2644 Oneida Ln Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.0	2260	$2,800	$1.24	18d	1	0.74mi
10617 Kono Trl Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,500	$1.39	26d	1	0.75mi
10616 Kono Trl Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.0	2444	$2,700	$1.10	14d	1	0.77mi
3053 Titan Springs Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$2,320	$1.39	26d	1	0.81mi
2513 Ponca Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.0	2070	$2,495	$1.21	4d	1	0.82mi
2520 Shakopee St Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1731	$2,620	$1.51	1d	1	0.86mi
10609 Potawatomi Ln Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.0	2260	$3,200	$1.42	1d	1	0.87mi
10609 Potawatomi Ln Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.0	2260	$3,200	$1.42	26d	1	0.87mi
3012 Tooley Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1719	$2,200	$1.28	26d	1	0.90mi
2636 Keokuk St Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1810	$2,500	$1.38	26d	1	0.92mi
9108 Lookout Pt Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1711	$2,100	$1.23	9d	1	1.12mi
9021 Eagles Landing Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,295	$1.24	22d	1	1.23mi
8928 Puerto Vista Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1631	$2,050	$1.26	26d	1	1.24mi
8925 Old Rawhide Ln Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1809	$2,295	$1.27	14d	1	1.25mi
8916 Old Rawhide Ln Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,250	$1.27	26d	1	1.26mi
6212 Flour Mill Run Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,500	$1.37	26d	1	1.32mi
5864 Mount Plymouth Pt Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,100	$1.28	26d	1	1.33mi
8901 Timber Gulch Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,195	$1.52	14d	1	1.33mi
5404 Thornbush Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.5	2923	$2,900	$0.99	26d	1	1.36mi
10916 Hopewell Cv Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$2,100	$1.40	26d	1	1.37mi
11012 Dillon St Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1735	$2,200	$1.27	14d	1	1.43mi
8700 Smokehouse Dr Fort Worth, TX	5.0	2.0	2133	$2,495	$1.17	26d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-07
   price $324,299
3. 2026-03-03
   price $334,299
4. 2026-02-26
   price $335,299
5. 2026-02-14
   price $341,299
6. 2026-01-13
   listed $357,299 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,166 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,935 · $495/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,769/yr (+$397/mo · 409.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,059
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,166
• − Property taxes: −$1,166
• − Insurance: −$1,621
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,405
• − Management: −$2,405
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$9,434
• Taxable loss: −$5,762
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,383
• After-tax cash flow: $1,310/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eagle Mt-Saginaw ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817700
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $72,781
• Composite: 35.41/100
• National rank: #4945
• State rank: #361 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Worth, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 80,090
• Household income: $107,428
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1494.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Black 12% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.12%
• Current HPI: 237.6676
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.51%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $324,299 NTREIS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $334,299 NTREIS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $335,299 NTREIS
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $341,299 NTREIS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $357,299 NTREIS