39 Manser Dr · Eggertsville, NY 14226

$249,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,209 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1950 4,800 sqft lot Est $296k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Vinyl sided cape in established neighborhood. 1.5 car detached garage. Great potential. Ready for your decorating touches. Needs a substantial amount of work. Not a good fit for standard FHA or VA financing. Seller can do no repairs- property to be sold as-is. Subject to short sale.

Key facts

• Updated electric
• Updated windows
• Updated roof

Tags

• UPDATED ROOF
• UPDATED FURNACE
• UPDATED HOT WATER TANK
• UPDATED ELECTRIC
• BASEMENT WATERPROOFING
• UPDATED WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 40 x 120, rectangular, near public transit, on a city street; Rain water collection feature

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Approximately 1.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; Circuit breaker electric
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt architectural shingle roof; Poured foundation; Copper and PEX plumbing; Existing structure
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Fully fenced yard; Private yard; Open patio/porch; Patio; Porch; See remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Luxury vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Accessible bedroom; Breakfast bar; Ceiling fan(s); Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Bedroom on main level; 6 total rooms; Full basement with sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $322 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (0.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.5% in Eggertsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#34 in NY, #534 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-.
• Sweet Home Central School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #342 of 590 in NY (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 143 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $250k implies a 432% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $249,385 (0.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.53%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $296,205
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39 Manser Dr	0.00mi	4/1.0	1,209 (0%)	0mo	$248,515	$206	100
148 Hillcrest Dr	0.20mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,302 (+8%)	6mo	$212,000	$163	66
630 Emerson Dr	0.11mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,033 (-15%)	1mo	$302,500	$293	63
362 Meyer Rd	0.58mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,247 (+3%)	3mo	$208,000	$167	60
747 Sweet Home Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (+12%)	1mo	$332,150	$245	59
39 Hartford Rd	0.44mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,060 (-12%)	1mo	$265,000	$250	53
182 Woodcrest Dr	0.26mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,380 (+14%)	5mo	$246,000	$178	53
27 Castle Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,321 (+9%)	1mo	$342,000	$259	47
31 Castle Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,078 (-11%)	2mo	$340,000	$315	44
1871 Eggert Rd	0.66mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (-9%)	9mo	$230,000	$209	42
98 Rosemont Dr	0.60mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,064 (-12%)	8mo	$300,000	$282	40
1789 Eggert Rd	0.73mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,368 (+13%)	4mo	$235,000	$172	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-6,786
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $80,479
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14226

• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,494 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$233 /mo · $2,796/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $322

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,086

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $464	-5% $393	+0% $322	+5% $252	+10% $181
Rent	-10% $125	-5% $224	+0% $322	+5% $421	+10% $520
Rate	-1.0pp $448	-0.5pp $386	base $322	+0.5pp $258	+1.0pp $192

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
182 Woodcrest Dr Amherst, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$2,300	$1.67	20d	1	0.24mi
212 Dellwood Rd Buffalo, NY	4.0	4.0	1209	$3,400	$2.81	3d	2	0.78mi
1257 Brighton Rd Tonawanda, NY	4.0	1.0	1268	$2,500	$1.97	17d	1	0.93mi
1257 Brighton Rd Tonawanda, NY	4.0	1.0	1268	$2,500	$1.97	4d	1	0.93mi
325 Kaymar Dr Unit 325 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1073	$1,695	$1.58	45d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   price $249,900
3. 2026-04-04
   listed $239,900 Active
4. 2016-08-26
   soldstatus $47,000 Closed Sale or Rented 283-char remark

   Show marketing remark (283 chars)

   Vinyl sided cape in established neighborhood. 1.5 car detached garage. Great potential. Ready for your decorating touches. Needs a substantial amount of work. Not a good fit for standard FHA or VA financing. Seller can do no repairs- property to be sold as-is. Subject to short sale.

5. 2016-07-29
   soldstatus $47,000
6. 2016-07-06
   status Pending Sale 283-char remark

   Show marketing remark (283 chars)

   Vinyl sided cape in established neighborhood. 1.5 car detached garage. Great potential. Ready for your decorating touches. Needs a substantial amount of work. Not a good fit for standard FHA or VA financing. Seller can do no repairs- property to be sold as-is. Subject to short sale.

7. 2016-04-20
   historical Under Contract- Do Not Show 283-char remark

   Show marketing remark (283 chars)

   Vinyl sided cape in established neighborhood. 1.5 car detached garage. Great potential. Ready for your decorating touches. Needs a substantial amount of work. Not a good fit for standard FHA or VA financing. Seller can do no repairs- property to be sold as-is. Subject to short sale.

8. 2016-02-29
   price $59,000 283-char remark

   Show marketing remark (283 chars)

   Vinyl sided cape in established neighborhood. 1.5 car detached garage. Great potential. Ready for your decorating touches. Needs a substantial amount of work. Not a good fit for standard FHA or VA financing. Seller can do no repairs- property to be sold as-is. Subject to short sale.

9. 2016-02-29
   status Active 283-char remark

   Show marketing remark (283 chars)

   Vinyl sided cape in established neighborhood. 1.5 car detached garage. Great potential. Ready for your decorating touches. Needs a substantial amount of work. Not a good fit for standard FHA or VA financing. Seller can do no repairs- property to be sold as-is. Subject to short sale.

10. 2016-02-25
    historical Under Contract- Do Not Show 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Vinyl sided cape in established neighborhood. 1.5 car detached garage. Great potential. Ready for your decorating touches. Needs a substantial amount of work. Not a good fit for standard FHA or VA financing. Seller can do no repairs- property to be sold as-is. Subject to short sale.

11. 2015-05-13
    listed $79,900 Active 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Vinyl sided cape in established neighborhood. 1.5 car detached garage. Great potential. Ready for your decorating touches. Needs a substantial amount of work. Not a good fit for standard FHA or VA financing. Seller can do no repairs- property to be sold as-is. Subject to short sale.

12. 2005-01-06
    soldstatus $84,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,796 · $233/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,510 · $292/mo
• Expected delta: +$714/yr (+$59/mo · 25.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,926
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$2,796
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,394
• − Management: −$2,394
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$176
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$42
• After-tax cash flow: $3,912/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sweet Home Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,509
• Composite: 44.67/100
• National rank: #2765
• State rank: #342 of 590 in NY

Livability — Eggertsville

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #34
• US rank: #534

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime C- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 29,482
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 29,159
• Household income: $84,325
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 856.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 10% Asian 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, India
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -270.71%
• Current HPI: 331.1929
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.01%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+195.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $249,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $239,900 WNYREIS
• 2016-08-26 Sold (MLS) $47,000 WNYREIS
• 2016-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
• 2016-07-06 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2016-04-20 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2016-02-29 Price Changed $59,000 WNYREIS
• 2016-02-29 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2016-02-25 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2015-05-13 Listed $79,900 WNYREIS
• 2005-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $84,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,796 · -21.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.