634 Van Buren Ave · St. Paul, MN 55104

$200,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,281 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1882 4,965 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the heart of Saint Paul, this well-maintained duplex offers a fantastic opportunity for both investors and owner-occupants alike. With separate upper and lower units, the layout provides flexibility for rental income, multi-generational living, or owner-occupied investment. The main-level unit features two bedrooms and one full bath, along with a covered porch- perfect for enjoying morning coffee or relaxing in the evening. The upper-level unit also offers two spacious bedrooms and one full bath, plus a private deck and screened in porch overlooking the large backyard, creating an inviting outdoor retreat. New flooring and fresh paint throughout both units give the home a clean,

Key facts

• 4,965 sq ft lot
• Built 1882
• Listed 51 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $499 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1882 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $194,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1882 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.69%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,778
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $34,687
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55104

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,348 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,688/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $499

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,717

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
255 Western Ave N Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$3,700	$3.53	2d	23	1.03mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   historical Contingent - Inspection
3. 2026-03-24
   price $200,000
4. 2026-03-09
   status Active
5. 2026-03-02
   historical Contingent - Inspection
6. 2026-02-26
   listed $215,000 Active
7. 2026-02-24
   historical $215,000
8. 2008-11-07
   historical
9. 2008-07-29
   listed $47,500
10. 2006-12-22
    soldstatus $255,000
11. 2006-11-29
    historical
12. 2006-11-28
    soldstatus $255,000
13. 2006-10-31
    listed $259,900
14. 2006-08-15
    historical
15. 2006-06-14
    listed $160,000
16. 2005-08-19
    soldstatus $180,000
17. 1998-10-21
    soldstatus $25,000
18. 1993-09-02
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,688 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,688 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,181
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,688
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,254
• − Management: −$2,254
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $2,963
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$711
• After-tax cash flow: $5,278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 45,762
• Household income: $75,712
• Rent vs Own: 46.9% rent · 53.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2116.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -532.26%
• Current HPI: 245.6146
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+700.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $200,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Listed $215,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Coming Soon $215,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-11-07 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-07-29 Listed $47,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records
• 2006-11-29 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-11-28 Sold (MLS) $255,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-31 Listed $259,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-08-15 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-14 Listed $160,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 1998-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 1993-09-02 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,688 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.